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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: WK has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, August 04, 2026
Next confirmed WK earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.13 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +0.1% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.0% | 28 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +0.8% | 16 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+2.1%
Median reaction
+2.3%
Avg |move|
7.1%
Up rate
63%
Avg drift T-20
-0.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | -0.3% | -0.6% | 9.9 | -26.1% / +24.0% | 46% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.1% | +0.9% | 5.7 | -10.3% / +15.1% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.2% | +1.8% | 7.5 | -20.0% / +16.6% | 63% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +2.1% | +2.3% | 8.8 | -14.8% / +32.1% | 63% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.9% | +0.1% | 6.4 | -20.2% / +15.5% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.8% | +2.3% | 12.4 | -37.2% / +26.9% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.4% | +10.5% | 11.2 | -6.5% / +50.4% | 85% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.5% | -7.5% | 10.7 | -54.4% / +11.4% | 15% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 16 | +3.4% | +3.6% | 7.3 | 75% |
| Thursday | 13 | +2.7% | +3.7% | 10.8 | 62% |
| Tuesday | 16 | +0.8% | +1.1% | 8.4 | 56% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -4.8% | -4.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +5.9% | +7.8% | 6.5 | 75% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +2.7% | +4.5% | 5.4 | 83% |
| Strong Up | 14 | +1.6% | +0.3% | 10.9 | 50% |
| Sideways | 13 | +1.3% | +1.1% | 9.7 | 62% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +0.1% | -0.5% | 5.8 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 13 | +3.2% | +2.0% | 6.5 | 85% |
| Medium (15-25) | 28 | +2.0% | +2.6% | 9.3 | 57% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +0.1% | -6.4% | 10.5 | 40% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +2.4% | +1.7% | 8.5 | 64% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +1.6% | +1.4% | 9.2 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | -1.0% | -1.2% | 7.5 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -3.6% | -0.1% | 13.4 | 33% |
| Sideways | 13 | -4.0% | -3.5% | 10.1 | 23% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 12.4% | -7.0% | -5.7% | 0.57x |
| 2026-02-19 | 16.5% | +3.7% | +10.1% | 0.22x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | -5.8% | -5.7% | -7.0% | -9.1% | -3.3% | -2.8% | -21.8% | 49% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2026-02-19 Thursday | -26.1% | +10.1% | +3.7% | +0.4% | +0.2% | +14.6% | -4.8% | 48% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2025-11-05 Wednesday | -7.5% | +15.9% | +5.8% | +7.1% | +6.0% | +18.2% | +2.9% | 25% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | -5.9% | +16.6% | +32.1% | -9.9% | -4.2% | +34.3% | +11.4% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +256% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 2 | -3.5% | -4.6% | -9.4% | +2.0% | -0.2% | -1.8% | -13.8% | 72% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +95% |
| 2025-02-25 Tuesday | -14.5% | +3.0% | +7.0% | -2.0% | -2.9% | +9.0% | -0.2% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2024-11-06 Wednesday | +11.8% | +1.7% | +4.4% | +3.2% | +10.2% | +16.2% | -0.4% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -9% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | -0.1% | -4.1% | -0.5% | +4.3% | +9.6% | +12.2% | -9.8% | 24% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -9% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -0.7% | +9.4% | +2.0% | +1.1% | -5.8% | +13.9% | -6.0% | 32% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2024-02-20 Tuesday | -2.5% | -7.5% | -12.9% | +3.5% | +2.3% | -5.7% | -14.5% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +54% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | -8.3% | -2.9% | -4.8% | +1.8% | +9.7% | +5.5% | -8.8% | 32% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -1713% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +5.3% | +4.2% | +4.6% | -4.7% | +4.1% | +9.3% | -7.2% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +126% | |
| 2023-05-02 Tuesday | -9.8% | -4.4% | -3.9% | +1.6% | +10.7% | +7.1% | -6.4% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +45% | |
| 2023-02-21 Tuesday | -7.6% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +1.8% | +12.0% | +15.1% | -2.9% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +184% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | -14.9% | -3.9% | +2.2% | -3.4% | +21.7% | +24.6% | -7.7% | 58% | Sideways / High (>25) | +42% | |
| 2022-08-09 Tuesday | +7.7% | +15.6% | +10.6% | -3.7% | -10.9% | +15.6% | -8.0% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | -21.5% | -13.2% | -6.7% | -20.2% | -16.3% | -5.8% | -31.9% | 36% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +67% | |
| 2022-02-22 Tuesday | -10.0% | -14.6% | -8.6% | +15.5% | +19.7% | +10.2% | -14.6% | 47% | Sideways / High (>25) | +153% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +6.7% | +9.2% | +7.9% | -4.0% | -15.7% | +18.3% | -13.7% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +235% | |
| 2021-08-03 Tuesday | +7.1% | +7.0% | +7.8% | -4.1% | +1.1% | +12.3% | -0.2% | 32% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1126% | |
| 2021-05-04 Tuesday | -5.5% | +4.0% | +2.5% | +0.5% | +4.7% | +11.0% | -5.3% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +66% | |
| 2021-02-17 Wednesday | +7.5% | +2.6% | +2.8% | -4.6% | -12.9% | +6.1% | -14.6% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3047% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -2.9% | +9.7% | +19.8% | +0.3% | +9.3% | +33.7% | +9.7% | 29% | Sideways / High (>25) | +133% | |
| 2020-08-04 Tuesday | +6.1% | +2.7% | -0.6% | -9.3% | +5.0% | +4.7% | -11.9% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +59% | |
| 2020-04-30 Thursday | +24.0% | -1.2% | -6.4% | +13.6% | +24.1% | +16.5% | -9.7% | 49% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +120% | |
| 2020-02-20 Thursday | +9.1% | +1.5% | -2.5% | -8.2% | -37.2% | +1.5% | -54.4% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +44% | |
| 2019-11-06 Wednesday | -9.2% | +3.6% | -5.8% | +5.3% | +10.0% | +8.5% | -6.9% | 38% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +28% | |
| 2019-08-06 Tuesday | -8.8% | +8.0% | +12.8% | -8.4% | -24.6% | +16.1% | -15.3% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | +2.0% | -0.3% | +0.7% | -0.6% | +6.7% | +8.0% | -4.4% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +123% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | +16.1% | +2.5% | +8.1% | +3.8% | +2.4% | +16.1% | +1.7% | 26% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2018-11-07 Wednesday | +10.8% | 0.0% | +7.5% | -10.6% | -14.2% | +9.9% | -12.3% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +57% | |
| 2018-08-07 Tuesday | +4.5% | +6.5% | +16.7% | +4.5% | +26.9% | +50.4% | +3.9% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +50% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | -4.8% | +5.2% | +11.5% | +6.4% | +1.2% | +19.7% | -1.3% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +54% | |
| 2018-02-22 Thursday | +18.7% | -20.0% | -14.8% | +2.7% | +7.4% | -6.5% | -21.3% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2017-11-07 Tuesday | +0.7% | +1.6% | +1.1% | -2.6% | -8.8% | +4.9% | -8.8% | 13% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +21% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | +1.1% | +0.5% | +4.7% | -5.0% | +1.0% | +5.8% | -3.9% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +31% | |
| 2017-05-04 Thursday | +8.9% | +0.3% | +5.3% | -3.6% | +4.5% | +10.8% | +0.3% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +73% | |
| 2017-02-23 Thursday | +5.9% | -1.5% | +7.8% | 0.0% | +4.1% | +20.0% | -1.5% | 30% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +56% | |
| 2016-11-09 Wednesday | -3.7% | -11.5% | -10.6% | +1.7% | -7.1% | -2.1% | -17.0% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +33% | |
| 2016-08-03 Wednesday | +2.4% | +5.7% | +8.8% | +8.0% | +19.6% | +30.7% | +1.0% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +41% | |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | -0.5% | +4.4% | -3.6% | +4.5% | +20.3% | +16.8% | -6.2% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2016-03-01 Tuesday | 1 | -7.7% | -7.0% | -10.2% | -4.4% | -4.5% | -5.9% | -19.1% | 75% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +24% |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | -2.5% | +1.1% | +7.9% | -4.2% | +0.3% | +12.7% | -0.7% | 44% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2015-08-05 Wednesday | +8.9% | +2.2% | +1.4% | -6.7% | -6.7% | +8.2% | -13.2% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2015-05-05 Tuesday | -4.4% | -1.7% | +1.1% | -5.3% | -3.2% | +4.0% | -11.5% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2015-03-11 Wednesday | +9.2% | +2.0% | -6.1% | +0.2% | +5.7% | +4.5% | -10.2% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_WK.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.