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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ST has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed ST earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.30 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -1.7% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.0% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday expl. | -1.7% | 4 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.2%
Median reaction
-0.6%
Avg |move|
2.6%
Up rate
41%
Avg drift T-20
+2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.2% | +1.1% | 10.3 | -23.1% / +32.4% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.3% | -0.5% | 5.5 | -11.5% / +18.8% | 46% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.5% | -0.1% | 3.5 | -4.1% / +19.7% | 46% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.2% | -0.6% | 3.7 | -6.1% / +13.8% | 41% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 4.5 | -8.5% / +8.2% | 46% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 8.9 | -27.5% / +28.0% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +6.7% | +4.1% | 6.5 | -0.2% / +28.0% | 96% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -6.9% | -6.1% | 6.1 | -30.8% / +7.0% | 9% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 4 | +3.6% | +1.8% | 6.9 | 50% |
| Monday n<10 | 3 | +0.6% | +0.7% | 5.4 | 67% |
| Tuesday | 35 | +0.0% | -0.7% | 2.8 | 37% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 4 | -1.7% | -1.6% | 2.9 | 50% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways | 10 | +3.8% | +3.3% | 5.1 | 70% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.4% | -0.1% | 1.6 | 40% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -0.8% | -0.6% | 2.7 | 25% |
| Strong Up | 15 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 2.6 | 40% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -1.7% | -1.6% | 1.4 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | +1.0% | +0.1% | 4.7 | 52% |
| Low (<15) | 17 | -0.2% | -0.7% | 2.2 | 35% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -1.6% | -1.6% | 2.0 | 17% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +10.1% | +7.8% | 11.2 | 87% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +1.9% | +1.1% | 5.4 | 58% |
| Sideways | 10 | -0.7% | -0.7% | 5.1 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -4.4% | -3.8% | 6.0 | 40% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -11.5% | -9.6% | 7.1 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 9.9% | -4.7% | +1.6% | 0.47x |
| 2026-02-19 | 11.9% | +6.1% | -0.9% | 0.51x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | +24.4% | +1.6% | -4.7% | +8.2% | +28.0% | +22.6% | -7.6% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2026-02-19 Thursday | +2.4% | -0.9% | +6.1% | -2.1% | -11.4% | +8.1% | -14.1% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | +1.0% | +4.5% | +5.8% | -5.5% | -2.8% | +9.9% | -8.4% | 43% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-07-29 Tuesday | +7.9% | -4.1% | -3.6% | -4.8% | +6.0% | +3.8% | -10.5% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2025-05-08 Thursday | 1 | +7.6% | +9.3% | +13.8% | +7.4% | +6.2% | +28.0% | +7.0% | 47% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
| 2025-02-11 Tuesday | -6.0% | +1.9% | +9.1% | +7.1% | -4.4% | +17.9% | +0.5% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2024-11-04 Monday | -5.9% | -4.0% | -6.1% | +3.2% | +2.1% | +2.0% | -9.2% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | +1.4% | -3.5% | +0.7% | -7.7% | +0.9% | +4.1% | -9.2% | 35% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | -1.9% | +19.7% | +7.1% | +7.3% | +9.3% | +21.0% | +5.6% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2024-02-06 Tuesday | -8.0% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -2.1% | +4.1% | +7.3% | -3.1% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -5% | |
| 2023-10-31 Tuesday | -15.2% | +0.7% | -0.7% | +0.2% | +2.7% | +6.9% | -3.8% | 31% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2023-07-25 Tuesday | -2.5% | -0.7% | -1.7% | +0.4% | -10.3% | +0.6% | -12.3% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2023-04-25 Tuesday | -6.4% | -0.7% | -2.1% | -0.8% | -4.1% | +0.1% | -9.8% | 36% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-01-31 Tuesday | 1 | +25.9% | -0.1% | +3.5% | +1.1% | -3.3% | +6.9% | -2.7% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2022-10-25 Tuesday | +5.2% | -0.7% | -1.0% | +3.8% | +15.8% | +16.6% | -4.5% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -1% | |
| 2022-07-26 Tuesday | -4.6% | -0.1% | +5.1% | +1.2% | -2.9% | +11.7% | -0.5% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | -10.2% | -0.7% | -2.5% | +5.8% | +2.1% | +5.9% | -6.0% | 37% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2022-02-01 Tuesday | -9.0% | +0.5% | +0.1% | -1.2% | +0.8% | +4.0% | -5.6% | 30% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +0.1% | -0.5% | -2.4% | +6.3% | +11.3% | +10.2% | -2.7% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | -5.1% | +0.4% | +3.3% | +4.9% | +5.4% | +12.2% | +0.0% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | +1.4% | +0.7% | +0.9% | -3.8% | -3.1% | +1.8% | -7.4% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2021-02-02 Tuesday | +4.1% | +0.9% | -0.4% | +1.2% | +12.9% | +14.4% | -2.3% | 30% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2020-10-27 Tuesday | +3.9% | -2.0% | -2.3% | +4.7% | +18.3% | +16.1% | -4.1% | 40% | Sideways / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2020-07-28 Tuesday | +7.8% | +0.2% | +1.4% | -2.5% | +3.2% | +7.8% | -6.2% | 39% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +7% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | 1 | +32.4% | -2.0% | -5.0% | -5.8% | +1.1% | -0.1% | -17.7% | 66% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -5% |
| 2020-02-11 Tuesday | -5.0% | +0.6% | +0.8% | -2.4% | -27.5% | +1.9% | -30.8% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +7.6% | -0.3% | +0.9% | +5.1% | +2.2% | +7.8% | -1.2% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2019-07-30 Tuesday | -3.1% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -3.9% | -8.5% | +1.9% | -8.8% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | +5.2% | -0.2% | +1.5% | -3.5% | -13.6% | +3.7% | -14.1% | 18% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2019-02-06 Wednesday | +10.3% | -0.9% | -4.1% | +4.1% | +4.6% | +6.1% | -5.8% | 16% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -4% | |
| 2018-10-30 Tuesday | 1 | -3.9% | +1.6% | -0.7% | +1.6% | -1.0% | +2.2% | -4.5% | 48% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2018-07-24 Tuesday | +5.3% | +0.0% | -0.3% | +3.9% | +6.7% | +7.2% | -1.9% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2018-04-24 Tuesday | +0.7% | -0.7% | -0.1% | -3.4% | +1.3% | +3.5% | -6.3% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-02-01 Thursday | +10.0% | -0.4% | -3.0% | -7.1% | -6.1% | -0.2% | -11.8% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-10-24 Tuesday | +3.8% | +1.3% | -0.9% | -0.1% | +0.2% | +1.8% | -5.1% | 10% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2017-07-25 Tuesday | +12.0% | +0.7% | -1.9% | -0.8% | -5.1% | +1.2% | -7.6% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-04-25 Tuesday | -3.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% | -2.3% | 0.0% | +1.5% | -5.9% | 30% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2017-02-02 Thursday | +6.2% | -1.0% | -2.5% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +1.1% | -5.2% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-10-25 Tuesday | -1.5% | -1.2% | -0.2% | -2.7% | +1.1% | +1.0% | -6.2% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-07-26 Tuesday | +24.4% | +1.2% | -0.8% | -8.5% | -1.6% | +2.0% | -9.6% | 28% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-04-26 Tuesday | +1.3% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -6.5% | -6.0% | +1.4% | -15.9% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-02-02 Tuesday | -23.1% | -0.7% | -3.6% | -6.3% | +5.7% | +3.5% | -13.8% | 54% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2015-10-27 Tuesday | +10.2% | +0.9% | +3.6% | -0.3% | -7.4% | +4.1% | -10.2% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2015-07-28 Tuesday | -7.5% | +0.5% | +1.0% | +4.2% | -8.9% | +8.2% | -10.0% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2015-04-28 Tuesday | -0.7% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -3.7% | -2.1% | +0.2% | -5.3% | 14% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2015-02-03 Tuesday | +0.6% | -0.0% | -1.8% | +4.8% | +10.8% | +9.5% | -2.2% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ST.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.