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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: WDC habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, August 05, 2026
Next confirmed WDC earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 17–17 trading days before the report (median 17).
Projected watch window: Jul 13 → Jul 13 · most likely around Mon Jul 13.
Projected watch window: Jul 13 → Jul 13 · most likely around Mon Jul 13.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Monday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 8% of the last 13 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.43 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -4.9% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.6% | 25 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.7% | 13 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-1.7%
Median reaction
-0.7%
Avg |move|
5.6%
Up rate
48%
Avg drift T-20
+5.1%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +5.1% | +4.5% | 14.9 | -25.2% / +58.1% | 70% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.9% | +1.7% | 6.6 | -10.2% / +17.0% | 61% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.7% | -0.5% | 6.4 | -12.8% / +13.3% | 39% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -1.7% | -0.7% | 7.0 | -18.2% / +10.2% | 48% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.7% | +0.5% | 5.0 | -7.3% / +15.3% | 52% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.7% | +3.5% | 10.3 | -22.6% / +23.1% | 59% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.4% | +8.0% | 9.9 | -11.7% / +35.0% | 83% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -10.1% | -8.9% | 8.0 | -24.9% / +4.7% | 9% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday n<10 | 1 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | -0.4% | -1.4% | 1.9 | 33% |
| Wednesday | 13 | -0.7% | +0.4% | 8.4 | 62% |
| Monday n<10 | 4 | -0.9% | -0.5% | 2.1 | 50% |
| Thursday | 25 | -2.6% | -2.2% | 7.1 | 40% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | -0.1% | -1.7% | 5.3 | 44% |
| Sideways | 10 | -0.6% | +0.8% | 6.8 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -0.9% | +0.2% | 4.9 | 50% |
| Strong Up | 17 | -2.8% | -0.7% | 7.6 | 41% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -4.9% | -3.2% | 8.9 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 25 | -1.6% | -0.7% | 7.4 | 48% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 6.5 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 6.6 | 47% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +11.6% | +10.7% | 14.2 | 88% |
| Sideways | 10 | +8.8% | +5.2% | 17.5 | 70% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | +2.4% | +5.2% | 6.2 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -3.9% | -2.7% | 8.3 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -11.8% | -12.9% | 11.1 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-03 Monday | NEGATIVE | Disclosed a network-security incident (identified Mar 26 2023) in which a third party accessed systems, forcing services incl. My Cloud offline weeks before fiscal Q3 2023 earnings | 17d | -1.2% | -3.4% | -11.9% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 17–17 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=1) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 8.7% | -0.7% | -6.5% | 0.08x |
| 2026-01-29 | 9.6% | -10.1% | -0.1% | 1.05x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | 1 | +45.9% | -6.5% | -0.7% | +7.5% | +23.1% | +27.4% | -7.0% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% |
| 2026-01-29 Thursday | 2 | +58.1% | -0.1% | -10.1% | +4.0% | +11.8% | +11.3% | -14.7% | 89% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | 1 | +5.2% | +12.6% | +8.8% | +8.9% | +8.7% | +29.2% | -4.1% | 67% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +11.9% | +4.0% | +10.2% | -6.2% | +2.5% | +13.1% | +2.4% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 3 | +7.3% | +1.9% | +0.2% | +0.8% | +19.6% | +21.6% | -0.6% | 106% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +23% |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | +3.5% | +5.8% | +4.8% | -1.6% | -3.1% | +15.1% | +0.8% | 36% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2024-10-24 Thursday | -5.9% | +9.4% | +4.7% | -6.0% | -5.1% | +10.8% | -6.1% | 20% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | -14.1% | -10.0% | -9.7% | -7.1% | +3.1% | -2.3% | -21.3% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2024-04-25 Thursday | +2.7% | +2.2% | +2.8% | -2.3% | +3.9% | +10.7% | -3.5% | 38% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +312% | |
| 2024-01-25 Thursday | +14.3% | -2.4% | -3.5% | -1.4% | -3.7% | +0.2% | -12.3% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +37% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | -8.1% | -6.7% | -4.0% | +7.5% | +16.8% | +13.7% | -8.1% | 51% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +12.2% | -1.3% | +0.7% | +1.5% | -3.4% | +4.0% | -8.7% | 30% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2023-05-08 Monday | -10.2% | -2.8% | -1.7% | +9.4% | +17.5% | +19.1% | -6.3% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2023-01-31 Tuesday | +39.3% | -0.2% | -1.4% | -0.6% | -12.0% | +2.9% | -13.6% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -225% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | +6.7% | -0.3% | +3.4% | -5.0% | +5.2% | +19.3% | -3.8% | 42% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -49% | |
| 2022-08-05 Friday | +4.1% | -0.7% | +1.0% | +6.5% | -12.5% | +8.2% | -14.2% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | +3.9% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +15.3% | +14.3% | +20.2% | -1.4% | 35% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2022-01-27 Thursday | -18.6% | -8.8% | -7.3% | +4.8% | +6.1% | +6.9% | -9.7% | 30% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | +1.5% | -12.8% | -8.7% | +5.3% | +10.5% | +9.0% | -13.6% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | -6.3% | -0.1% | +3.3% | -0.5% | -9.0% | +7.8% | -9.1% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +44% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | +6.6% | +2.8% | -0.7% | -1.4% | +7.4% | +9.0% | -9.9% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +49% | |
| 2021-01-28 Thursday | 1 | +9.0% | +11.4% | +7.2% | +5.0% | +21.4% | +35.0% | +4.7% | 58% | Sideways / High (>25) | +29% |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +6.2% | -2.0% | -1.8% | -1.6% | +18.8% | +18.4% | -5.7% | 40% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | +3.9% | -12.1% | -16.1% | -1.4% | +4.2% | -11.7% | -24.6% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2020-04-30 Thursday | 1 | +20.7% | -12.1% | -12.2% | +3.4% | +9.6% | +0.5% | -18.3% | 75% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -7% |
| 2020-01-30 Thursday | +6.3% | +3.3% | -2.2% | +4.9% | -15.2% | +6.5% | -22.7% | 42% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +10.4% | -7.8% | -16.9% | +4.0% | -2.4% | -6.7% | -24.0% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +11.5% | +5.0% | +3.0% | -4.8% | -3.7% | +8.6% | -4.6% | 43% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2019-04-29 Monday | +5.0% | -2.3% | +1.3% | -3.0% | -22.6% | +5.1% | -21.6% | 33% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -64% | |
| 2019-01-24 Thursday | +16.1% | +13.3% | +7.5% | +4.2% | +14.7% | +23.4% | +3.5% | 60% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -7.3% | -12.2% | -18.2% | +6.5% | +7.1% | -8.2% | -24.9% | 31% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2018-07-26 Thursday | +0.4% | -3.4% | -7.7% | -3.7% | -10.9% | -2.7% | -20.2% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2018-04-26 Thursday | -3.2% | -1.9% | -8.0% | -4.8% | +8.1% | +0.8% | -13.6% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2018-01-25 Thursday | +10.7% | -1.4% | +1.8% | -2.2% | -0.5% | +3.6% | -11.5% | 17% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +3.1% | -1.1% | -2.5% | +1.7% | +6.5% | +4.4% | -5.7% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | -1.9% | -4.2% | -7.5% | -0.5% | +5.3% | -1.9% | -14.8% | 28% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | +5.3% | +5.7% | +3.9% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +6.2% | -1.8% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2017-01-25 Wednesday | +14.6% | -0.2% | -1.9% | +0.9% | -4.9% | +2.1% | -7.2% | 29% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2016-10-26 Wednesday | -2.6% | +3.6% | +5.4% | -7.3% | +2.5% | +10.3% | -4.0% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +17.8% | -5.5% | -11.5% | -6.8% | -2.2% | -5.0% | -19.8% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | -2.5% | -7.6% | -11.3% | -6.7% | +8.6% | -2.1% | -24.0% | 43% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | -25.2% | +1.0% | +5.0% | +2.4% | -8.5% | +12.0% | -15.4% | 48% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | 1 | -15.0% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +1.1% | -9.1% | +2.6% | -11.0% | 38% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -0% |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | +0.4% | +8.5% | +9.8% | -2.0% | -9.0% | +12.3% | -5.5% | 16% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-04-28 Tuesday | +5.9% | -3.5% | -2.1% | +1.0% | -1.5% | +2.1% | -5.5% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2015-01-27 Tuesday | -13.4% | +6.8% | +2.2% | +0.9% | +6.3% | +14.6% | -2.1% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_WDC.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.