Tour
396
Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ADTN has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, August 03, 2026
Next confirmed ADTN earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.85 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.8% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -4.2% | 24 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday expl. | -11.1% | 9 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-3.9%
Median reaction
-3.0%
Avg |move|
7.5%
Up rate
37%
Avg drift T-20
+2.8%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.8% | +1.7% | 13.5 | -43.0% / +41.8% | 63% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.8% | +1.5% | 7.2 | -10.8% / +24.2% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.9% | +0.1% | 7.1 | -27.4% / +15.8% | 54% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -3.9% | -3.0% | 9.3 | -26.5% / +14.0% | 37% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.4% | +1.7% | 5.7 | -11.8% / +18.4% | 65% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.2% | +1.3% | 9.4 | -15.1% / +27.6% | 61% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +7.7% | +8.1% | 8.3 | -15.0% / +22.8% | 87% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -11.0% | -8.8% | 9.2 | -33.1% / +4.6% | 9% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 1 | +7.0% | +7.0% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 16 | -1.4% | -3.1% | 9.0 | 31% |
| Tuesday | 19 | -2.3% | 0.0% | 6.2 | 47% |
| Monday n<10 | 9 | -11.1% | -14.6% | 10.7 | 22% |
| Friday n<10 | 1 | -19.2% | -19.2% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 10 | -0.2% | +1.8% | 8.9 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -3.8% | -1.3% | 9.4 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -4.8% | -1.2% | 6.8 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 18 | -5.0% | -4.4% | 10.1 | 28% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -5.4% | -1.3% | 8.4 | 22% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -3.2% | -2.8% | 10.0 | 33% |
| Low (<15) | 16 | -3.8% | -2.1% | 9.9 | 44% |
| Medium (15-25) | 24 | -4.2% | -3.1% | 8.8 | 33% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 18 | +8.4% | +5.1% | 15.0 | 72% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +3.0% | 0.0% | 7.6 | 44% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -0.1% | +3.0% | 5.0 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -1.8% | -1.9% | 8.5 | 50% |
| Mild Up | 10 | -4.1% | +0.7% | 14.8 | 70% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 16.2% | -16.6% | -13.5% | 1.02x |
| 2026-02-25 | 22.6% | -7.3% | +2.9% | 0.32x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 Monday | +41.8% | -13.5% | -16.6% | +2.5% | +19.4% | +8.9% | -23.1% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +50% | |
| 2026-02-25 Wednesday | +11.6% | +2.9% | -7.3% | +3.4% | +27.6% | +19.4% | -13.5% | 36% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +95% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | +13.5% | -12.6% | -24.2% | +1.4% | +2.8% | -12.4% | -31.8% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -19% | |
| 2025-08-04 Monday | -2.0% | -3.5% | -14.6% | +5.8% | +16.1% | +0.2% | -16.1% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -100% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +9.8% | -0.5% | -3.0% | +5.7% | +3.2% | +8.9% | -5.8% | 61% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +200% |
| 2025-02-26 Wednesday | +10.2% | +15.8% | -0.4% | +0.2% | -12.6% | +17.2% | -21.8% | 55% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2024-11-07 Thursday | 1 | +31.3% | +3.3% | +7.0% | -1.4% | +4.3% | +19.9% | +0.4% | 66% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -11% |
| 2024-08-05 Monday | +10.1% | -7.6% | -18.8% | +0.6% | +15.2% | +1.9% | -19.8% | 54% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -167% | |
| 2024-05-07 Tuesday | 1 | +5.1% | +0.2% | +1.5% | +6.6% | -2.2% | +8.9% | -5.0% | 61% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +81% |
| 2024-02-26 Monday | 1 | -9.2% | -2.9% | -1.1% | -3.0% | -14.9% | +4.8% | -17.4% | 69% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -1047% |
| 2023-11-06 Monday | -7.5% | -27.4% | -26.5% | +1.5% | +12.1% | -15.0% | -33.0% | 53% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -33% | |
| 2023-08-04 Friday | -14.5% | -21.6% | -19.2% | +10.0% | +19.5% | -1.6% | -22.6% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2023-05-08 Monday | 1 | -43.0% | -3.5% | +2.1% | -1.1% | +4.9% | +8.3% | -8.3% | 96% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -243% |
| 2023-02-21 Tuesday | -9.8% | -0.1% | +2.4% | +3.1% | -5.2% | +8.8% | -8.3% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -25% | |
| 2022-11-08 Tuesday | 1 | +3.6% | -0.7% | -10.0% | +18.4% | +5.2% | +7.3% | -10.2% | 58% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -42% |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +31.3% | -0.6% | -6.5% | +5.0% | +1.0% | +3.5% | -9.8% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +67% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | -4.2% | -0.0% | -4.4% | +4.1% | +17.6% | +13.0% | -7.4% | 29% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +321% | |
| 2022-02-02 Wednesday | -13.5% | +3.0% | +6.1% | +6.7% | +1.4% | +14.8% | +0.6% | 45% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +700% | |
| 2021-11-01 Monday | +2.5% | -2.2% | +1.1% | +7.7% | +6.3% | +19.1% | -2.2% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -128% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | +13.2% | +2.3% | -1.3% | +7.6% | -4.2% | +13.0% | -7.5% | 44% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | -5.5% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +5.2% | +14.9% | +19.8% | -0.5% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +225% | |
| 2021-02-03 Wednesday | +14.2% | -0.3% | -6.0% | +1.8% | +1.3% | +4.9% | -9.2% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +63% | |
| 2020-11-02 Monday | +4.8% | +6.6% | -1.2% | +5.4% | +14.7% | +18.0% | -5.8% | 49% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +134% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | +16.3% | -0.9% | -5.5% | +0.9% | -5.0% | +2.8% | -14.0% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +300% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | 2 | +17.2% | -0.8% | +13.4% | -11.8% | -1.0% | +17.2% | -2.9% | 78% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +44% |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | +0.4% | +3.7% | -3.2% | -5.1% | -15.1% | +9.3% | -22.1% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | 1 | -15.2% | +1.4% | -8.0% | +3.5% | +5.6% | +2.0% | -11.3% | 80% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- |
| 2019-07-17 Wednesday | -5.2% | +0.9% | -23.3% | -7.6% | -9.6% | +3.7% | -33.1% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +84% | |
| 2019-04-17 Wednesday | +0.9% | +3.1% | +14.0% | +4.0% | -1.0% | +22.4% | +3.1% | 26% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +272% | |
| 2019-01-23 Wednesday | +16.6% | +0.1% | +10.5% | +8.3% | +7.9% | +22.8% | -3.4% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -253% | |
| 2018-10-16 Tuesday | -2.6% | -4.9% | -17.2% | -7.1% | -8.1% | -2.1% | -28.0% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +400% | |
| 2018-07-17 Tuesday | +3.2% | +5.0% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +1.5% | +7.5% | -2.5% | 29% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +60% | |
| 2018-04-17 Tuesday | 0.0% | -7.8% | -6.8% | -1.7% | -2.1% | -2.5% | -10.9% | 19% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -101% | |
| 2018-01-16 Tuesday | 1 | -9.7% | -2.6% | -3.3% | -10.9% | -12.5% | +0.5% | -19.3% | 54% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1900% |
| 2017-10-17 Tuesday | +6.7% | +5.0% | -6.5% | -3.4% | -7.0% | +5.0% | -14.1% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2017-07-18 Tuesday | +0.5% | +4.9% | +7.3% | +8.2% | -1.0% | +17.3% | +4.6% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +28% | |
| 2017-04-18 Tuesday | -8.8% | +5.6% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +8.9% | -2.0% | 21% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2017-01-17 Tuesday | -0.9% | +2.0% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -4.7% | +2.9% | -5.8% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +53% | |
| 2016-10-18 Tuesday | +1.5% | +0.8% | +7.3% | -5.5% | +0.8% | +9.1% | -5.7% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2016-07-12 Tuesday | +6.6% | +5.4% | -3.0% | -6.3% | -5.9% | +8.6% | -10.3% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-04-12 Tuesday | +0.3% | +0.5% | +4.0% | -4.9% | -4.5% | +7.9% | -3.4% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +31% | |
| 2016-01-19 Tuesday | +0.4% | +2.6% | +1.8% | +4.8% | +3.5% | +10.2% | -7.5% | 24% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +134% | |
| 2015-10-13 Tuesday | +1.9% | +0.1% | -6.1% | +2.1% | +7.9% | +4.0% | -9.9% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2015-07-14 Tuesday | +3.0% | +2.1% | -6.7% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +2.3% | -8.2% | 18% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -7% | |
| 2015-04-21 Tuesday | -2.0% | -9.6% | -10.4% | -2.9% | +2.7% | -3.4% | -15.4% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -18% | |
| 2015-01-20 Tuesday | +5.5% | +3.0% | 0.0% | -3.2% | +0.1% | +4.7% | -7.1% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +79% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ADTN.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.