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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: CDNS has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, July 27, 2026
Next confirmed CDNS earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.61 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +5.2% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.2% | 22 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +0.9% | 36 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.1%
Median reaction
+0.1%
Avg |move|
4.5%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
+3.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +3.9% | +3.8% | 9.3 | -11.7% / +41.3% | 74% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.0% | +0.5% | 4.4 | -9.1% / +13.6% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.2% | +1.4% | 4.6 | -7.8% / +11.1% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.1% | +0.1% | 5.7 | -8.8% / +15.4% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.4% | +0.3% | 4.2 | -9.2% / +11.2% | 59% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.0% | +3.7% | 8.1 | -28.1% / +17.4% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.4% | +7.8% | 6.7 | -5.1% / +24.7% | 91% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.4% | -4.6% | 7.3 | -26.3% / +7.6% | 26% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday n<10 | 5 | +2.0% | +2.8% | 6.8 | 60% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 4 | +1.9% | +4.4% | 6.3 | 75% |
| Monday | 36 | +0.9% | -0.6% | 5.5 | 44% |
| Thursday n<10 | 1 | +0.8% | +0.8% | 0.0 | 100% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | +5.2% | +3.2% | 6.5 | 75% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +4.7% | +9.1% | 6.6 | 67% |
| Sideways | 11 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 4.5 | 55% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +0.7% | +0.4% | 6.5 | 50% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 3.2 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 22 | +2.2% | +0.9% | 6.5 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 18 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 4.7 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 4.1 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +9.7% | +9.1% | 10.4 | 94% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +3.3% | +3.7% | 3.6 | 83% |
| Sideways | 11 | +1.4% | +3.8% | 8.2 | 64% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +0.5% | +1.0% | 4.6 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -8.5% | -8.6% | 2.9 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 9.0% | -3.3% | -2.0% | 0.37x |
| 2026-02-17 | 8.3% | +7.6% | +6.9% | 0.92x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 Monday | +23.8% | -2.0% | -3.3% | +7.4% | +17.4% | +13.9% | -6.2% | 50% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2026-02-17 Tuesday | -10.7% | +6.9% | +7.6% | -4.7% | -3.7% | +10.0% | -2.2% | 52% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2025-10-27 Monday | +0.8% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -1.7% | -10.8% | -0.9% | -16.0% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-07-28 Monday | +9.4% | +6.4% | +9.7% | -0.4% | -5.8% | +12.8% | +1.8% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-04-28 Monday | 1 | +11.3% | +1.4% | +5.8% | +2.2% | +6.9% | +13.1% | +1.4% | 68% | Sideways / High (>25) | +5% |
| 2025-02-18 Tuesday | -1.7% | -5.1% | -8.8% | -9.2% | -7.4% | -4.6% | -23.4% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-10-28 Monday | -6.7% | +8.8% | +12.5% | +1.7% | +9.8% | +24.7% | +7.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-07-22 Monday | -9.8% | -0.4% | -1.4% | -8.5% | -0.4% | +1.6% | -15.9% | 36% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2024-04-22 Monday | -11.7% | -2.5% | -1.1% | +0.3% | +3.8% | +3.4% | -5.1% | 22% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-02-12 Monday | +14.2% | -5.4% | -4.0% | -0.8% | +5.8% | +4.6% | -7.1% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2023-10-23 Monday | +3.8% | -2.2% | -1.1% | -1.6% | +13.8% | +14.3% | -4.7% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2023-07-24 Monday | +7.1% | -3.9% | -1.2% | -1.8% | -5.6% | +0.4% | -9.7% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2023-04-24 Monday | +4.2% | -5.8% | -4.3% | +3.3% | +3.8% | +2.9% | -8.9% | 17% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-02-13 Monday | +9.7% | +4.2% | +7.2% | -3.2% | +2.2% | +9.7% | +1.9% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2022-10-24 Monday | -1.3% | -1.2% | -5.5% | +0.1% | +7.0% | +7.6% | -13.4% | 40% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2022-07-25 Monday | +6.4% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +8.4% | +8.3% | +16.3% | +1.4% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2022-04-25 Monday | -4.9% | +4.6% | +0.3% | -0.7% | -2.6% | +6.5% | -12.4% | 34% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2022-02-22 Tuesday | -10.8% | +11.1% | +4.2% | +6.8% | +13.7% | +19.1% | +1.4% | 49% | Sideways / High (>25) | +5% | |
| 2021-10-25 Monday | +5.8% | +2.1% | +3.3% | +0.5% | +6.7% | +13.6% | -1.6% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-07-26 Monday | +7.6% | +0.4% | -1.2% | +2.8% | +10.5% | +9.4% | -2.8% | 14% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2021-04-26 Monday | +8.8% | -6.0% | -8.0% | -2.4% | -4.8% | -5.1% | -18.1% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2021-02-22 Monday | -3.1% | +1.8% | -0.4% | +11.2% | -3.5% | +11.1% | -10.2% | 37% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2020-10-19 Monday | +11.2% | +1.6% | -0.8% | -2.4% | +2.0% | +12.3% | -6.7% | 29% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2020-07-20 Monday | +12.8% | +2.7% | -0.1% | +1.6% | +5.7% | +8.3% | -3.0% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2020-04-20 Monday | 1 | +41.3% | -1.8% | -4.2% | +9.0% | +11.8% | +8.0% | -5.8% | 75% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +11% |
| 2020-02-12 Wednesday | +6.2% | -0.1% | +2.8% | -2.9% | -28.1% | +4.3% | -26.3% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-10-21 Monday | +1.2% | +4.5% | -5.7% | +4.7% | +6.8% | +5.6% | -6.5% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2019-07-22 Monday | +1.8% | -0.9% | +2.2% | +2.8% | -6.3% | +6.1% | -7.8% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2019-04-22 Monday | +4.0% | +6.7% | +3.9% | +2.2% | -3.1% | +9.8% | +0.3% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2019-02-19 Tuesday | +12.9% | +8.3% | +4.6% | +4.2% | +11.2% | +18.1% | +3.0% | 18% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2018-10-22 Monday | -10.9% | +8.1% | +15.4% | -5.7% | -8.7% | +15.8% | +5.0% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2018-07-23 Monday | +2.9% | +1.4% | +0.8% | -3.5% | -0.9% | +4.1% | -3.5% | 14% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2018-04-23 Monday | +1.0% | +9.2% | +9.1% | -0.1% | +4.8% | +15.8% | +5.0% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2018-01-31 Wednesday | +6.7% | -1.0% | -5.9% | -8.7% | -9.5% | +0.9% | -19.2% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +9.5% | -2.0% | +0.8% | +1.6% | +5.8% | +6.8% | -3.2% | 8% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-07-24 Monday | +2.4% | +1.2% | +4.5% | +0.7% | +1.0% | +7.5% | +0.5% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-04-24 Monday | +5.9% | -5.0% | -4.6% | +2.4% | +5.0% | +0.2% | -6.8% | 14% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2017-02-01 Wednesday | +1.9% | +2.6% | +12.0% | +1.1% | +7.5% | +22.1% | +1.2% | 13% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-10-24 Monday | +3.9% | +1.9% | -0.9% | +0.3% | +5.3% | +4.8% | -4.9% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2016-07-25 Monday | +9.9% | -2.4% | -7.2% | -0.5% | +2.8% | -1.4% | -8.8% | 18% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-04-25 Monday | +3.6% | -1.3% | -1.1% | +0.0% | +3.6% | +3.5% | -3.6% | 14% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-02-03 Wednesday | -6.4% | +8.7% | +6.1% | +0.2% | +8.6% | +15.9% | -1.1% | 32% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2015-10-26 Monday | +4.2% | +3.0% | +1.9% | +2.3% | -0.2% | +9.1% | -0.1% | 15% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2015-07-27 Monday | -5.3% | +3.6% | +9.6% | +0.9% | -8.6% | +15.2% | -4.4% | 17% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2015-04-27 Monday | +3.8% | +3.6% | +3.5% | -2.8% | +2.4% | +6.5% | -1.8% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2015-02-04 Wednesday | +1.1% | -7.8% | -4.9% | +2.3% | +5.8% | +3.7% | -8.7% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -1% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_CDNS.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.