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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: VRT has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed VRT earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-21: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+0.5%), SOX Strong Down, VIX 17.0 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.38 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | +0.3% | 9 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | +1.5% | 15 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.0% | 19 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +1.9% | 24 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
25
Avg reaction
+1.9%
Median reaction
+1.3%
Avg |move|
3.7%
Up rate
68%
Avg drift T-20
+8.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 25 | +8.5% | +3.3% | 19.7 | -41.6% / +43.9% | 76% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 25 | +4.0% | -0.2% | 15.3 | -42.9% / +36.1% | 48% |
| Overnight gap | 25 | +1.0% | +1.2% | 2.9 | -7.3% / +7.4% | 76% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 25 | +1.9% | +1.3% | 4.2 | -6.8% / +9.8% | 68% |
| Follow-through +5d | 25 | +1.0% | +0.4% | 4.8 | -4.8% / +15.4% | 56% |
| Follow-through +20d | 25 | +3.8% | +2.1% | 14.7 | -24.0% / +30.7% | 60% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 25 | +15.3% | +13.3% | 11.2 | +1.4% / +41.0% | 100% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 25 | -8.7% | -6.5% | 8.7 | -31.6% / +4.6% | 12% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 1 | +2.4% | +2.4% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 24 | +1.9% | +1.2% | 4.3 | 67% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +4.5% | +6.8% | 3.8 | 67% |
| Strong Up n<10 | 8 | +3.5% | +2.8% | 3.8 | 88% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +1.7% | +1.5% | 3.0 | 75% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +0.3% | +0.1% | 4.3 | 56% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | -2.7% | -2.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 19 | +2.0% | +1.5% | 4.6 | 68% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +1.7% | +0.7% | 2.8 | 67% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +16.1% | +11.3% | 16.6 | 100% |
| Strong Up n<10 | 8 | +15.7% | +14.4% | 10.6 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +6.1% | +2.9% | 25.2 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -6.1% | -5.7% | 7.0 | 33% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | -14.3% | -14.3% | 0.0 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 4.5% | +5.4% | -0.3% | 1.22x |
| 2026-02-11 | 5.7% | -4.8% | -1.8% | 0.85x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 exp 2026-04-24 · ATM 305 | +5.4% | 69.0% → 83.0% (+14 pts) | +173.2% | -87.9% | +44.5% | -44.5% | +47.3% | -47.3% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 Wednesday | +12.6% | -0.3% | +5.4% | -4.8% | -1.9% | +24.5% | -3.7% | 62% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2026-02-11 Wednesday | 2 | +43.9% | -1.8% | -4.8% | +2.8% | +12.2% | +11.4% | -8.6% | 88% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2025-10-22 Wednesday | +21.2% | +1.7% | +6.8% | +8.8% | -6.8% | +18.0% | -7.9% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +17.6% | +3.2% | +1.0% | -4.0% | -11.2% | +5.8% | -15.8% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2025-04-23 Wednesday | 4 | -14.8% | +2.9% | +7.5% | +1.8% | +23.5% | +41.0% | +2.6% | 116% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +4% |
| 2025-02-12 Wednesday | 1 | -13.7% | +1.6% | -1.8% | -4.1% | -24.0% | +2.9% | -31.6% | 140% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2024-10-23 Wednesday | +7.6% | +1.1% | +1.5% | +2.2% | +25.0% | +30.8% | -3.5% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-07-24 Wednesday | 1 | -14.3% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +2.9% | +2.0% | +5.7% | -20.6% | 72% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +17% |
| 2024-04-24 Wednesday | +2.3% | -1.9% | +6.8% | -2.0% | +10.8% | +23.9% | -3.2% | 59% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2024-02-21 Wednesday | +9.1% | +7.4% | +7.4% | +5.1% | +23.8% | +36.1% | +4.6% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | +3.3% | +0.5% | -6.8% | +15.4% | +24.8% | +20.8% | -7.5% | 54% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | 1 | +41.1% | -0.6% | +0.6% | +0.9% | +12.7% | +14.5% | -5.6% | 91% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +59% |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | 1 | +2.9% | +3.0% | +6.6% | +3.0% | +12.1% | +23.4% | +1.0% | 57% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +47% |
| 2023-02-22 Wednesday | +1.8% | +2.5% | +6.1% | -2.0% | -18.3% | +7.0% | -16.9% | 60% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | 1 | +41.2% | +4.5% | +1.3% | -4.8% | -6.3% | +10.0% | -8.3% | 84% | Sideways / High (>25) | +12% |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +38.8% | +1.8% | +9.8% | -1.6% | -12.4% | +14.1% | -5.7% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | 1 | -5.7% | +0.8% | -0.8% | +4.2% | -19.8% | +3.5% | -25.3% | 74% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +51% |
| 2022-02-23 Wednesday | 1 | -41.6% | -7.3% | +0.1% | -3.1% | +5.8% | +11.3% | -22.5% | 164% | Sideways / High (>25) | -86% |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | +1.7% | +1.5% | +4.1% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +13.3% | -0.6% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | +1.6% | +1.2% | +1.9% | -1.8% | -1.6% | +3.0% | -4.6% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +16.2% | +1.2% | +1.1% | -1.6% | +5.0% | +7.3% | -5.5% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +80% | |
| 2021-02-24 Wednesday | +0.4% | +2.9% | -2.3% | +2.8% | -5.6% | +3.9% | -8.8% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -4.1% | +3.3% | -0.4% | +0.4% | +11.4% | +13.9% | -4.1% | 23% | Sideways / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | 1 | +22.1% | +0.4% | -2.8% | -4.0% | +1.3% | +1.4% | -8.7% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +117% |
| 2020-05-05 Tuesday | +20.9% | -5.3% | +2.4% | +8.5% | +30.7% | +34.7% | -6.5% | 47% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -125% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_VRT.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.