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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: FLEX has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed FLEX earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.24 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -7.1% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.4% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +1.3% | 21 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.4%
Median reaction
+1.9%
Avg |move|
6.2%
Up rate
59%
Avg drift T-20
+3.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +3.6% | +3.3% | 10.9 | -16.3% / +41.4% | 67% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.2% | +0.3% | 5.6 | -11.2% / +13.4% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.4% | +1.1% | 8.0 | -30.5% / +24.3% | 65% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.4% | +1.9% | 9.8 | -35.0% / +39.7% | 59% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.2% | +1.2% | 5.3 | -8.3% / +21.2% | 57% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.3% | +3.0% | 8.9 | -19.1% / +23.2% | 67% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.3% | +8.3% | 13.2 | -18.6% / +73.0% | 91% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.8% | -3.9% | 9.1 | -38.2% / +23.4% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 2 | +21.6% | +21.6% | 18.1 | 100% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | +5.3% | +5.3% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 21 | +1.3% | +1.5% | 4.7 | 57% |
| Thursday | 22 | -0.6% | +1.1% | 10.3 | 55% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +4.2% | +2.2% | 10.2 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | +2.4% | +2.8% | 3.0 | 75% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +0.9% | -1.4% | 6.8 | 50% |
| Sideways | 10 | -0.3% | +2.8% | 8.2 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -7.1% | -1.7% | 16.8 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | +1.4% | +1.9% | 12.1 | 65% |
| Low (<15) | 14 | +1.4% | +0.9% | 6.0 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +1.0% | +1.3% | 4.1 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +10.0% | +4.5% | 12.0 | 94% |
| Sideways | 10 | +2.8% | +2.0% | 7.7 | 60% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +2.6% | +3.2% | 3.3 | 75% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | +0.6% | -0.9% | 9.4 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -11.4% | -14.5% | 6.5 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 11.9% | +39.7% | +24.3% | 3.33x |
| 2026-02-04 | 13.3% | +2.2% | +0.3% | 0.17x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | +41.4% | +24.3% | +39.7% | +3.7% | +20.2% | +73.0% | +23.4% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2026-02-04 Wednesday | 1 | -5.2% | +0.3% | +2.2% | +7.8% | +5.6% | +15.1% | -1.9% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +11% |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | +13.9% | -0.5% | -3.2% | +2.0% | -8.7% | +1.2% | -19.7% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2025-07-24 Thursday | +1.3% | 0.0% | +0.6% | -0.2% | -1.2% | +6.6% | -3.7% | 39% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +36.5% | +1.4% | +1.5% | +9.2% | +10.5% | +14.4% | -0.1% | 61% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | 1 | +6.1% | +1.9% | +1.4% | +2.6% | -10.2% | +8.1% | -9.2% | 57% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +22% |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | +9.5% | -0.4% | -3.1% | +12.4% | +12.0% | +18.7% | -3.8% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-07-24 Wednesday | +3.3% | +0.6% | -2.6% | +3.9% | +2.8% | +3.0% | -18.1% | 42% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -9.2% | -1.9% | +4.1% | +4.2% | +23.2% | +29.5% | -2.6% | 38% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | +4.0% | +4.7% | +5.5% | -2.1% | +12.4% | +22.2% | +1.3% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | -7.7% | +9.8% | +11.0% | +0.0% | +2.1% | +17.7% | +6.5% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | +6.8% | +0.8% | -4.5% | -0.1% | -1.9% | +1.4% | -11.3% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2023-05-10 Wednesday | -1.6% | +2.5% | +8.8% | +4.1% | +14.7% | +26.5% | +2.1% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2023-01-25 Wednesday | +13.4% | -0.2% | -1.8% | -0.6% | -2.3% | +2.5% | -6.2% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +7.6% | +5.8% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +8.2% | +13.9% | +1.1% | 36% | Sideways / High (>25) | +22% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | +3.3% | +2.6% | +5.2% | +2.6% | +10.7% | +25.3% | +0.1% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | -0.3% | +0.1% | -2.9% | -7.0% | +0.3% | +2.3% | -13.6% | 39% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2022-01-26 Wednesday | -13.4% | +5.5% | -0.4% | +6.8% | +5.8% | +15.2% | -1.5% | 29% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | +1.5% | -6.9% | -6.2% | +4.0% | +4.8% | +6.7% | -8.5% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | -2.1% | -0.4% | +2.7% | -2.3% | +1.2% | +5.7% | -1.7% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | -3.5% | +2.9% | +3.2% | -8.3% | +2.1% | +7.2% | -5.6% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2021-01-28 Thursday | +5.1% | +0.9% | -4.5% | +7.1% | +3.1% | +8.4% | -6.0% | 49% | Sideways / High (>25) | +33% | |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | 1 | +20.3% | +9.7% | +3.4% | +4.7% | +16.9% | +24.2% | -0.7% | 54% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +33% |
| 2020-07-30 Thursday | +16.1% | +2.3% | -1.4% | +2.4% | -8.2% | +4.2% | -10.9% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% | |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | +5.0% | +7.4% | +7.6% | -7.2% | +17.2% | +27.4% | -6.3% | 65% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2020-01-30 Thursday | +2.5% | +8.2% | +1.6% | +3.1% | -15.5% | +8.2% | -16.9% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2019-10-24 Thursday | -1.1% | +1.1% | +11.7% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +19.1% | -1.6% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-07-25 Thursday | +4.7% | +6.6% | +13.3% | -2.8% | -8.9% | +16.0% | -2.9% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | +6.8% | +4.0% | +3.5% | -4.1% | -19.1% | +13.6% | -17.8% | 28% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-01-30 Wednesday | +21.3% | +14.3% | +4.2% | +1.1% | +9.6% | +17.0% | +0.5% | 36% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -15.6% | -30.5% | -35.0% | +21.2% | +16.4% | -18.6% | -38.2% | 31% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2018-07-26 Thursday | +5.5% | +2.9% | -5.6% | -1.3% | -1.7% | +3.0% | -10.9% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2018-04-26 Thursday | +2.0% | -19.2% | -21.7% | +7.4% | +6.8% | -10.0% | -22.3% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2018-01-25 Thursday | +6.3% | +3.8% | +2.9% | -6.2% | -7.2% | +3.8% | -13.5% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +3.7% | +0.3% | +3.7% | +0.1% | +6.1% | +10.1% | -1.3% | 11% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +2.7% | -2.0% | -4.7% | -2.1% | -2.7% | -0.5% | -9.4% | 14% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -8% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | -3.3% | -3.1% | -3.5% | -2.0% | +10.8% | +7.4% | -8.2% | 12% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2017-01-26 Thursday | +4.5% | -1.9% | +4.6% | -3.4% | +4.6% | +10.5% | -2.2% | 18% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | +3.7% | -3.9% | +4.4% | -5.0% | +0.3% | +8.7% | -3.9% | 18% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2016-07-21 Thursday | +0.5% | -7.0% | -1.1% | -2.8% | -1.9% | -0.3% | -7.8% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | +2.1% | -3.3% | -1.3% | -0.7% | +1.9% | +3.6% | -7.5% | 17% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | -16.3% | +14.2% | +10.0% | -2.8% | +3.2% | +14.9% | +1.7% | 37% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2015-10-19 Monday | +4.1% | +7.1% | +5.3% | -3.6% | -5.4% | +8.0% | -2.4% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2015-07-23 Thursday | -8.4% | +1.2% | -1.3% | +2.3% | -0.2% | +5.5% | -3.3% | 24% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2015-04-29 Wednesday | -3.6% | -4.7% | -5.7% | +2.4% | +5.9% | +3.4% | -7.5% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | -6.6% | +4.9% | +7.4% | +2.4% | +8.2% | +18.1% | +3.4% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +15% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_FLEX.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.