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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: SANM has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, July 27, 2026
Next confirmed SANM earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.50 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +6.0% | 6 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +4.8% | 24 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +2.3% | 41 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+2.4%
Median reaction
+1.4%
Avg |move|
8.8%
Up rate
59%
Avg drift T-20
+2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.2% | +0.6% | 10.3 | -19.5% / +43.7% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.8% | +2.5% | 5.1 | -7.6% / +16.9% | 63% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.7% | +3.0% | 9.2 | -14.0% / +21.1% | 59% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +2.4% | +1.4% | 10.8 | -21.6% / +28.2% | 59% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.1% | +0.5% | 4.5 | -10.6% / +12.1% | 57% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.9% | +3.1% | 7.9 | -17.9% / +20.7% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +10.5% | +8.3% | 11.8 | -9.1% / +39.7% | 78% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.0% | -5.9% | 9.6 | -24.9% / +13.8% | 37% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday n<10 | 1 | +15.4% | +15.4% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Monday | 41 | +2.3% | +2.2% | 11.1 | 59% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | +1.6% | +0.7% | 2.0 | 67% |
| Thursday n<10 | 1 | -5.7% | -5.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | +6.0% | +5.7% | 2.1 | 100% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +5.3% | +8.1% | 13.2 | 56% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +1.7% | -0.8% | 8.9 | 50% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | +1.1% | +0.4% | 7.7 | 67% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -3.5% | -2.1% | 10.3 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 24 | +4.8% | +5.1% | 9.9 | 71% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +0.2% | -0.7% | 3.5 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 18 | -0.2% | -3.1% | 12.2 | 44% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +5.1% | +1.2% | 12.8 | 69% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | +3.2% | +3.6% | 6.3 | 56% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +2.4% | +1.1% | 6.4 | 56% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -0.1% | -0.5% | 8.3 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -5.4% | -4.2% | 10.0 | 50% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 20.7% | +14.6% | +9.0% | 0.70x |
| 2026-01-26 | 18.4% | -21.6% | -14.0% | 1.17x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 Monday | +43.7% | +9.0% | +14.6% | +0.5% | +20.7% | +39.7% | +7.4% | 50% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% | |
| 2026-01-26 Monday | +18.5% | -14.0% | -21.6% | +5.1% | +10.5% | -9.1% | -24.9% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | 2 | +0.2% | +6.9% | +16.6% | +6.6% | -5.8% | +27.1% | +1.6% | 62% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
| 2025-07-28 Monday | +0.3% | +6.8% | +22.8% | -3.4% | -4.4% | +27.9% | +5.7% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-04-28 Monday | 2 | +5.3% | -7.0% | -2.1% | -0.2% | +9.6% | +8.5% | -7.2% | 65% | Sideways / High (>25) | +3% |
| 2025-01-27 Monday | +1.0% | +4.5% | +3.2% | +1.5% | +3.4% | +16.1% | -1.0% | 31% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-11-04 Monday | +8.4% | -5.6% | +2.2% | +12.1% | +7.5% | +18.2% | -6.5% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | +13.2% | -10.1% | -1.9% | -10.6% | -5.7% | +2.5% | -17.9% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | +4.3% | -10.1% | -5.2% | +4.8% | +11.4% | +7.2% | -10.1% | 24% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2024-01-29 Monday | -3.0% | +18.5% | +28.2% | -8.6% | -4.5% | +37.6% | +13.2% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2023-11-06 Monday | -2.1% | -12.9% | -14.3% | +5.4% | +10.0% | -3.8% | -17.8% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -7% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +2.0% | -4.1% | -6.2% | -4.2% | -2.9% | -3.3% | -12.8% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2023-05-11 Thursday | -5.9% | +1.2% | -5.7% | +1.9% | +9.7% | +5.3% | -8.4% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-01-30 Monday | -3.9% | +5.9% | +9.7% | +2.9% | -0.8% | +18.1% | +4.3% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2022-11-07 Monday | +18.9% | +7.1% | +11.0% | +0.5% | -1.9% | +17.5% | +6.0% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | +12.3% | +4.4% | +6.5% | +1.3% | +2.2% | +14.1% | +2.1% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | +0.4% | +3.9% | +5.6% | -6.5% | +1.5% | +8.1% | -7.8% | 26% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +13% | |
| 2022-01-31 Monday | -8.8% | +7.9% | +5.8% | -4.7% | -1.7% | +7.9% | -2.6% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2021-11-08 Monday | +9.0% | -5.8% | -7.6% | +1.8% | -1.4% | -1.9% | -15.4% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -4% | |
| 2021-08-02 Monday | -1.6% | -0.6% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +4.3% | +5.2% | -8.0% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-05-03 Monday | -4.3% | -1.7% | -2.1% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +4.4% | -7.4% | 17% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2021-02-02 Tuesday | +3.6% | +2.0% | +0.7% | +6.4% | +11.9% | +13.9% | -0.8% | 40% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +25% | |
| 2020-11-10 Tuesday | +9.5% | +4.1% | +4.4% | +5.1% | +5.2% | +13.9% | +2.0% | 43% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +42% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +3.2% | +16.0% | +15.4% | -0.1% | -4.9% | +23.1% | +4.0% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +154% | |
| 2020-04-27 Monday | 2 | +10.2% | -5.0% | -3.5% | -0.7% | +0.8% | +3.6% | -14.7% | 78% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -46% |
| 2020-01-27 Monday | -4.4% | +7.0% | +2.2% | -6.4% | -17.9% | +7.0% | -16.2% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2019-10-28 Monday | -1.0% | -9.5% | -3.3% | +2.3% | +4.8% | +4.5% | -9.6% | 28% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2019-07-29 Monday | +8.6% | -1.2% | +0.4% | -9.2% | -13.1% | +1.9% | -13.7% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2019-04-29 Monday | +2.1% | +11.9% | +15.2% | +0.8% | -17.2% | +17.9% | -5.4% | 28% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2019-01-28 Monday | +13.8% | +21.1% | +16.9% | -0.1% | +2.8% | +24.4% | +13.8% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2018-10-29 Monday | -15.2% | +5.2% | +7.4% | +4.2% | +6.9% | +17.1% | +4.9% | 34% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2018-07-30 Monday | -0.8% | +1.6% | +0.2% | +2.6% | +6.4% | +7.8% | -0.2% | 25% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -3% | |
| 2018-04-23 Monday | +6.1% | +17.0% | +14.6% | -7.1% | -5.4% | +23.8% | +6.3% | 25% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-01-29 Monday | 1 | -15.1% | -2.3% | -6.0% | -3.6% | +4.5% | -0.7% | -12.8% | 97% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- |
| 2017-10-30 Monday | +0.5% | -12.2% | -15.6% | +4.0% | +6.5% | -8.1% | -17.3% | 10% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -16% | |
| 2017-07-24 Monday | +6.8% | -12.1% | -11.3% | -4.7% | -6.5% | -7.7% | -18.0% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -0% | |
| 2017-04-24 Monday | +0.6% | +1.6% | -3.0% | -3.1% | -5.0% | +2.1% | -11.9% | 26% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2017-01-30 Monday | +1.1% | +5.2% | +4.6% | +3.1% | +0.1% | +10.7% | +1.5% | 27% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2016-11-01 Tuesday | -1.8% | +5.0% | -0.2% | +3.0% | +17.1% | +20.6% | -4.1% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2016-07-25 Monday | +10.6% | -12.3% | -15.2% | +3.2% | +6.5% | -8.0% | -19.4% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-04-25 Monday | -1.2% | +9.6% | +9.1% | -0.5% | +5.0% | +16.5% | +3.8% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2016-01-25 Monday | -19.5% | +13.2% | +9.8% | -0.9% | +6.8% | +19.8% | +3.8% | 28% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2015-11-02 Monday | -6.3% | +12.0% | +18.2% | -3.7% | -7.1% | +22.3% | +4.4% | 43% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-07-20 Monday | -12.9% | +13.0% | +11.8% | +0.7% | +0.6% | +17.8% | +7.5% | 29% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2015-04-20 Monday | -6.2% | -11.5% | -11.4% | +0.4% | +4.4% | -6.0% | -15.8% | 33% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -5% | |
| 2015-01-26 Monday | -1.1% | -5.8% | -10.2% | -0.5% | +9.3% | -1.0% | -13.4% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_SANM.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.