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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: COHU has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed COHU earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.40 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -6.0% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.1% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | -0.3% | 36 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.6%
Median reaction
-1.2%
Avg |move|
6.2%
Up rate
46%
Avg drift T-20
+3.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +3.5% | +2.9% | 11.6 | -12.9% / +48.8% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.9% | +1.5% | 5.9 | -9.7% / +13.4% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 6.5 | -17.6% / +16.7% | 46% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.6% | -1.2% | 8.2 | -17.4% / +24.2% | 46% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.6% | -0.2% | 5.6 | -15.2% / +9.6% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.1% | +1.8% | 12.5 | -44.2% / +29.1% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +9.2% | +6.1% | 11.0 | -6.3% / +39.6% | 76% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -11.2% | -10.4% | 10.3 | -47.8% / +10.0% | 11% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday n<10 | 1 | +9.3% | +9.3% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Thursday | 36 | -0.3% | -1.0% | 7.1 | 47% |
| Monday n<10 | 3 | -0.3% | -9.3% | 17.5 | 33% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | -2.7% | -4.9% | 4.8 | 33% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | -6.1% | -6.1% | 5.2 | 33% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 11 | +1.1% | +2.0% | 7.6 | 55% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.4% | -5.5% | 13.3 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 16 | -0.7% | -3.0% | 5.9 | 38% |
| Sideways | 11 | -1.3% | +0.3% | 8.2 | 55% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -6.0% | -2.5% | 7.1 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +2.4% | +0.4% | 6.7 | 60% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | -0.8% | -2.4% | 8.9 | 40% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -1.1% | -1.1% | 7.9 | 46% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +9.7% | +7.7% | 13.5 | 81% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +2.8% | +2.0% | 8.2 | 64% |
| Sideways | 11 | -0.7% | -4.1% | 9.8 | 36% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -0.9% | -4.3% | 8.0 | 40% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -4.0% | -4.5% | 4.5 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 16.4% | -3.7% | +3.3% | 0.23x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | +48.8% | +3.3% | -3.7% | +4.2% | +15.7% | +16.6% | -12.2% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -68% | |
| 2026-02-12 Thursday | +16.7% | -11.6% | -6.7% | +3.1% | -10.9% | -2.5% | -18.8% | 48% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -342% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | +17.6% | +4.4% | +0.2% | +0.1% | -0.1% | +4.4% | -12.1% | 58% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +70% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | -12.9% | +7.4% | +7.1% | +2.2% | +6.3% | +19.6% | +0.1% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +220% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 2 | +4.3% | +6.5% | +3.9% | -3.1% | +2.3% | +15.2% | -4.5% | 81% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +88% |
| 2025-02-13 Thursday | -11.3% | -5.4% | -1.6% | -0.4% | -19.4% | +2.5% | -27.3% | 40% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -61% | |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | +2.0% | +5.7% | +9.8% | +3.8% | -3.5% | +18.1% | -1.0% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | -4.3% | -6.8% | -12.4% | -13.9% | -8.2% | -6.1% | -25.2% | 42% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +56% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -4.0% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.1% | +8.9% | +6.9% | -5.1% | 32% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +190% | |
| 2024-02-15 Thursday | +3.1% | -0.1% | -5.7% | -1.8% | -3.0% | -0.1% | -10.8% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -9.9% | -4.4% | +0.3% | -3.4% | +3.2% | +7.2% | -7.0% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +3.0% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -2.9% | -5.9% | +1.8% | -12.5% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | -5.4% | +0.9% | +2.3% | -0.6% | +11.7% | +17.9% | -2.8% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2023-02-16 Thursday | +4.8% | -1.2% | -3.3% | +1.9% | +5.2% | +4.9% | -9.2% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | +12.0% | +4.2% | +14.0% | -10.8% | +4.6% | +27.6% | +0.4% | 46% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2022-07-28 Thursday | 1 | +7.5% | +2.0% | -1.4% | +9.3% | +6.8% | +8.7% | -8.2% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | -9.2% | 0.0% | -2.5% | +6.9% | +11.2% | +10.7% | -6.3% | 44% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2022-02-10 Thursday | -10.6% | +1.1% | -5.5% | +5.4% | -8.1% | +1.5% | -20.7% | 60% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | +3.4% | -3.1% | -2.9% | +9.6% | +5.2% | +17.8% | -8.8% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | -6.4% | -1.5% | +2.9% | -2.0% | -8.1% | +6.4% | -15.8% | 51% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | 1 | -7.2% | +1.5% | +3.0% | -5.6% | -7.3% | +5.3% | -14.0% | 92% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% |
| 2021-02-11 Thursday | +11.3% | +2.7% | +0.1% | -7.9% | -16.7% | +2.7% | -27.7% | 57% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | 1 | +12.6% | +0.2% | +5.1% | +7.5% | +29.1% | +39.6% | -1.3% | 74% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +44% |
| 2020-07-30 Thursday | +17.1% | 0.0% | -3.1% | -5.9% | -10.4% | +0.4% | -13.6% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +138% | |
| 2020-05-05 Tuesday | 2 | +14.4% | -5.9% | -4.9% | -4.1% | +12.5% | +10.4% | -20.2% | 91% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +100% |
| 2020-02-12 Wednesday | +8.0% | -17.6% | -6.1% | -7.4% | -44.2% | -3.3% | -47.8% | 51% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -131% | |
| 2019-11-01 Friday | +25.2% | +8.9% | +9.3% | +3.3% | -7.6% | +17.5% | -1.6% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4700% | |
| 2019-08-05 Monday | -5.0% | -5.6% | -9.3% | +2.2% | -9.0% | -0.0% | -20.2% | 47% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2019-05-06 Monday | +2.7% | +7.2% | +24.2% | -15.2% | -19.4% | +29.6% | -8.9% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -29% | |
| 2019-03-12 Tuesday | -0.0% | -4.2% | -7.2% | -9.5% | -8.0% | -0.3% | -19.4% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2018-11-05 Monday | -4.5% | -11.5% | -15.9% | +1.7% | +3.5% | -6.3% | -22.1% | 47% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -22% | |
| 2018-08-02 Thursday | +3.8% | -2.5% | +3.6% | +0.0% | -0.3% | +9.7% | -2.5% | 32% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +35% | |
| 2018-05-08 Tuesday | -5.3% | -0.0% | +4.0% | +2.0% | +14.0% | +18.7% | -0.8% | 37% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2018-02-15 Thursday | -6.4% | -16.6% | -15.7% | +1.4% | +17.7% | +0.6% | -18.8% | 41% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2017-11-02 Thursday | +10.2% | -12.6% | -6.0% | +2.0% | -9.7% | -1.0% | -21.9% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +17.8% | +4.5% | -1.1% | -8.8% | -8.3% | +4.5% | -11.8% | 42% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +24% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | +18.6% | -2.2% | -11.9% | +4.9% | -3.0% | -1.9% | -17.0% | 32% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +49% | |
| 2017-02-16 Thursday | +3.6% | +16.7% | +15.2% | +6.3% | +13.0% | +31.2% | +10.0% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +174% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | -5.8% | +4.5% | +2.0% | -1.0% | +16.1% | +19.9% | -0.4% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +6.1% | -0.9% | -5.0% | -2.4% | +3.3% | -0.6% | -10.0% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | -4.1% | -0.3% | +1.5% | -2.7% | +2.1% | +5.8% | -5.1% | 36% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2016-02-11 Thursday | +1.7% | +3.4% | +0.4% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +11.6% | -1.8% | 35% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +50% | |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | +12.4% | +2.7% | +13.5% | +2.5% | +3.4% | +21.1% | +2.3% | 49% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +82% | |
| 2015-07-30 Thursday | -8.9% | -7.9% | -17.4% | -3.2% | -4.2% | -6.2% | -23.4% | 21% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +27% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -5.9% | +0.3% | +5.2% | +3.4% | +21.8% | +29.8% | +0.3% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +146% | |
| 2015-02-19 Thursday | +1.6% | +3.3% | -4.3% | -1.6% | +1.6% | +3.5% | -11.1% | 21% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +136% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_COHU.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.