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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: GDDY has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed GDDY earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.18 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.0% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.8% | 27 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | -0.7% | 18 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
45
Avg reaction
-0.1%
Median reaction
-1.0%
Avg |move|
6.5%
Up rate
40%
Avg drift T-20
+2.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 45 | +2.3% | +3.1% | 6.7 | -12.9% / +20.7% | 67% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 45 | +1.0% | +0.7% | 5.1 | -9.1% / +17.9% | 56% |
| Overnight gap | 45 | +0.6% | +0.0% | 6.5 | -16.7% / +18.8% | 51% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 45 | -0.1% | -1.0% | 8.0 | -14.3% / +18.2% | 40% |
| Follow-through +5d | 45 | +0.5% | +0.2% | 4.4 | -11.2% / +12.8% | 51% |
| Follow-through +20d | 45 | +1.7% | +1.4% | 9.2 | -29.9% / +19.2% | 53% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 45 | +8.3% | +7.2% | 9.1 | -7.9% / +36.2% | 76% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 45 | -7.3% | -5.3% | 9.1 | -30.0% / +7.7% | 22% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 1 | +2.9% | +2.9% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 18 | +1.5% | +0.6% | 8.6 | 50% |
| Thursday | 18 | -0.7% | -1.5% | 8.1 | 33% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 8 | -2.5% | -1.1% | 5.8 | 25% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +3.5% | +3.1% | 7.3 | 64% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +1.8% | -1.0% | 4.9 | 33% |
| Mild Up | 10 | -0.2% | +1.4% | 9.1 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -2.0% | -4.7% | 6.5 | 33% |
| Sideways | 15 | -3.2% | -3.8% | 7.1 | 13% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 14 | +2.3% | +1.2% | 6.9 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 27 | -0.8% | -1.3% | 8.6 | 37% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | -3.1% | -4.8% | 4.4 | 25% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +4.1% | +4.9% | 7.8 | 71% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +3.6% | +5.8% | 7.8 | 80% |
| Sideways | 15 | +1.3% | +2.3% | 4.4 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +0.5% | +3.8% | 5.2 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -3.3% | -4.2% | 1.2 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 10.5% | -0.0% | +8.3% | 0.00x |
| 2026-02-24 | 8.0% | -14.3% | -16.7% | 1.78x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | +7.5% | +8.3% | -0.0% | +3.5% | -1.1% | +8.7% | -6.6% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2026-02-24 Tuesday | -12.9% | -16.7% | -14.3% | +12.8% | +1.5% | +2.2% | -20.9% | 44% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | -5.4% | +2.3% | +5.0% | -0.1% | -4.0% | +8.8% | -3.8% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-08-07 Thursday | -12.0% | -6.5% | -11.2% | +7.7% | +8.9% | -1.2% | -11.8% | 20% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | +6.6% | -10.2% | -8.4% | +3.8% | +3.3% | -1.0% | -11.1% | 49% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2025-02-13 Thursday | +6.7% | -8.4% | -14.3% | -4.6% | -3.3% | -7.9% | -20.6% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | +4.3% | +1.7% | +3.2% | +5.4% | +18.6% | +25.4% | -0.1% | 14% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | -1.6% | +3.9% | +7.0% | +3.7% | +9.1% | +17.3% | +2.3% | 21% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | +0.3% | +1.5% | -0.6% | +6.7% | +12.9% | +13.6% | -1.8% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +187% | |
| 2024-02-13 Tuesday | +7.8% | -0.7% | -1.3% | -1.7% | +5.5% | +4.7% | -4.5% | 17% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +651% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | +2.3% | +3.6% | +13.8% | +1.4% | +19.2% | +36.2% | +3.6% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +0.4% | -1.1% | -8.0% | +2.5% | +4.1% | -1.1% | -8.6% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -4% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | -5.8% | -6.7% | -3.6% | +1.1% | +8.7% | +5.4% | -6.7% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -37% | |
| 2023-02-14 Tuesday | +6.9% | +1.0% | -0.6% | -4.5% | -10.3% | +2.2% | -12.3% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -5% | |
| 2022-11-03 Thursday | -6.0% | -3.2% | -7.0% | +6.3% | +16.6% | +10.8% | -11.0% | 36% | Sideways / High (>25) | +5% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +4.8% | +2.4% | +2.5% | +4.8% | -2.2% | +10.6% | -0.2% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | -4.2% | -1.3% | -4.7% | -11.2% | -5.3% | -0.5% | -19.1% | 41% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -4% | |
| 2022-02-10 Thursday | -6.8% | +8.1% | +8.6% | +3.0% | -3.0% | +16.3% | +2.5% | 36% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | -3.4% | +18.8% | +11.3% | -4.9% | -7.3% | +18.9% | -2.2% | 18% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +57% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | -6.2% | -10.2% | -12.4% | -3.5% | +1.2% | -7.6% | -17.7% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -8% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | -0.9% | -2.6% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -2.4% | +1.2% | -4.6% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -82% | |
| 2021-02-11 Thursday | +13.5% | -1.5% | -7.7% | -1.3% | -15.6% | -1.0% | -23.0% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | +5.8% | +1.5% | -5.0% | -1.5% | +7.8% | +3.0% | -13.9% | 39% | Sideways / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | +5.0% | +12.3% | +6.1% | -0.0% | +7.9% | +19.5% | +0.8% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -2623% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | +20.7% | +4.1% | +4.3% | +5.1% | +8.3% | +17.8% | +2.7% | 39% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +39% | |
| 2020-02-13 Thursday | -1.8% | +6.0% | +10.6% | -1.3% | -29.9% | +11.5% | -30.0% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-11-06 Wednesday | +2.2% | +12.1% | +16.0% | -6.6% | -7.4% | +16.7% | +2.0% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +96% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +3.4% | -2.0% | -5.1% | -6.3% | -9.6% | -1.8% | -16.8% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -144% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +6.7% | -3.1% | -2.3% | -1.3% | -6.3% | -0.5% | -10.5% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -41% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | +14.1% | +6.3% | +4.8% | +0.4% | 0.0% | +6.9% | -0.7% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +77% | |
| 2018-11-06 Tuesday | -4.2% | -2.8% | -8.3% | -4.4% | -0.9% | -2.1% | -21.8% | 56% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -56% | |
| 2018-08-02 Thursday | +5.1% | +0.0% | -0.8% | +0.9% | +5.7% | +7.0% | -5.2% | 26% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +24% | |
| 2018-05-08 Tuesday | +7.8% | +3.6% | +4.6% | +0.2% | +7.5% | +13.3% | +2.4% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +51% | |
| 2018-02-22 Thursday | +3.1% | +5.5% | +10.9% | -3.5% | -0.6% | +16.3% | +4.7% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -32% | |
| 2017-11-06 Monday | +7.1% | -0.6% | +2.9% | -0.1% | -5.2% | +8.6% | -2.4% | 11% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +180% | |
| 2017-08-08 Tuesday | +0.1% | +1.4% | +3.6% | -5.2% | -0.7% | +6.8% | -3.9% | 15% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +220% | |
| 2017-05-02 Tuesday | +4.7% | +1.4% | -2.3% | +1.9% | +7.0% | +7.2% | -5.3% | 17% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -28% | |
| 2017-02-15 Wednesday | +7.3% | -6.9% | -4.2% | +1.8% | +4.4% | +1.4% | -7.7% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -107% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | +1.4% | -2.4% | -5.5% | -0.6% | +1.4% | +5.7% | -10.2% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2016-08-03 Wednesday | -5.1% | +8.4% | +12.3% | +3.9% | +1.9% | +19.5% | +7.7% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -98% | |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | -0.6% | -2.1% | -3.5% | +4.3% | +12.7% | +9.6% | -8.3% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2016-02-17 Wednesday | +2.7% | -3.8% | -3.8% | +6.5% | +13.6% | +13.5% | -6.7% | 64% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2015-11-04 Wednesday | +6.4% | +8.5% | +18.2% | -1.1% | -2.6% | +21.8% | +6.1% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +54% | |
| 2015-08-05 Wednesday | +13.0% | -4.5% | -11.0% | +0.4% | -6.0% | -2.3% | -28.6% | 26% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -89% | |
| 2015-05-12 Tuesday | +3.8% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -2.1% | +13.8% | +13.0% | -4.8% | 35% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +3% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_GDDY.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.