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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: AMD habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, August 04, 2026
Next confirmed AMD earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 18–18 trading days before the report (median 18).
Projected watch window: Jul 09 → Jul 09 · most likely around Thu Jul 09.
Projected watch window: Jul 09 → Jul 09 · most likely around Thu Jul 09.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Thursday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 7% of the last 15 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-21: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+0.5%), SOX Strong Down, VIX 17.0 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.02 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | -0.6% | 9 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | -0.3% | 25 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.3% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +0.4% | 36 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.0%
Median reaction
-1.5%
Avg |move|
9.2%
Up rate
43%
Avg drift T-20
+4.4%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +4.4% | +4.2% | 16.7 | -29.2% / +60.4% | 63% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.0% | +1.6% | 7.0 | -16.7% / +18.6% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 8.4 | -21.4% / +21.8% | 48% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.0% | -1.5% | 12.5 | -24.2% / +52.3% | 43% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.8% | +0.8% | 8.0 | -15.2% / +16.8% | 59% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +5.9% | +2.5% | 13.8 | -17.6% / +44.8% | 57% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +17.2% | +14.3% | 17.4 | -10.1% / +53.8% | 83% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.3% | -10.0% | 11.0 | -29.1% / +21.4% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 6 | +7.0% | -2.9% | 21.4 | 33% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | +4.2% | +13.7% | 13.9 | 67% |
| Tuesday | 36 | +0.4% | -1.3% | 9.0 | 44% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -24.2% | -24.2% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 10 | +3.5% | -4.7% | 17.7 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 15 | +1.8% | -0.5% | 8.8 | 47% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +0.1% | +1.6% | 11.1 | 50% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -0.6% | -3.0% | 13.1 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -1.8% | -0.9% | 8.6 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 16 | +1.6% | -2.8% | 16.7 | 44% |
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | +1.3% | -0.5% | 9.5 | 48% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 7 | -1.4% | -3.1% | 8.8 | 29% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +20.2% | +16.7% | 14.1 | 100% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +6.8% | +6.0% | 6.4 | 90% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -3.6% | -6.4% | 7.1 | 33% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -4.3% | -2.2% | 11.0 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -18.3% | -19.9% | 8.0 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-06 Thursday | NEGATIVE | Preliminary Q3 2022 revenue ~$5.6B, well below prior guidance of $6.7B +/-$200M, on a weaker PC market and Client-segment inventory correction | 18d | -0.1% | -13.9% | -12.1% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 18–18 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=1) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 9.1% | +18.6% | +15.3% | 2.04x |
| 2026-02-03 | 8.7% | -17.3% | -11.2% | 1.98x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 exp 2026-05-08 · ATM 355 | +18.6% | 121.0% → 117.0% (-4 pts) | +326.0% | -98.2% | +117.1% | -117.1% | +126.7% | -126.7% |
| 2026-02-03 exp 2026-02-06 · ATM 242.5 | -17.3% | 115.0% → 117.0% (+2 pts) | -99.2% | +322.8% | +113.4% | -113.4% | +126.0% | -126.0% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | 1 | +60.4% | +15.3% | +18.6% | +6.4% | +28.8% | +53.8% | +10.7% | 65% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | +9.5% | -11.2% | -17.3% | +6.7% | +0.9% | -9.3% | -22.3% | 50% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2025-11-04 Tuesday | 1 | +18.2% | -2.7% | +2.5% | -7.3% | -15.1% | +5.4% | -22.3% | 69% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% |
| 2025-08-05 Tuesday | +26.5% | -5.3% | -6.4% | +7.2% | -0.6% | +7.1% | -10.2% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2025-05-06 Tuesday | 1 | +17.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% | +12.1% | +18.1% | +24.2% | -1.8% | 95% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2025-02-04 Tuesday | -4.7% | -9.9% | -6.3% | -0.8% | -9.2% | -2.5% | -19.8% | 45% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2024-10-29 Tuesday | +4.1% | -8.0% | -10.6% | -4.7% | -7.3% | -7.9% | -19.6% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | 1 | -12.2% | +8.9% | +4.4% | -9.9% | +4.2% | +17.1% | -12.0% | 58% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2024-04-30 Tuesday | -11.4% | -6.5% | -8.9% | +7.0% | +14.5% | +10.2% | -10.9% | 50% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-01-30 Tuesday | +16.7% | -3.7% | -2.5% | +0.1% | +5.3% | +6.8% | -6.0% | 56% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -0% | |
| 2023-10-31 Tuesday | -1.6% | +0.1% | +9.7% | +5.0% | +14.6% | +27.6% | 0.0% | 39% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2023-08-01 Tuesday | +1.5% | +1.6% | -7.0% | +3.5% | -3.1% | +1.6% | -15.3% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2023-05-02 Tuesday | -6.9% | -7.1% | -9.2% | +16.5% | +44.8% | +45.5% | -9.9% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-01-31 Tuesday | +16.0% | +4.4% | +12.6% | +1.5% | -7.5% | +18.4% | +1.0% | 49% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2022-11-01 Tuesday | NEGATIVE 1 | -12.1% | +5.6% | -1.7% | +8.9% | +32.4% | +32.7% | -2.7% | 66% | Sideways / High (>25) | -5% |
| 2022-08-02 Tuesday | +32.0% | -4.5% | -1.2% | -2.6% | -11.4% | +5.3% | -14.1% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | -17.6% | +7.7% | +9.1% | -10.8% | +1.8% | +14.7% | -8.6% | 54% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +22% | |
| 2022-02-01 Tuesday | -22.3% | +11.2% | +5.1% | +4.5% | -3.6% | +13.9% | -10.7% | 60% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +21.1% | -1.1% | -0.5% | +4.4% | +22.6% | +31.7% | -3.9% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | +4.5% | +2.6% | +7.6% | +14.9% | +9.9% | +34.6% | -1.5% | 31% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | +10.5% | +4.3% | -1.4% | -6.4% | -7.3% | +4.7% | -14.9% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2021-01-26 Tuesday | +3.2% | -3.8% | -6.2% | +0.0% | -2.1% | -0.5% | -16.2% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2020-10-27 Tuesday | -3.5% | -0.2% | -3.1% | +0.2% | +11.3% | +11.0% | -6.5% | 39% | Sideways / High (>25) | +15% | |
| 2020-07-28 Tuesday | 1 | +34.5% | +11.7% | +12.5% | +11.8% | +13.5% | +29.1% | +9.3% | 71% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +9% |
| 2020-04-28 Tuesday | 1 | +16.0% | -1.8% | -3.3% | -2.7% | -1.7% | +2.6% | -11.6% | 68% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -2% |
| 2020-01-28 Tuesday | +9.4% | -5.3% | -6.0% | +4.1% | -0.0% | +17.3% | -8.8% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2019-10-29 Tuesday | +14.8% | -0.3% | +0.3% | +9.1% | +17.7% | +26.5% | -3.0% | 30% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2019-07-30 Tuesday | +8.6% | -5.3% | -10.1% | -5.2% | -0.8% | +5.0% | -18.4% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | +4.8% | +4.8% | -3.0% | -0.6% | +4.8% | +7.4% | -5.8% | 39% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2019-01-29 Tuesday | 1 | +8.0% | +11.6% | +19.9% | +0.9% | +1.7% | +32.6% | +11.0% | 80% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -5% |
| 2018-10-24 Wednesday | 1 | -29.2% | -21.4% | -15.4% | -5.5% | -2.8% | -2.5% | -29.1% | 78% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +5% |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | +3.5% | +6.9% | +14.3% | +0.7% | +13.9% | +30.3% | +4.9% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | -2.9% | +11.9% | +13.7% | -0.6% | +18.7% | +37.1% | +9.3% | 43% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2018-01-30 Tuesday | +25.2% | +2.9% | +6.8% | -15.2% | -11.9% | +7.6% | -17.4% | 46% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +63% | |
| 2017-10-24 Tuesday | +14.5% | -9.1% | -13.5% | -10.9% | -7.5% | -7.9% | -25.3% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +33% | |
| 2017-07-25 Tuesday | +0.2% | +7.2% | +4.6% | -7.1% | -17.6% | +10.9% | -15.9% | 51% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +7900% | |
| 2017-05-01 Monday | -6.4% | -13.9% | -24.2% | -2.7% | +7.8% | -6.2% | -27.7% | 40% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-01-31 Tuesday | -8.6% | +5.1% | +16.3% | +10.2% | +24.1% | +50.0% | +4.2% | 40% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2016-10-20 Thursday | +9.3% | -6.6% | -6.3% | +9.1% | +29.8% | +26.0% | -10.6% | 40% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +855% | |
| 2016-07-21 Thursday | +4.0% | +9.8% | +11.9% | +16.8% | +20.6% | +37.2% | +4.4% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +42% | |
| 2016-04-21 Thursday | -2.2% | +21.8% | +52.3% | -9.5% | -5.5% | +52.3% | +21.4% | 43% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2016-01-19 Tuesday | -23.8% | -7.2% | -7.7% | +15.0% | +5.6% | +12.8% | -10.3% | 83% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2015-10-15 Thursday | +4.2% | +1.5% | -1.5% | +10.3% | +3.1% | +16.8% | -4.1% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -45% | |
| 2015-07-16 Thursday | 1 | -24.3% | 0.0% | -4.3% | -1.7% | 0.0% | +18.2% | -13.9% | 72% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -3% |
| 2015-04-16 Thursday | +4.4% | -11.5% | -10.1% | -9.7% | -9.7% | -10.1% | -21.9% | 37% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -44% | |
| 2015-01-20 Tuesday | -12.2% | -2.7% | +9.4% | +10.2% | +25.7% | +50.5% | -4.5% | 37% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -100% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_AMD.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.