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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ON habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, August 03, 2026
Next confirmed ON earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 45–45 trading days before the report (median 45).
Projected watch window: Jun 01 → Jun 01 · most likely around Mon Jun 01.
Projected watch window: Jun 01 → Jun 01 · most likely around Mon Jun 01.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Friday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 4% of the last 24 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.20 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +0.8% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.7% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +0.8% | 23 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.7%
Median reaction
+0.3%
Avg |move|
3.8%
Up rate
57%
Avg drift T-20
+4.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +4.3% | +2.1% | 15.8 | -30.0% / +60.7% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.5% | +1.2% | 8.7 | -21.9% / +19.0% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.7% | +0.4% | 3.4 | -8.0% / +10.5% | 54% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.7% | +0.3% | 4.8 | -10.7% / +10.9% | 57% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.8% | +0.6% | 5.6 | -11.1% / +15.9% | 54% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +4.1% | +4.8% | 11.1 | -20.4% / +33.0% | 65% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +12.1% | +11.9% | 8.0 | -5.8% / +31.4% | 98% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.3% | -6.2% | 7.1 | -22.0% / +6.7% | 17% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 2 | +9.0% | +9.0% | 2.0 | 100% |
| Monday | 23 | +0.8% | +0.5% | 3.0 | 65% |
| Friday | 21 | -0.1% | -1.1% | 5.7 | 43% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 10 | +2.0% | +0.8% | 4.5 | 70% |
| Strong Up | 17 | +1.9% | +1.2% | 4.6 | 71% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +0.8% | +1.6% | 6.9 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -0.5% | -2.9% | 4.6 | 40% |
| Sideways | 11 | -1.6% | -0.9% | 3.5 | 27% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 15 | +1.7% | +0.1% | 4.4 | 53% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 5.0 | 58% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -1.8% | +0.4% | 3.7 | 60% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +15.7% | +12.6% | 16.8 | 88% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +1.2% | +11.8% | 16.9 | 60% |
| Mild Up | 10 | -1.2% | +1.2% | 5.8 | 60% |
| Sideways | 11 | -2.7% | -4.1% | 9.0 | 27% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -11.4% | -6.8% | 6.5 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-06 Friday | NEGATIVE | Cut Q1 2020 revenue outlook to $1,275M-$1,325M from $1,355M-$1,405M citing COVID-19; announced ~$90M restructuring savings | 45d | -3.1% | -10.1% | -9.4% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 45–45 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=1) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 12.6% | +0.6% | -4.3% | 0.05x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 Monday | 1 | +60.7% | -4.3% | +0.6% | +4.5% | +25.3% | +27.9% | -5.8% | 54% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2026-02-09 Monday | +4.7% | -0.6% | +3.5% | +6.8% | -11.6% | +13.3% | -15.5% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | +0.2% | -0.3% | -4.3% | +0.5% | +6.6% | +3.0% | -11.7% | 64% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-08-04 Monday | 1 | -12.2% | +0.9% | -1.5% | -0.3% | +3.6% | +9.1% | -3.4% | 74% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% |
| 2025-05-05 Monday | 2 | +14.0% | -0.9% | +0.3% | +15.9% | +23.0% | +23.8% | -3.2% | 106% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2025-02-10 Monday | -12.8% | -0.1% | +1.9% | +8.4% | -10.6% | +22.8% | -11.0% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -2% | |
| 2024-10-28 Monday | -0.5% | 0.0% | +3.4% | -7.0% | -3.1% | +5.3% | -11.0% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | 1 | +14.2% | -0.6% | -5.5% | -6.8% | +1.1% | +1.5% | -15.4% | 66% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | -4.1% | -1.2% | -0.9% | -0.7% | +5.0% | +9.0% | -3.9% | 46% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2024-02-05 Monday | +2.5% | -0.7% | -1.6% | +6.0% | +0.9% | +7.5% | -3.5% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | 1 | -30.0% | -1.8% | -4.1% | +5.7% | +10.3% | +11.6% | -5.9% | 91% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +13.9% | -0.0% | +0.3% | -4.2% | -13.4% | +1.5% | -17.7% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2023-05-01 Monday | -4.8% | +1.3% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +6.1% | +14.7% | -1.6% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2023-02-06 Monday | +28.7% | +0.8% | +6.4% | -1.3% | -8.0% | +8.9% | -10.4% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2022-10-31 Monday | -5.2% | +2.1% | +0.5% | +6.0% | +14.5% | +25.8% | -4.9% | 67% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | +35.9% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +2.7% | +6.0% | +20.6% | -3.0% | 54% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -6.7% | 0.0% | +1.6% | -10.1% | +7.4% | +11.2% | -9.1% | 56% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2022-02-07 Monday | -3.6% | -0.2% | +6.0% | -11.1% | -15.4% | +7.8% | -14.9% | 71% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2021-11-01 Monday | 1 | +22.5% | +1.8% | +3.9% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +16.5% | +0.5% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% |
| 2021-08-02 Monday | 1 | +13.7% | +0.5% | +4.0% | +0.1% | -0.2% | +6.1% | -6.4% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +29% |
| 2021-05-03 Monday | -14.7% | +1.1% | -0.8% | -0.6% | +7.1% | +8.6% | -6.5% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-02-01 Monday | +12.2% | +2.2% | +0.4% | +8.0% | +9.7% | +15.4% | -1.1% | 45% | Sideways / High (>25) | +26% | |
| 2020-10-30 Friday | 1 | +11.8% | -3.1% | -2.9% | +9.1% | +18.0% | +17.3% | -4.9% | 46% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +34% |
| 2020-08-07 Friday | +1.7% | +0.6% | +5.2% | +0.6% | +3.5% | +10.9% | -0.6% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +545% | |
| 2020-05-08 Friday | +24.7% | -8.0% | -8.5% | -9.6% | +33.0% | +24.9% | -21.2% | 76% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -34% | |
| 2020-02-03 Monday | 1 | -19.4% | +0.2% | -0.5% | +3.6% | -8.5% | +10.0% | -15.1% | 61% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -7% |
| 2019-10-25 Friday | +2.7% | +3.8% | +10.6% | -0.7% | -1.9% | +16.5% | +3.8% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -8% | |
| 2019-08-02 Friday | -0.5% | -6.4% | -10.7% | -4.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% | -16.7% | 38% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2019-04-26 Friday | +10.7% | +1.3% | -1.1% | +6.0% | -20.4% | +4.9% | -22.0% | 27% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2019-02-01 Friday | +32.9% | +1.8% | +3.8% | +1.2% | +1.5% | +12.3% | -2.8% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-10-26 Friday | -20.7% | +10.5% | +8.8% | +13.8% | +18.2% | +31.4% | +6.7% | 47% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2018-07-27 Friday | +3.9% | +2.7% | -3.4% | -3.4% | -5.5% | +2.8% | -13.7% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2018-04-27 Friday | -6.0% | +0.0% | -3.9% | +2.5% | +17.1% | +12.6% | -6.7% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2018-02-02 Friday | +4.0% | -0.8% | -4.4% | -6.6% | +8.0% | +5.3% | -14.7% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2017-11-03 Friday | +12.6% | -1.1% | -1.1% | +0.7% | -11.3% | +2.3% | -13.4% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -24% | |
| 2017-08-04 Friday | +5.6% | +1.1% | +8.2% | -2.4% | +5.6% | +14.8% | +1.1% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -19% | |
| 2017-05-05 Friday | -4.4% | +4.0% | +0.1% | +2.7% | +11.6% | +12.3% | -3.1% | 33% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -15% | |
| 2017-02-10 Friday | +5.3% | +7.1% | +5.7% | +4.4% | +2.5% | +13.6% | +2.6% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2016-11-04 Friday | -5.8% | -2.6% | -0.9% | -2.1% | -2.0% | +8.0% | -7.2% | 19% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2016-08-05 Friday | +12.1% | +5.7% | +1.2% | -0.1% | +9.1% | +14.5% | +0.4% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-05-06 Friday | -1.1% | +4.2% | -3.2% | -1.8% | +7.7% | +6.1% | -6.0% | 30% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2016-02-05 Friday | -6.8% | -5.6% | -8.1% | -4.5% | +21.8% | +13.4% | -13.4% | 43% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | +10.7% | +7.3% | +7.0% | +2.5% | -2.5% | +13.0% | -7.3% | 54% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2015-07-31 Friday | -7.3% | -0.7% | -2.6% | -0.9% | -4.5% | +2.5% | -20.9% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2015-05-01 Friday | +0.9% | +7.0% | +5.8% | -1.6% | +4.7% | +13.1% | +1.0% | 36% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2015-02-05 Thursday | +1.5% | +3.5% | +10.9% | +1.9% | +13.3% | +29.6% | +3.5% | 25% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ON.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.