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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: CNXN has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed CNXN earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.06 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.2% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.4% | 30 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +0.6% | 16 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.0%
Median reaction
+0.7%
Avg |move|
6.3%
Up rate
54%
Avg drift T-20
+1.4%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.4% | +0.9% | 7.7 | -13.7% / +22.4% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.9% | +0.5% | 4.7 | -8.8% / +14.3% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.2% | +0.0% | 4.4 | -9.8% / +9.8% | 50% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.0% | +0.7% | 8.5 | -25.1% / +22.4% | 54% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.1% | -1.0% | 5.2 | -15.3% / +18.3% | 41% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.5% | +0.4% | 7.5 | -14.5% / +20.1% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.5% | +8.2% | 7.4 | -5.9% / +26.4% | 89% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -6.7% | -6.8% | 7.5 | -28.3% / +7.3% | 22% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 3 | +3.8% | -1.4% | 8.6 | 33% |
| Thursday | 26 | +1.9% | +0.6% | 7.9 | 54% |
| Wednesday | 16 | +0.6% | +1.3% | 6.9 | 62% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 1 | -25.1% | -25.1% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | +4.3% | +4.9% | 6.3 | 71% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +1.8% | -0.2% | 8.3 | 44% |
| Strong Up | 15 | +1.1% | +0.6% | 6.6 | 60% |
| Mild Up | 11 | -0.9% | +1.2% | 11.0 | 55% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -2.2% | -4.6% | 8.3 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 12 | +3.5% | +1.3% | 5.1 | 75% |
| Medium (15-25) | 30 | +0.4% | -0.5% | 9.7 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | -2.2% | -1.8% | 3.2 | 25% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | +4.6% | +3.8% | 7.4 | 71% |
| Strong Up | 15 | +4.1% | +2.8% | 7.3 | 67% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +1.8% | +3.3% | 5.7 | 73% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -2.6% | -3.6% | 6.8 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -6.9% | -8.5% | 6.3 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 6.6% | +0.6% | +3.6% | 0.09x |
| 2026-02-04 | 11.8% | +9.1% | 0.0% | 0.77x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +8.4% | +3.6% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +6.9% | +9.2% | -3.0% | 20% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2026-02-04 Wednesday | +4.2% | 0.0% | +9.1% | -0.8% | -5.8% | +14.5% | -2.0% | 28% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | -1.5% | -6.2% | -1.5% | -2.2% | -2.5% | +0.8% | -9.5% | 20% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -3.8% | -1.3% | -3.8% | -1.9% | +5.1% | +2.1% | -11.4% | 16% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | -1.7% | +5.6% | +7.0% | +1.8% | -1.1% | +15.0% | +4.9% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +45% | |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | +3.1% | -1.8% | -10.8% | +0.4% | +0.5% | -1.8% | -13.6% | 17% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -13% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | -7.8% | -1.2% | -5.5% | +18.3% | +14.9% | +12.6% | -6.4% | 18% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +11.7% | +3.1% | +4.9% | -8.3% | -3.8% | +6.8% | -6.9% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -5.5% | -4.0% | -4.3% | +7.5% | +11.4% | +12.3% | -7.2% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -21% | |
| 2024-02-14 Wednesday | +3.6% | -0.8% | +6.4% | -1.3% | -7.6% | +7.9% | -2.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | +0.3% | +2.2% | +5.0% | +5.9% | +5.9% | +15.8% | +1.4% | 16% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +10.3% | +0.9% | +4.9% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +9.8% | -2.6% | 15% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | -11.8% | -0.9% | -2.5% | +8.5% | +20.1% | +17.3% | -3.7% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -14% | |
| 2023-02-09 Thursday | +0.2% | -5.2% | -14.0% | +4.8% | +3.6% | -4.3% | -15.7% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2022-11-03 Thursday | +10.5% | -0.3% | -7.1% | +5.7% | +14.6% | +9.6% | -11.0% | 31% | Sideways / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2022-08-04 Thursday | +6.3% | +2.8% | +4.7% | +2.0% | +0.0% | +15.4% | +0.5% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2022-05-05 Thursday | -6.6% | +0.7% | -2.1% | -5.3% | -5.4% | +0.7% | -14.1% | 26% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +37% | |
| 2022-02-07 Monday | +3.8% | +9.6% | +15.9% | -2.8% | +0.3% | +19.1% | +7.3% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +2.8% | +2.6% | +7.2% | -3.0% | -10.7% | +9.9% | -9.6% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2021-08-05 Thursday | +7.0% | +1.5% | -1.6% | +4.8% | +3.4% | +8.7% | -4.0% | 21% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2021-05-06 Thursday | +5.4% | -1.0% | -3.5% | -1.2% | +2.5% | +2.7% | -8.3% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -9% | |
| 2021-02-24 Wednesday | +3.3% | +0.2% | -15.0% | -4.1% | -3.3% | +0.6% | -21.3% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -- | |
| 2020-11-09 Monday | +18.2% | -5.5% | -1.4% | -9.2% | -12.0% | +2.4% | -15.7% | 27% | Mild Down / High (>25) | -2% | |
| 2020-08-10 Monday | 1 | +22.4% | -7.8% | -3.1% | -1.0% | -6.8% | +3.4% | -10.0% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -55% |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | +9.6% | -1.5% | +1.7% | -15.3% | -5.5% | +4.4% | -21.4% | 51% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2020-02-04 Tuesday | 1 | +4.7% | -5.9% | -25.1% | +8.6% | +6.9% | -5.9% | -28.3% | 44% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +12.7% | -2.1% | +10.6% | -1.4% | +2.1% | +17.4% | -2.1% | 17% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +57% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | -5.6% | +6.5% | +22.4% | -5.0% | -11.4% | +23.5% | +4.1% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +0.3% | +0.5% | +1.6% | -4.4% | -14.5% | +3.2% | -14.2% | 21% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2019-02-07 Thursday | +7.5% | +8.1% | +16.5% | +2.7% | -3.1% | +26.4% | +3.6% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2018-11-01 Thursday | 1 | -13.7% | -9.8% | -7.2% | +2.8% | +2.7% | -0.4% | -10.9% | 126% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -12% |
| 2018-08-02 Thursday | +1.4% | +1.7% | +9.8% | -1.1% | +3.8% | +15.6% | +0.4% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2018-05-03 Thursday | +4.5% | +4.7% | +6.6% | +0.4% | +1.0% | +9.2% | +1.0% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2018-02-15 Thursday | -4.2% | -6.9% | +1.2% | -1.0% | +3.0% | +6.6% | -6.9% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | -2.0% | +0.1% | -1.1% | -0.9% | -1.9% | +6.0% | -6.8% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +0.4% | +2.5% | -2.9% | -1.8% | -4.8% | +2.5% | -12.3% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-04-20 Thursday | -0.8% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +3.1% | -4.9% | +6.4% | -5.0% | 32% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-02-01 Wednesday | -0.2% | -1.6% | +0.9% | -4.6% | -3.4% | +2.7% | -5.3% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -6% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | -7.1% | -1.4% | -5.5% | 0.0% | +16.6% | +13.7% | -8.3% | 15% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +9.1% | +7.8% | +0.2% | -2.3% | +1.6% | +7.8% | -4.2% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | -3.6% | -1.4% | -4.4% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -0.7% | -10.7% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -2% | |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | -10.3% | +9.8% | +11.2% | -1.1% | +9.2% | +22.1% | +5.6% | 19% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | +2.2% | +3.6% | +14.0% | -2.9% | -5.1% | +15.6% | +2.3% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2015-07-30 Thursday | -10.4% | -5.1% | -0.2% | -2.6% | -7.5% | +2.5% | -13.6% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -7.8% | +0.9% | +1.6% | +0.2% | +1.0% | +8.6% | -6.8% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2015-01-29 Thursday | -6.4% | 0.0% | +2.6% | +1.3% | +7.9% | +13.3% | -1.7% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_CNXN.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.