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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: UMC has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed UMC earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.06 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +1.2% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.5% | 19 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.3% | 32 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
37
Avg reaction
-0.6%
Median reaction
-0.5%
Avg |move|
2.8%
Up rate
38%
Avg drift T-20
+3.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 37 | +3.3% | +1.0% | 15.6 | -24.0% / +47.3% | 57% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 37 | +0.2% | +0.3% | 6.7 | -10.7% / +24.2% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 37 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 2.6 | -5.9% / +5.2% | 43% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 37 | -0.6% | -0.5% | 3.4 | -7.0% / +7.8% | 38% |
| Follow-through +5d | 37 | +1.1% | +1.2% | 4.6 | -7.3% / +16.6% | 59% |
| Follow-through +20d | 37 | +5.0% | +1.3% | 14.6 | -10.2% / +73.7% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 37 | +10.3% | +6.7% | 15.3 | -3.0% / +85.8% | 81% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 37 | -6.3% | -5.7% | 5.5 | -24.9% / +2.6% | 8% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday n<10 | 1 | +2.0% | +2.0% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 32 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 3.4 | 41% |
| Thursday n<10 | 1 | -2.6% | -2.6% | 0.0 | 0% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 2 | -3.5% | -3.5% | 1.7 | 0% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -5.0% | -5.0% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +1.2% | +0.8% | 3.5 | 60% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +1.2% | +0.5% | 4.3 | 57% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 5 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 3.9 | 40% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -1.0% | -2.0% | 2.1 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 15 | -1.9% | -2.2% | 2.2 | 20% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 8 | -0.2% | -1.0% | 3.5 | 38% |
| Medium (15-25) | 19 | -0.5% | -0.5% | 3.5 | 42% |
| Low (<15) | 10 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 3.0 | 30% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +8.8% | +2.9% | 17.3 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +5.1% | +3.9% | 3.9 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +4.7% | +2.0% | 16.9 | 71% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 5 | -2.6% | -1.9% | 6.4 | 20% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -11.2% | -14.2% | 10.4 | 20% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 12.4% | +2.4% | -2.4% | 0.20x |
| 2026-01-28 | 16.7% | -7.0% | -5.9% | 0.42x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +42.0% | -2.4% | +2.4% | +16.6% | +73.7% | +85.8% | -2.4% | 69% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +56% | |
| 2026-01-28 Wednesday | 2 | +42.8% | -5.9% | -7.0% | -6.0% | -2.6% | -3.0% | -15.2% | 86% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -1% |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | -0.3% | +1.4% | +1.9% | +3.0% | -2.7% | +6.9% | -5.7% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +68% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -6.7% | -2.8% | -3.7% | -1.5% | -1.8% | +2.0% | -6.5% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -11% | |
| 2025-04-23 Wednesday | 1 | +4.5% | -3.9% | -1.6% | +1.9% | +16.5% | +16.1% | -4.4% | 60% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -13% |
| 2025-01-21 Tuesday | -8.4% | +0.2% | -5.1% | +0.5% | +13.1% | +8.1% | -7.0% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -31% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | -15.7% | +0.3% | -2.1% | +2.6% | -2.2% | +4.4% | -4.9% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | 1 | +0.8% | -1.9% | -3.5% | -1.6% | +6.4% | +6.9% | -11.8% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2024-04-24 Wednesday | -3.1% | -1.3% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +11.5% | +12.6% | -2.2% | 21% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -4% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | -6.9% | +0.7% | -0.3% | +2.7% | -0.1% | +6.4% | -3.0% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +15% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | +3.3% | +0.1% | -0.3% | +2.2% | +10.5% | +11.9% | -1.7% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | -10.1% | +2.6% | +2.2% | -2.2% | -6.9% | +5.0% | -6.9% | 29% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +27% | |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | -10.6% | +2.7% | +2.9% | +1.3% | -0.5% | +7.7% | +0.8% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2023-01-13 Friday | +3.9% | +0.8% | +2.0% | +4.3% | +8.9% | +15.6% | -1.1% | 40% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +1.0% | +2.0% | -0.3% | 0.0% | +27.2% | +30.1% | -1.5% | 53% | Sideways / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | -2.7% | -3.6% | -2.5% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +6.2% | -5.4% | 52% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | -19.0% | +4.8% | +7.8% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +11.9% | +0.1% | 37% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +18% | |
| 2022-01-25 Tuesday | -14.2% | +1.9% | -1.8% | -1.6% | -5.4% | +2.6% | -11.0% | 38% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | -4.1% | -1.5% | -2.5% | +0.8% | +7.7% | +9.9% | -6.8% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -74% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | +2.0% | +2.9% | +7.6% | +7.5% | +10.5% | +23.6% | +2.6% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +18.3% | -2.2% | -3.7% | -7.3% | -10.2% | -2.1% | -24.9% | 51% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +50% | |
| 2021-01-27 Wednesday | 1 | +6.8% | +1.6% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +4.7% | +22.2% | -3.6% | 81% | Sideways / High (>25) | +170% |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | +10.1% | -4.6% | -2.6% | +1.9% | +31.5% | +30.0% | -5.7% | 60% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +84% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | 2 | +47.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% | +16.0% | +2.2% | +26.8% | -3.5% | 70% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +86% |
| 2020-04-27 Monday | +20.8% | -4.2% | -5.0% | +1.2% | -0.4% | -1.5% | -7.7% | 38% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -22% | |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | -1.9% | +3.9% | +5.0% | +3.3% | -5.9% | +10.0% | -7.7% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +10.5% | -1.3% | -2.2% | +4.4% | +9.7% | +7.8% | -2.6% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2019-07-24 Wednesday | +6.7% | -2.3% | -3.2% | +2.4% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -9.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2018-10-24 Wednesday | -24.0% | +0.5% | +1.0% | -3.6% | -9.7% | +1.0% | -15.0% | 27% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +15% | |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | +8.0% | -3.7% | -4.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | -2.7% | -9.1% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +145% | |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | +1.6% | 0.0% | +1.1% | +2.3% | +2.6% | +5.4% | 0.0% | 18% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +140% | |
| 2018-01-24 Wednesday | +2.9% | -0.4% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -3.2% | +0.4% | -7.9% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2017-10-25 Wednesday | +0.8% | -0.4% | +0.4% | +1.2% | +4.7% | +6.7% | -0.4% | 17% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +130% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | 1 | +19.4% | -3.3% | -5.8% | -2.6% | +4.8% | -0.0% | -9.1% | 45% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -87% |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | -12.2% | +5.2% | +5.2% | -1.7% | -7.7% | +6.4% | -17.4% | 40% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +56% | |
| 2015-04-29 Wednesday | -0.8% | -1.2% | 0.0% | -3.3% | -5.4% | 0.0% | -10.7% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | +9.2% | -1.2% | -2.0% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +2.8% | -4.0% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +105% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_UMC.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.