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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: GRMN has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed GRMN earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.09 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +1.5% | 2 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.4% | 27 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.5% | 46 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.5%
Median reaction
-0.8%
Avg |move|
1.8%
Up rate
41%
Avg drift T-20
+3.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +3.9% | +3.0% | 9.6 | -14.1% / +27.5% | 65% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +3.0% | +2.2% | 8.2 | -11.9% / +26.8% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.9 | -2.0% / +2.1% | 48% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.5% | -0.8% | 2.2 | -5.3% / +4.8% | 41% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.2% | +0.1% | 3.3 | -9.4% / +10.4% | 52% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.8% | +1.0% | 7.3 | -27.6% / +15.5% | 50% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +4.8% | +3.8% | 4.5 | -1.1% / +23.4% | 93% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.7% | -4.3% | 6.2 | -36.2% / +0.1% | 2% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 46 | -0.5% | -0.8% | 2.2 | 41% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | +1.5% | +1.5% | 0.4 | 100% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +1.3% | +1.0% | 1.2 | 75% |
| Strong Up | 18 | -0.5% | -0.8% | 2.1 | 39% |
| Sideways | 10 | -1.0% | -0.9% | 2.0 | 30% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -1.1% | -1.0% | 2.3 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +0.8% | +1.1% | 1.9 | 75% |
| Medium (15-25) | 27 | -0.4% | -0.1% | 2.2 | 44% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | -1.1% | -1.2% | 1.9 | 27% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +7.5% | +7.5% | 3.4 | 100% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +4.9% | +2.0% | 8.9 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 18 | +4.7% | +5.0% | 9.6 | 72% |
| Sideways | 10 | +2.1% | +0.6% | 11.0 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | -7.2% | -7.2% | 2.6 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 7.5% | -0.8% | -1.5% | 0.10x |
| 2026-02-18 | 5.5% | +1.0% | +2.1% | 0.18x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +9.1% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -3.3% | -5.9% | -0.2% | -11.3% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2026-02-18 Wednesday | +18.3% | +2.1% | +1.0% | +5.1% | -3.0% | +7.8% | -2.8% | 43% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | 1 | -13.9% | -0.2% | -2.1% | -4.4% | -9.4% | +2.4% | -15.0% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -- |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +4.9% | -0.9% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +7.7% | +7.0% | -3.2% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 2 | -14.1% | -0.5% | -0.1% | +0.8% | +8.6% | +10.0% | -1.7% | 80% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -4% |
| 2025-02-19 Wednesday | 1 | +11.1% | -1.2% | -5.3% | -0.9% | -8.5% | -0.5% | -15.0% | 44% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +19% |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | 1 | +19.1% | -0.2% | -3.2% | +5.7% | +6.9% | +5.6% | -4.2% | 76% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +38% |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +6.0% | +0.4% | -0.1% | -5.1% | +5.3% | +6.5% | -6.2% | 24% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | 1 | +11.9% | +0.3% | +1.2% | +2.8% | -1.6% | +5.0% | -1.6% | 46% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +40% |
| 2024-02-21 Wednesday | +5.1% | +0.9% | +0.3% | +2.5% | +10.1% | +12.0% | -1.8% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | 1 | +9.1% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +1.4% | +6.8% | +7.9% | -1.3% | 39% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +2.4% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.7% | -0.4% | +0.8% | -6.5% | 16% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | 0.0% | +0.2% | +1.5% | +2.2% | +2.2% | +6.0% | -0.5% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2023-02-22 Wednesday | -0.4% | +1.1% | +3.2% | -4.1% | -4.8% | +3.2% | -4.4% | 28% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +1.2% | +0.5% | +1.2% | -1.6% | +5.5% | +11.4% | -2.8% | 29% | Sideways / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | -4.7% | +0.1% | +4.8% | -0.2% | -4.2% | +7.3% | -0.4% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | -9.8% | -0.2% | +1.0% | +3.2% | -10.2% | +4.5% | -11.6% | 25% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2022-02-16 Wednesday | -8.9% | -1.7% | -5.2% | -2.6% | +3.5% | -1.1% | -10.8% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | -7.5% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -1.3% | -1.3% | +1.8% | -3.8% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | +7.4% | +0.9% | +1.1% | +2.8% | +9.4% | +12.2% | +0.1% | 16% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +5.1% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +2.1% | +5.7% | -1.5% | 18% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2021-02-17 Wednesday | +5.6% | +0.0% | -1.5% | +0.7% | -0.4% | +1.5% | -9.1% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +2.9% | -0.1% | +3.2% | +10.4% | +15.5% | +23.4% | -0.1% | 16% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +58% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +1.3% | -1.2% | +1.2% | +2.4% | +4.7% | +6.8% | -1.7% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +122% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | +10.6% | -0.8% | -2.1% | -3.0% | +12.0% | +10.3% | -8.3% | 49% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +12% | |
| 2020-02-19 Wednesday | +3.1% | -0.2% | -3.7% | -9.4% | -27.6% | +0.3% | -36.2% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +16.2% | -1.1% | -2.7% | -0.6% | +4.7% | +2.5% | -5.2% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +31% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | -1.8% | -0.3% | -2.4% | +0.7% | +4.7% | +3.0% | -5.5% | 18% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | -9.3% | +0.1% | -1.6% | -0.1% | -1.9% | +0.2% | -5.0% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | 1 | +23.2% | -0.9% | -0.8% | +2.1% | +2.8% | +2.9% | -2.4% | 54% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +27% |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -4.7% | +0.8% | +1.9% | -2.5% | -2.1% | +2.7% | -4.8% | 28% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | +6.4% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | +5.5% | +6.5% | -1.7% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +4.4% | +0.1% | -2.6% | -1.6% | -0.4% | +0.1% | -5.2% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2018-02-21 Wednesday | -4.1% | +0.6% | -2.4% | -1.9% | -0.6% | +1.2% | -6.5% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | +9.2% | -0.2% | -1.6% | +1.3% | +5.5% | +5.6% | -2.5% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | +0.3% | -0.2% | -0.8% | +0.9% | -0.2% | +1.1% | -2.6% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | +1.4% | -1.0% | +1.5% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +4.3% | -1.8% | 15% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2017-02-22 Wednesday | +10.3% | +0.7% | -3.4% | +0.1% | -1.1% | +1.4% | -5.5% | 33% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +26% | |
| 2016-10-26 Wednesday | +1.6% | +0.9% | -3.8% | +0.6% | +9.8% | +6.5% | -5.9% | 13% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +38% | |
| 2016-07-27 Wednesday | 1 | +27.5% | +0.4% | +3.4% | +3.6% | -5.5% | +8.5% | -2.9% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +27% |
| 2016-04-27 Wednesday | +10.1% | -0.3% | -1.4% | -4.6% | -4.5% | +1.1% | -10.6% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2016-02-17 Wednesday | 1 | +27.2% | -2.0% | -0.7% | -0.4% | -2.2% | +2.9% | -6.2% | 58% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +56% |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | 1 | -2.1% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +3.5% | +7.2% | +9.5% | -0.8% | 55% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -6% |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | -2.8% | -1.9% | -1.2% | -1.8% | -10.6% | +0.1% | -17.2% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2015-04-29 Wednesday | -4.2% | +0.5% | -0.8% | +0.2% | +2.3% | +2.7% | -1.3% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -3% | |
| 2015-02-18 Wednesday | 1 | -3.6% | +1.6% | +0.0% | -2.5% | -3.0% | +1.9% | -5.8% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_GRMN.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.