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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: STX habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed STX earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 14–39 trading days before the report (median 26).
Projected watch window: Jun 03 → Jul 08 · most likely around Mon Jun 22.
Projected watch window: Jun 03 → Jul 08 · most likely around Mon Jun 22.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Wednesday ×1, Monday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 6% of the last 34 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.64 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +3.0% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.3% | 25 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +3.6% | 16 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.6%
Median reaction
+0.7%
Avg |move|
4.7%
Up rate
59%
Avg drift T-20
+2.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.6% | 0.0% | 16.2 | -35.4% / +59.8% | 50% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.4% | +1.0% | 7.3 | -14.5% / +14.1% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.7% | +0.2% | 5.2 | -10.3% / +15.4% | 54% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.6% | +0.7% | 6.4 | -8.8% / +19.1% | 59% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.1% | +1.2% | 5.4 | -9.7% / +19.9% | 63% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +4.9% | +5.3% | 8.8 | -9.5% / +35.3% | 65% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +12.4% | +8.9% | 12.1 | -4.3% / +53.5% | 93% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.1% | -5.4% | 6.7 | -21.7% / +12.6% | 17% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 16 | +3.6% | +0.8% | 8.8 | 62% |
| Wednesday | 10 | +2.3% | +1.3% | 4.7 | 80% |
| Friday n<10 | 9 | +1.0% | +1.7% | 2.9 | 78% |
| Thursday n<10 | 6 | -1.1% | -1.6% | 4.8 | 33% |
| Monday n<10 | 5 | -1.7% | -1.3% | 1.1 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +3.0% | +1.5% | 2.7 | 100% |
| Sideways | 14 | +2.7% | +0.8% | 6.9 | 57% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +2.4% | +3.0% | 1.2 | 100% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +1.7% | -1.5% | 7.4 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 14 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 6.2 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 25 | +2.3% | +0.9% | 7.4 | 60% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | +1.9% | +0.8% | 4.0 | 67% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -1.8% | -2.4% | 5.2 | 33% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +16.5% | +17.3% | 16.6 | 93% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +0.2% | -0.5% | 10.7 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | -1.3% | +0.2% | 4.3 | 67% |
| Sideways | 14 | -3.9% | -4.5% | 13.1 | 21% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -11.5% | -12.8% | 7.1 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-08-31 Wednesday | NEGATIVE | Lowered fiscal Q1 2023 outlook to revenue $2.1B +/-$100M (from $2.5B +/-$150M), EPS 'meaningfully below' prior $1.20+ on macro / customer inventory corrections | 39d | -3.5% | -1.6% | -19.4% |
| 2018-01-08 Monday | POSITIVE | Pre-announced fiscal Q2 2018 revenue ~$2.9B with expanded gross margin, above prior guidance, on strong exabyte/HDD demand | 14d | +7.1% | +0.8% | +19.8% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 14–39 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=2) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 11.8% | +11.1% | +15.4% | 0.94x |
| 2026-01-27 | 11.6% | +19.1% | +6.3% | 1.65x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | +59.8% | +15.4% | +11.1% | +19.9% | +35.3% | +53.5% | +9.2% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2026-01-27 Tuesday | 1 | +29.9% | +6.3% | +19.1% | +0.3% | -4.8% | +23.7% | +4.6% | 73% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | -5.5% | +7.9% | +19.1% | -5.7% | -1.4% | +33.6% | +2.5% | 59% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2025-07-29 Tuesday | +5.8% | -7.7% | -3.5% | +2.9% | +12.1% | +9.3% | -9.4% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-04-29 Tuesday | 2 | -3.9% | +6.8% | +11.6% | +3.1% | +28.9% | +45.4% | +4.7% | 90% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% |
| 2025-01-21 Tuesday | +10.5% | +7.3% | +6.8% | -7.3% | -4.8% | +10.5% | -8.5% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2024-10-22 Tuesday | +5.6% | -6.1% | -8.1% | -2.1% | -5.5% | -4.3% | -14.7% | 19% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2024-07-23 Tuesday | +1.9% | +3.5% | +4.0% | -9.5% | -5.5% | +7.8% | -14.5% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2024-04-23 Tuesday | -1.9% | +1.2% | +0.7% | -1.4% | +7.5% | +14.6% | -3.7% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2024-01-24 Wednesday | +4.7% | +2.3% | +2.0% | -5.8% | -3.3% | +3.2% | -5.8% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +291% | |
| 2023-10-26 Thursday | +0.2% | +1.6% | +3.6% | +5.3% | +11.6% | +17.4% | +1.4% | 28% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | -6.7% | +1.0% | +7.2% | +4.6% | +6.5% | +19.8% | -0.3% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2023-04-20 Thursday | -5.7% | -1.7% | -1.2% | +0.7% | +11.2% | +10.5% | -4.8% | 45% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -232% | |
| 2023-01-25 Wednesday | +23.2% | +10.5% | +10.9% | +2.1% | -2.8% | +18.5% | +5.0% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +69% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | NEGATIVE | -6.3% | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.8% | +5.5% | +8.8% | -11.1% | 51% | Sideways / High (>25) | -33% |
| 2022-07-21 Thursday | +17.9% | -10.3% | -8.1% | +3.9% | +6.2% | +0.0% | -10.3% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -16% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | -12.8% | +0.0% | +0.6% | +5.2% | +0.6% | +6.9% | -6.6% | 32% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -4% | |
| 2022-01-26 Wednesday | -15.4% | +11.4% | +7.7% | +6.5% | -0.5% | +21.5% | +3.2% | 33% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2021-10-22 Friday | +1.3% | +1.6% | +2.2% | -0.1% | +13.0% | +34.0% | -1.5% | 40% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2021-07-21 Wednesday | -2.2% | -0.1% | +0.7% | +4.2% | +7.1% | +14.4% | -0.8% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2021-04-22 Thursday | +17.9% | -0.7% | +6.0% | +8.6% | +9.4% | +27.3% | -1.1% | 18% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2021-01-21 Thursday | -2.2% | -3.9% | -4.7% | +11.1% | +21.9% | +22.4% | -7.3% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2020-10-22 Thursday | +9.2% | -3.9% | -2.0% | -6.1% | +10.2% | +9.0% | -9.4% | 17% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +3% | |
| 2020-07-28 Tuesday | +1.7% | -7.3% | -8.8% | +2.4% | +2.5% | -3.6% | -10.4% | 26% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -7% | |
| 2020-04-22 Wednesday | +16.8% | -2.6% | -5.6% | +6.6% | +8.3% | +3.5% | -9.2% | 45% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +5% | |
| 2020-02-04 Tuesday | +1.3% | -3.3% | -7.2% | +1.9% | -6.0% | -2.0% | -21.7% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2019-11-01 Friday | +7.3% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +5.1% | -1.9% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-08-02 Friday | -4.9% | -3.0% | -1.1% | +1.0% | +13.0% | +13.8% | -3.5% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | -0.2% | +2.9% | -0.0% | +0.5% | -9.5% | +3.1% | -12.8% | 35% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2019-02-04 Monday | +19.4% | -4.5% | -0.9% | -1.1% | +2.5% | +7.4% | -4.8% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2018-11-02 Friday | -5.4% | -0.9% | +1.5% | -4.3% | -0.4% | +4.8% | -8.6% | 53% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2018-07-30 Monday | -4.4% | +0.7% | -2.6% | +3.1% | +7.1% | +5.8% | -7.3% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2018-05-01 Tuesday | -7.0% | -3.7% | +0.9% | +3.3% | +6.1% | +10.7% | -3.9% | 39% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2018-01-29 Monday | POSITIVE | +31.1% | -2.0% | -0.2% | -9.7% | -3.8% | +2.4% | -16.3% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% |
| 2017-10-23 Monday | 1 | +18.7% | +0.4% | -1.3% | -5.6% | +2.6% | +2.5% | -8.3% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% |
| 2017-07-25 Tuesday | 1 | -21.7% | +0.5% | -2.6% | +3.2% | -0.1% | +2.5% | -6.5% | 73% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -34% |
| 2017-04-26 Wednesday | 1 | -7.2% | +0.4% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +1.0% | +4.9% | -1.9% | 70% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +2% |
| 2017-01-24 Tuesday | -4.0% | +13.4% | +14.0% | +5.8% | +11.0% | +29.6% | +12.6% | 24% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +28% | |
| 2016-10-19 Wednesday | -6.5% | +0.5% | +1.9% | -0.4% | +9.4% | +12.9% | -5.5% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2016-08-02 Tuesday | 1 | +32.3% | -0.0% | +0.3% | +5.7% | +10.4% | +11.4% | -1.8% | 75% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +14% |
| 2016-04-29 Friday | 2 | -35.4% | -2.9% | -5.9% | -3.9% | +9.2% | +4.1% | -12.6% | 111% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -44% |
| 2016-01-29 Friday | -21.9% | +0.0% | +4.7% | +6.0% | +5.2% | +18.1% | -2.7% | 57% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2015-10-30 Friday | 1 | -11.9% | -0.8% | +2.1% | +1.4% | -6.1% | +7.5% | -13.6% | 67% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -5% |
| 2015-07-31 Friday | +5.1% | +0.4% | +1.7% | -2.8% | -0.5% | +5.0% | -8.9% | 28% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2015-04-17 Friday | +3.1% | +1.0% | +3.0% | -1.4% | -2.9% | +5.6% | -2.3% | 24% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2015-01-26 Monday | -14.2% | -0.1% | -3.4% | +1.3% | +7.3% | +7.0% | -5.4% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_STX.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.