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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: BHE has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed BHE earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.11 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +2.8% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.2% | 24 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.7% | 25 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.8%
Median reaction
-0.1%
Avg |move|
5.7%
Up rate
48%
Avg drift T-20
+2.7%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.7% | +0.5% | 9.9 | -11.8% / +29.1% | 52% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.7% | +0.2% | 6.1 | -13.8% / +17.9% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.6% | +0.4% | 5.6 | -11.8% / +23.5% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.8% | -0.1% | 7.8 | -17.5% / +18.1% | 48% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.2% | +0.4% | 5.2 | -15.8% / +18.7% | 54% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.8% | +2.1% | 7.2 | -11.4% / +24.7% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +7.9% | +6.9% | 9.2 | -7.0% / +47.2% | 83% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.8% | -3.6% | 7.3 | -23.8% / +14.8% | 15% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 1 | +0.7% | +0.7% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Thursday | 11 | -0.4% | +0.2% | 4.1 | 55% |
| Wednesday | 25 | -0.7% | -1.9% | 8.1 | 48% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 9 | -1.8% | -1.5% | 10.2 | 33% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +2.8% | +0.2% | 8.0 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | +1.9% | +0.2% | 7.8 | 57% |
| Strong Up | 16 | -0.4% | +0.5% | 7.0 | 56% |
| Sideways n<10 | 6 | -2.8% | -2.2% | 6.9 | 33% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -3.5% | -0.5% | 7.7 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 24 | -0.2% | -1.1% | 8.6 | 42% |
| Low (<15) | 16 | -1.2% | +0.5% | 6.8 | 56% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -2.1% | -0.7% | 6.5 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +5.7% | +3.7% | 9.7 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | +3.0% | -0.5% | 9.9 | 43% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +2.5% | +1.1% | 10.1 | 58% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -0.9% | -2.3% | 8.4 | 40% |
| Sideways n<10 | 6 | -2.0% | -4.5% | 8.5 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 11.5% | +13.3% | +7.5% | 1.16x |
| 2026-02-03 | 17.6% | -0.1% | +2.3% | 0.00x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +29.1% | +7.5% | +13.3% | +5.5% | +3.0% | +23.5% | -1.9% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | +26.6% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +4.1% | +2.4% | +9.1% | -2.5% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2025-11-04 Tuesday | +15.1% | +5.6% | +8.6% | -3.5% | -0.4% | +10.1% | -3.0% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +1.3% | -4.5% | -1.9% | +0.4% | +6.9% | +5.7% | -12.3% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-04-29 Tuesday | 2 | +0.6% | -5.6% | -15.0% | +5.8% | +12.1% | -0.9% | -16.1% | 65% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | -4.9% | +5.4% | -2.6% | -0.7% | -6.8% | +6.6% | -9.7% | 35% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | +5.1% | -2.0% | -4.7% | +18.7% | +11.0% | +15.7% | -6.6% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | +3.9% | +8.9% | +17.6% | -15.8% | -11.4% | +19.4% | -7.2% | 34% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | +0.3% | +23.5% | +18.1% | +12.0% | +24.7% | +47.2% | +14.8% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | -0.6% | +2.1% | +9.1% | -3.1% | +3.8% | +14.7% | +1.9% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | -3.6% | +0.5% | +4.4% | +1.6% | +5.1% | +13.0% | +0.1% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +2.6% | +0.9% | +0.7% | -0.6% | -4.6% | +4.3% | -5.8% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -5.5% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -1.1% | +9.3% | +12.1% | -5.7% | 15% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -- | |
| 2023-02-01 Wednesday | +6.7% | -9.3% | -13.6% | +0.4% | -3.5% | -5.8% | -20.1% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +15.0% | -4.8% | -7.0% | +4.7% | +4.5% | +2.7% | -8.6% | 30% | Sideways / High (>25) | +15% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +22.8% | +3.5% | +2.5% | -0.5% | +1.7% | +10.5% | -0.8% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | -6.9% | +1.8% | -1.5% | +3.2% | +4.0% | +9.6% | -1.9% | 24% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +28% | |
| 2022-02-03 Thursday | -11.6% | +4.9% | +3.4% | -2.5% | +1.7% | +8.1% | -2.0% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | -7.4% | -5.1% | -7.7% | +8.4% | +11.9% | +6.3% | -11.4% | 21% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | -11.8% | +11.6% | +5.5% | -2.5% | -2.4% | +11.6% | -1.6% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | -0.7% | +2.7% | +0.3% | -0.9% | +1.1% | +7.1% | -4.9% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-02-04 Thursday | -4.9% | +5.0% | -0.3% | +1.3% | +8.3% | +11.4% | -1.5% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | -1.6% | +4.6% | +4.0% | +1.8% | +23.4% | +28.9% | +2.0% | 31% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +14% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | -3.8% | -3.7% | -2.4% | +3.5% | -1.7% | +5.2% | -9.4% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -22% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | 1 | +19.7% | +0.4% | -13.7% | -6.1% | +7.4% | +0.7% | -23.8% | 73% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +35% |
| 2020-02-06 Thursday | -11.8% | -1.4% | -12.5% | +7.3% | +1.6% | -0.2% | -14.6% | 41% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2019-10-24 Thursday | +5.4% | +0.5% | +2.7% | +7.6% | +3.4% | +13.1% | +0.3% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2019-07-24 Wednesday | +7.5% | +1.3% | +3.5% | +1.4% | +1.4% | +7.6% | -1.6% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2019-04-24 Wednesday | +16.3% | -11.8% | -10.0% | -0.1% | -11.3% | -7.0% | -21.1% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2019-02-07 Thursday | +18.9% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +1.2% | -4.9% | +7.8% | -3.9% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2018-10-30 Tuesday | -2.3% | -1.0% | -5.7% | +11.0% | +9.0% | +6.7% | -6.0% | 32% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2018-07-24 Tuesday | +0.7% | -3.4% | -17.5% | -0.2% | +8.9% | -0.7% | -18.4% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | +3.4% | -6.9% | -9.5% | -4.2% | -0.9% | -5.1% | -15.7% | 19% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2018-02-07 Wednesday | -8.4% | +3.4% | +5.2% | -0.2% | +7.3% | +14.2% | +2.7% | 25% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +34% | |
| 2017-10-18 Wednesday | +6.8% | -6.6% | -12.9% | -1.0% | -4.5% | -5.5% | -18.1% | 14% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2017-07-19 Wednesday | +6.9% | -0.7% | -5.0% | +1.2% | -3.3% | -0.3% | -10.3% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2017-04-19 Wednesday | -0.5% | -0.6% | +3.0% | -0.5% | -3.4% | +5.0% | -0.6% | 15% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +33% | |
| 2017-02-08 Wednesday | -0.5% | +1.5% | +6.3% | +0.5% | -5.3% | +8.6% | +0.3% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2016-10-20 Thursday | -0.7% | -1.6% | +1.8% | -0.8% | +8.9% | +11.7% | -2.6% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2016-07-21 Thursday | +4.8% | +0.2% | +1.4% | +1.7% | +4.0% | +7.2% | -1.5% | 33% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -3% | |
| 2016-04-21 Thursday | 1 | -10.8% | -2.2% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -0.2% | +6.3% | -2.5% | 55% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -18% |
| 2016-02-09 Tuesday | +12.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% | +2.3% | +4.0% | +5.7% | -1.7% | 32% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2015-10-22 Thursday | -1.6% | -0.3% | -1.7% | -2.6% | +1.8% | +1.6% | -6.0% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2015-07-23 Thursday | -2.4% | +0.7% | +0.2% | +0.8% | -1.1% | +3.2% | -1.9% | 28% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2015-04-23 Thursday | +1.4% | +0.4% | -0.7% | -3.2% | -1.4% | +0.9% | -4.9% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-02-03 Tuesday | -7.0% | -0.7% | -2.4% | +0.4% | +5.3% | +4.1% | -3.2% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -0% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_BHE.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.