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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ANET has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, August 04, 2026
Next confirmed ANET earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-21: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+0.5%), SOX Strong Down, VIX 17.0 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.04 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | +0.4% | 7 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | +1.1% | 23 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.8% | 27 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | -1.1% | 10 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.4%
Median reaction
+1.1%
Avg |move|
8.8%
Up rate
57%
Avg drift T-20
+4.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +4.5% | +4.5% | 10.6 | -15.2% / +33.1% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.9% | +2.2% | 6.1 | -10.2% / +16.4% | 61% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.4% | -0.7% | 9.5 | -29.0% / +19.8% | 48% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.4% | +1.1% | 10.7 | -24.2% / +20.4% | 57% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.0% | +0.2% | 5.3 | -10.6% / +12.5% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.2% | +5.2% | 10.6 | -20.9% / +29.2% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.0% | +11.6% | 11.9 | -18.6% / +35.6% | 80% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.5% | -5.9% | 12.3 | -33.8% / +18.2% | 26% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 12 | +5.0% | +4.8% | 10.4 | 67% |
| Thursday | 24 | +0.6% | +1.1% | 10.7 | 58% |
| Tuesday | 10 | -1.1% | -5.2% | 9.8 | 40% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +6.2% | +5.8% | 7.8 | 80% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +4.9% | +7.0% | 6.2 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +1.3% | -0.4% | 12.8 | 44% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +0.4% | +1.5% | 9.7 | 57% |
| Mild Up | 15 | -0.3% | +3.1% | 9.4 | 60% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +3.5% | +5.7% | 7.6 | 60% |
| Low (<15) | 14 | +1.8% | +1.4% | 12.2 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 27 | +0.8% | +0.8% | 10.3 | 59% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +12.3% | +11.4% | 11.5 | 75% |
| Mild Up | 15 | +2.4% | +4.3% | 6.5 | 67% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +0.8% | -0.8% | 6.3 | 43% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.2% | +3.2% | 5.1 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -11.5% | -12.7% | 3.7 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 9.9% | -13.6% | -10.1% | 1.37x |
| 2026-02-12 | 10.9% | +4.8% | +7.9% | 0.44x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 exp 2026-05-08 · ATM 170 | -13.6% | 128.0% → 101.0% (-27 pts) | -98.6% | +196.6% | +50.4% | -50.4% | +57.0% | -57.0% |
| 2026-02-12 exp 2026-02-20 · ATM 135 | +4.8% | 100.0% → 53.0% (-47 pts) | -5.9% | -77.0% | -39.5% | +39.5% | -42.2% | +42.2% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | +27.4% | -10.1% | -13.6% | -3.1% | +18.6% | +4.3% | -20.6% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2026-02-12 Thursday | +8.0% | +7.9% | +4.8% | -6.2% | -5.7% | +10.1% | -9.4% | 59% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-11-04 Tuesday | +5.7% | -7.1% | -8.6% | -3.9% | -9.0% | -3.6% | -25.4% | 49% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-08-05 Tuesday | +14.2% | +13.3% | +17.5% | +1.8% | -1.0% | +20.2% | +8.0% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2025-05-06 Tuesday | +33.1% | -5.4% | -4.8% | +12.5% | +9.8% | +9.6% | -8.8% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2025-02-18 Tuesday | 1 | -7.4% | -5.9% | -6.4% | -10.6% | -19.2% | -4.7% | -31.6% | 104% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% |
| 2024-11-07 Thursday | +5.2% | -5.7% | -7.1% | -3.6% | +8.1% | +2.8% | -14.5% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | -12.7% | +8.5% | +11.3% | -6.6% | -0.3% | +16.9% | -6.2% | 39% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2024-05-07 Tuesday | -7.0% | +3.3% | +6.5% | +7.5% | +2.0% | +20.1% | +0.8% | 48% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2024-02-12 Monday | +11.4% | -8.2% | -5.5% | -2.2% | +6.2% | +3.7% | -9.9% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | -6.4% | +10.6% | +14.0% | +6.2% | +8.4% | +26.0% | +6.8% | 44% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | -4.3% | +14.4% | +19.7% | -3.4% | -2.0% | +25.0% | +9.8% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2023-05-01 Monday | -4.6% | -9.3% | -15.7% | +2.3% | +29.2% | +11.4% | -17.8% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-02-13 Monday | +18.3% | -1.1% | +4.0% | -4.9% | +8.3% | +12.7% | -4.3% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2022-10-31 Monday | +4.3% | -0.4% | +5.7% | +2.2% | +4.7% | +13.7% | -2.3% | 55% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +19% | |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | +25.9% | +4.5% | -0.4% | +6.5% | +3.8% | +13.0% | -0.7% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -15.2% | -4.5% | -3.6% | -10.1% | -10.3% | +0.2% | -17.8% | 47% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2022-02-14 Monday | -5.3% | +8.2% | +5.8% | -6.2% | -6.8% | +9.0% | -11.9% | 39% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +12% | |
| 2021-11-01 Monday | +18.9% | +19.8% | +20.4% | +7.0% | +0.9% | +31.3% | +18.2% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-08-02 Monday | +3.2% | -3.4% | +0.5% | -1.0% | -1.9% | +1.8% | -5.1% | 19% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-05-04 Tuesday | -0.8% | +3.6% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +5.5% | +11.8% | +1.2% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2021-02-18 Thursday | -1.8% | +5.2% | +0.7% | -9.9% | -8.7% | +5.8% | -15.1% | 17% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2020-11-02 Monday | +4.9% | +12.5% | +15.4% | +4.9% | +9.4% | +29.7% | +10.7% | 33% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2020-08-04 Tuesday | +25.2% | -6.1% | -10.9% | -6.4% | -4.7% | -6.0% | -19.7% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2020-05-05 Tuesday | +6.2% | -6.3% | -5.6% | +6.3% | +11.2% | +7.1% | -8.7% | 47% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2020-02-13 Thursday | +11.3% | -8.5% | -6.0% | -0.0% | -20.9% | -3.7% | -33.8% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2019-10-31 Thursday | +9.0% | -29.0% | -24.2% | +4.9% | +5.3% | -18.6% | -29.1% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +1.2% | -6.4% | -10.3% | -3.9% | -6.8% | -6.3% | -21.4% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | -3.4% | -15.8% | -10.4% | -3.9% | -12.2% | -10.4% | -21.9% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2019-02-14 Thursday | +8.8% | +7.9% | +9.6% | +4.2% | +12.4% | +24.4% | +5.8% | 42% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2018-11-01 Thursday | -6.5% | +8.3% | +7.0% | -2.2% | -7.5% | +11.8% | -12.6% | 53% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2018-08-02 Thursday | +5.4% | -0.9% | -5.3% | +4.6% | +15.7% | +15.3% | -5.6% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2018-05-03 Thursday | +1.9% | -8.9% | -8.5% | +6.4% | +6.6% | -1.8% | -12.2% | 47% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2018-02-15 Thursday | +16.1% | -16.2% | -19.0% | -1.4% | +17.7% | -2.2% | -23.4% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2017-11-02 Thursday | -4.8% | +11.4% | +11.2% | +6.0% | +13.5% | +35.6% | +6.4% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +36% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | -0.9% | +16.4% | +19.4% | -4.3% | +2.4% | +24.8% | +11.7% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +41% | |
| 2017-05-04 Thursday | +4.6% | -0.9% | +3.2% | +0.9% | +5.2% | +8.8% | -3.6% | 13% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-02-16 Thursday | +11.7% | +10.8% | +18.9% | +1.3% | +7.6% | +28.7% | +10.1% | 12% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +27% | |
| 2016-11-03 Thursday | -4.0% | -1.4% | +1.5% | +3.1% | +11.8% | +18.0% | -3.7% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2016-08-04 Thursday | +9.1% | -4.5% | -0.3% | +5.2% | +11.0% | +11.8% | -4.5% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2016-05-05 Thursday | -0.8% | +2.9% | +5.1% | -0.4% | +12.3% | +18.5% | -2.5% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2016-02-18 Thursday | -8.2% | +6.6% | +11.8% | +4.1% | -10.0% | +20.4% | -5.4% | 61% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | -7.2% | +5.0% | +13.7% | -6.5% | +5.3% | +22.6% | +4.4% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2015-08-06 Thursday | +4.2% | +1.3% | +3.1% | -3.2% | -12.0% | +7.4% | -22.3% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2015-05-14 Thursday | +4.9% | -3.7% | -5.1% | +3.8% | +24.1% | +18.6% | -7.0% | 26% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +33% | |
| 2015-02-19 Thursday | +5.8% | +6.2% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +6.9% | +9.6% | -2.6% | 46% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +38% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ANET.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.