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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: FORM has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed FORM earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.33 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +6.3% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.8% | 28 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +2.1% | 41 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.4%
Median reaction
+2.0%
Avg |move|
9.4%
Up rate
54%
Avg drift T-20
+1.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.6% | +0.1% | 12.2 | -30.4% / +39.7% | 50% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.0% | -0.1% | 5.3 | -14.2% / +15.6% | 50% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.9% | +2.5% | 9.0 | -24.0% / +15.1% | 63% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.4% | +2.0% | 11.7 | -24.1% / +31.1% | 54% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.0% | +2.0% | 6.7 | -15.5% / +14.6% | 57% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.8% | +3.1% | 11.7 | -17.7% / +42.2% | 65% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +13.9% | +15.3% | 14.1 | -14.1% / +49.6% | 83% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.7% | -5.8% | 11.1 | -33.1% / +10.7% | 28% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 41 | +2.1% | +2.2% | 11.9 | 56% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 2 | -2.9% | -2.9% | 10.2 | 50% |
| Thursday n<10 | 3 | -5.5% | -6.5% | 6.3 | 33% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +6.3% | +2.8% | 13.8 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +5.0% | +3.0% | 11.2 | 60% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +1.5% | -0.2% | 10.0 | 45% |
| Strong Up | 17 | -0.1% | +1.9% | 11.8 | 59% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -1.0% | +1.2% | 11.3 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 13 | +4.0% | +7.3% | 10.7 | 69% |
| Medium (15-25) | 28 | +0.8% | -0.4% | 11.8 | 46% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -2.4% | +3.0% | 12.2 | 60% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +9.9% | +11.2% | 10.4 | 76% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.9% | -2.5% | 9.6 | 40% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +0.6% | +0.8% | 8.1 | 55% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -5.2% | -1.1% | 11.9 | 25% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -12.6% | -10.8% | 5.3 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 21.4% | +0.3% | +6.2% | 0.01x |
| 2026-02-04 | 21.1% | +17.2% | +8.6% | 0.81x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | 1 | +39.7% | +6.2% | +0.3% | +9.7% | -4.2% | +16.3% | -17.1% | 65% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +28% |
| 2026-02-04 Wednesday | +11.8% | +8.6% | +17.2% | +14.6% | +3.3% | +49.6% | +6.2% | 64% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | 1 | +23.3% | +13.9% | +24.2% | -6.6% | -9.1% | +28.0% | -0.8% | 72% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -1.5% | -24.0% | -17.5% | -2.8% | +3.0% | -8.7% | -24.2% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 3 | -0.8% | +13.6% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +7.5% | +19.7% | +2.2% | 117% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | -10.8% | -18.9% | -6.8% | -6.4% | -16.9% | -4.7% | -24.7% | 49% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | -2.6% | -8.3% | -13.3% | +9.5% | +3.5% | -0.2% | -15.0% | 44% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | -12.1% | +0.2% | -11.8% | -8.8% | +3.7% | +3.1% | -29.6% | 62% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -4.7% | +9.1% | +17.6% | +8.5% | +10.1% | +38.2% | +8.5% | 39% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -5% | |
| 2024-02-07 Wednesday | -1.7% | +2.6% | +2.2% | +9.2% | +18.5% | +22.7% | +0.6% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | -2.5% | +5.9% | -0.9% | +8.1% | +13.4% | +18.9% | -3.8% | 37% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +10.5% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -4.6% | +0.2% | +1.3% | -18.1% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -10.1% | -1.4% | -3.1% | +7.6% | +19.1% | +19.5% | -9.3% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | +15.4% | +15.1% | +12.0% | +0.5% | -10.9% | +20.5% | -2.3% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +58% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +5.5% | -16.5% | -24.1% | -8.3% | +10.7% | -14.1% | -33.1% | 40% | Sideways / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | 1 | +2.2% | -18.6% | -13.9% | +2.0% | -5.5% | -7.8% | -21.3% | 54% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | -18.4% | +5.0% | +9.8% | +4.8% | -0.2% | +15.5% | +0.6% | 50% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +25% | |
| 2022-02-02 Wednesday | -4.6% | +1.6% | -5.4% | +5.1% | +0.1% | +1.7% | -13.6% | 64% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | -2.5% | +4.2% | +7.2% | +9.3% | +10.5% | +25.3% | +2.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.6% | +6.7% | +3.2% | +8.9% | -6.1% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | 1 | +12.0% | -12.9% | -18.2% | -3.9% | -11.4% | -6.4% | -31.9% | 49% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2021-02-03 Wednesday | -1.4% | +3.9% | +5.5% | +2.4% | -8.2% | +23.0% | -5.6% | 58% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +12.2% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +12.6% | +42.2% | +48.2% | +0.1% | 36% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +13% | |
| 2020-07-30 Thursday | +5.2% | -2.8% | -6.5% | -1.2% | -8.3% | -0.3% | -15.2% | 44% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | +14.9% | +5.0% | +6.3% | -6.8% | +6.0% | +14.1% | -4.8% | 57% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +53% | |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | +0.8% | -1.2% | -1.4% | +4.1% | -12.5% | +4.7% | -18.8% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +13.3% | +6.0% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +7.2% | +9.9% | -2.7% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +5.8% | +10.2% | +7.1% | -7.5% | -6.5% | +18.6% | -3.2% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | +10.2% | -13.2% | -9.5% | +1.9% | -14.4% | -2.5% | -23.9% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2019-02-06 Wednesday | +12.2% | -4.5% | -0.2% | +3.1% | -0.8% | +9.6% | -5.1% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -10.5% | +10.3% | +31.1% | -6.5% | +0.2% | +37.5% | +7.4% | 47% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | -4.0% | +3.5% | +8.4% | -1.1% | +8.1% | +18.0% | 0.0% | 48% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | 1 | -13.4% | +1.3% | +3.4% | +6.1% | +10.2% | +15.6% | -1.3% | 72% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% |
| 2018-02-07 Wednesday | -19.8% | -4.5% | -7.2% | +5.3% | +23.3% | +17.8% | -14.4% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -12% | |
| 2017-10-31 Tuesday | +7.1% | -9.1% | -13.2% | +9.2% | +0.9% | +2.5% | -14.4% | 19% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | +5.3% | +11.7% | +11.7% | -3.5% | +5.9% | +19.5% | +3.4% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +44% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | -1.8% | +11.1% | +22.2% | 0.0% | +6.9% | +31.1% | +10.7% | 46% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2017-02-08 Wednesday | +11.2% | +2.4% | -2.0% | -0.8% | -10.3% | +6.0% | -14.1% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | -2.0% | +1.4% | -12.6% | -2.8% | +22.1% | +9.6% | -18.9% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2016-08-02 Tuesday | +12.8% | +8.0% | +7.3% | -2.2% | +0.1% | +13.7% | +1.3% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2016-04-27 Wednesday | +2.8% | -2.8% | +8.7% | -15.5% | -11.2% | +13.9% | -13.4% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-02-04 Thursday | 1 | -18.7% | +1.3% | +2.8% | -9.9% | +9.8% | +16.2% | -10.3% | 66% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +23% |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | +14.2% | +3.4% | +10.7% | +2.2% | +2.0% | +15.0% | +2.3% | 33% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +93% | |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | -30.4% | +10.2% | +17.3% | -7.7% | -17.7% | +21.1% | -10.5% | 46% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +26% | |
| 2015-04-29 Wednesday | +3.8% | -4.5% | -13.5% | +4.6% | +14.7% | +0.3% | -20.3% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +38% | |
| 2015-02-04 Wednesday | -1.2% | +4.8% | +6.5% | +0.9% | +9.3% | +30.1% | +3.2% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +76% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_FORM.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.