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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: PAY has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, August 03, 2026
Next confirmed PAY earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.49 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +7.9% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +4.6% | 13 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +10.6% | 11 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
20
Avg reaction
+7.1%
Median reaction
+9.2%
Avg |move|
15.8%
Up rate
70%
Avg drift T-20
+1.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 20 | +1.2% | -1.3% | 16.6 | -23.1% / +41.4% | 50% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 20 | +1.0% | +2.5% | 9.0 | -15.3% / +27.4% | 60% |
| Overnight gap | 20 | +5.8% | +6.2% | 11.3 | -17.4% / +20.8% | 80% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 20 | +7.1% | +9.2% | 17.1 | -28.4% / +32.0% | 70% |
| Follow-through +5d | 20 | -1.5% | -0.2% | 6.7 | -18.1% / +8.9% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 20 | -2.2% | -2.2% | 11.8 | -20.9% / +14.4% | 45% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 20 | +20.8% | +21.3% | 19.6 | -17.4% / +54.2% | 85% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 20 | -7.8% | -4.1% | 17.0 | -42.0% / +19.2% | 40% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 2 | +11.7% | +11.7% | 2.2 | 100% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | +11.5% | +8.9% | 11.8 | 67% |
| Monday | 11 | +10.6% | +12.0% | 13.6 | 82% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 4 | -8.1% | -18.0% | 23.6 | 25% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 10 | +10.2% | +10.8% | 17.3 | 80% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +7.9% | +13.9% | 16.6 | 67% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +2.3% | -0.4% | 20.9 | 50% |
| Sideways n<10 | 3 | +2.2% | +1.1% | 3.5 | 67% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 3 | +13.9% | +24.6% | 20.5 | 67% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 4 | +10.2% | +13.6% | 15.4 | 75% |
| Medium (15-25) | 13 | +4.6% | +8.9% | 16.1 | 69% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 10 | +7.7% | +7.5% | 18.0 | 60% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +5.0% | +6.0% | 8.6 | 75% |
| Sideways n<10 | 3 | -11.4% | -13.6% | 6.0 | 0% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -13.1% | -16.9% | 10.1 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 13.6% | -7.8% | +13.7% | 0.58x |
| 2026-02-23 | 19.9% | +1.1% | -9.8% | 0.06x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 Monday | +12.9% | +13.7% | -7.8% | +1.1% | -15.3% | +13.7% | -23.8% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2026-02-23 Monday | -17.5% | -9.8% | +1.1% | +0.3% | +1.4% | +9.4% | -9.8% | 58% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | -13.3% | +17.7% | +26.2% | +4.7% | -3.9% | +33.7% | +11.8% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2025-08-04 Monday | -5.1% | +5.7% | +12.0% | +4.0% | +14.4% | +34.3% | +1.3% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2025-05-05 Monday | 1 | +41.4% | +1.1% | +2.8% | +8.9% | +10.4% | +18.5% | -2.0% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2025-03-10 Monday | 1 | -23.1% | +1.9% | +24.6% | -7.8% | -20.9% | +28.3% | -8.2% | 59% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +9% |
| 2024-11-12 Tuesday | +13.1% | +20.7% | +27.0% | +5.8% | -0.5% | +46.3% | +7.2% | 56% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +64% | |
| 2024-08-08 Thursday | +0.7% | +14.4% | +13.9% | +4.3% | -9.4% | +21.8% | +3.0% | 45% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +40% | |
| 2024-05-06 Monday | +4.4% | -5.9% | -13.5% | -3.5% | -4.8% | -4.4% | -19.2% | 40% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +21% | |
| 2024-03-04 Monday | +2.0% | +19.0% | +20.2% | +6.0% | +11.3% | +54.2% | +10.9% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2023-11-06 Monday | -3.2% | +6.8% | +7.0% | -0.7% | +13.9% | +24.4% | +1.8% | 37% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +66% | |
| 2023-08-07 Monday | +7.5% | +20.8% | +31.2% | -3.1% | +12.5% | +48.4% | +19.2% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +361% | |
| 2023-05-08 Monday | -7.9% | +7.1% | +12.7% | +1.7% | +8.7% | +31.7% | +7.1% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +315% | |
| 2023-02-23 Thursday | -5.5% | +20.4% | +9.6% | +0.6% | -9.5% | +20.8% | -12.3% | 50% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +232% | |
| 2022-11-09 Wednesday | -17.3% | +9.9% | +32.0% | -7.2% | -19.5% | +45.6% | -0.3% | 56% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +1824% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | 1 | +28.8% | -17.4% | -28.4% | -14.0% | -8.2% | -17.4% | -42.0% | 61% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -145% |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | -16.9% | +2.9% | -14.8% | -18.1% | +7.7% | +2.9% | -32.8% | 44% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +239% | |
| 2022-02-16 Wednesday | 1 | +15.9% | -15.0% | -21.2% | -2.6% | -17.6% | -11.4% | -42.0% | 71% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +262% |
| 2021-11-09 Tuesday | +20.4% | +2.0% | +8.9% | -1.7% | +1.7% | +12.9% | -6.3% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2021-08-10 Tuesday | -13.6% | +0.1% | -1.5% | -8.9% | -17.4% | +2.9% | -19.1% | 37% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +54% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_PAY.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.