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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: RDWR has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed RDWR earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.25 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -0.3% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.9% | 27 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.4% | 36 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.6%
Median reaction
-0.2%
Avg |move|
2.0%
Up rate
35%
Avg drift T-20
+0.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +0.6% | +3.1% | 10.6 | -21.4% / +24.0% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.6% | +0.3% | 8.3 | -15.9% / +26.0% | 50% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.0% | +0.1% | 1.5 | -4.9% / +4.2% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.6% | -0.2% | 2.7 | -8.7% / +5.3% | 35% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.6% | +1.1% | 4.3 | -10.7% / +13.9% | 59% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.1% | +2.4% | 7.2 | -14.1% / +15.6% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +6.7% | +6.6% | 4.2 | -2.9% / +16.3% | 96% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -6.7% | -4.4% | 5.5 | -20.5% / +0.3% | 2% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 36 | -0.4% | -0.2% | 2.9 | 36% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 6 | -0.8% | -0.1% | 1.6 | 33% |
| Thursday n<10 | 3 | -2.1% | -3.1% | 1.8 | 33% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -2.8% | -2.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 2.5 | 33% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 1.5 | 40% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | -0.5% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 44% |
| Strong Up | 17 | -0.5% | -1.1% | 2.6 | 29% |
| Sideways | 12 | -0.9% | -0.1% | 3.1 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 14 | +0.2% | 0.0% | 1.7 | 43% |
| Medium (15-25) | 27 | -0.9% | -0.6% | 2.7 | 30% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -1.3% | -0.2% | 4.3 | 40% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +3.9% | +6.1% | 7.9 | 71% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | +2.9% | +4.6% | 7.9 | 89% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -2.2% | -9.5% | 14.7 | 40% |
| Sideways | 12 | -2.3% | -4.8% | 10.6 | 42% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -8.3% | -13.3% | 13.3 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 6.0% | -3.1% | +2.1% | 0.52x |
| 2026-02-11 | 8.9% | -4.8% | +1.1% | 0.53x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 Thursday | +10.5% | +2.1% | -3.1% | -0.5% | +1.7% | +12.6% | -6.5% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -11% | |
| 2026-02-11 Wednesday | +14.8% | +1.1% | -4.8% | -5.1% | -3.0% | +3.1% | -20.5% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | -2.4% | +0.1% | -2.3% | -6.3% | -10.5% | +4.8% | -16.6% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -9.8% | 0.0% | -4.1% | -1.2% | +0.6% | +1.5% | -10.8% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | +15.4% | +2.1% | -1.7% | +7.8% | +9.1% | +9.3% | -4.4% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2025-02-12 Wednesday | +13.6% | +1.1% | +0.5% | -3.0% | -13.0% | +1.7% | -12.8% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | +0.1% | -0.0% | -3.6% | +2.6% | +9.5% | +9.3% | -5.8% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | 1 | +24.0% | -0.3% | -1.6% | -3.3% | -2.8% | +1.7% | -7.6% | 75% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +24% |
| 2024-05-08 Wednesday | 1 | +7.8% | -0.3% | +2.9% | +1.8% | -4.3% | +7.4% | -3.0% | 46% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +22% |
| 2024-02-07 Wednesday | +13.1% | +0.3% | +4.7% | -4.8% | -6.9% | +6.0% | -7.6% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | -14.8% | 0.0% | +1.9% | +4.2% | +4.1% | +11.2% | -1.3% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -6% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | 1 | -16.5% | -1.4% | +3.1% | +2.7% | +3.1% | +8.2% | -4.2% | 64% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -26% |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -18.8% | -0.7% | +2.8% | +6.1% | +6.1% | +13.9% | -0.9% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | +1.1% | +0.6% | +5.3% | +2.7% | -1.8% | +10.0% | +0.3% | 39% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | 1 | -12.1% | -4.9% | -8.7% | +13.9% | +15.6% | +13.2% | -12.3% | 57% | Sideways / High (>25) | -6% |
| 2022-08-08 Monday | +6.3% | +1.0% | -2.8% | +4.9% | -2.5% | +3.6% | -10.4% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | -13.3% | -0.7% | -3.2% | -10.7% | -11.3% | -0.7% | -19.6% | 38% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-02-09 Wednesday | -14.3% | -2.3% | -2.2% | +4.8% | +8.3% | +15.7% | -3.7% | 48% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +3.4% | +0.1% | -2.9% | -1.8% | -14.1% | +4.8% | -19.1% | 21% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | +4.1% | +1.0% | -0.2% | +0.5% | +5.4% | +6.2% | -4.4% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | +4.0% | +4.2% | -0.7% | -0.2% | +4.2% | +8.6% | -3.9% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2021-02-10 Wednesday | +1.7% | -4.0% | -7.3% | +0.4% | -0.7% | -2.9% | -14.4% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -5% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -4.3% | +0.4% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +5.5% | +10.7% | -0.2% | 20% | Sideways / High (>25) | +7% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +9.0% | -1.0% | -0.1% | +1.2% | +2.2% | +2.8% | -3.0% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | +7.0% | +2.8% | +3.0% | -1.7% | +2.6% | +7.8% | -0.7% | 31% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -4% | |
| 2020-02-12 Wednesday | 1 | -10.5% | +0.0% | -2.5% | +5.3% | -12.2% | +5.9% | -15.0% | 56% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -5% |
| 2019-11-06 Wednesday | +1.5% | +0.9% | -1.3% | -0.8% | +2.9% | +2.9% | -4.1% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +52% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +6.7% | +0.5% | +0.3% | -1.4% | -8.1% | +2.3% | -8.1% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +38% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | -5.3% | -0.6% | -0.9% | +0.6% | -6.2% | +0.8% | -8.0% | 18% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +47% | |
| 2019-02-06 Wednesday | +4.6% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +2.2% | +6.4% | -3.1% | 16% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +40% | |
| 2018-11-07 Wednesday | +9.9% | +0.7% | +2.8% | -5.5% | -11.2% | +5.0% | -12.0% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +41% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | +4.8% | +0.0% | 0.0% | +3.8% | +5.5% | +8.2% | -1.8% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +30% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +7.7% | +0.6% | 0.0% | +2.4% | +1.4% | +3.7% | -8.0% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2018-02-07 Wednesday | +2.7% | +1.0% | -0.2% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +4.6% | -2.8% | 27% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +24% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | +10.9% | +0.3% | 0.0% | +1.2% | +5.8% | +7.2% | -2.2% | 33% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | -1.8% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +1.6% | +0.8% | +4.2% | -1.3% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -14% | |
| 2017-04-25 Tuesday | +3.6% | 0.0% | +0.5% | -0.7% | +4.8% | +7.1% | -2.0% | 30% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +60% | |
| 2017-02-08 Wednesday | +6.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | +4.9% | +3.2% | +6.8% | -1.9% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2016-11-01 Tuesday | -9.4% | -2.9% | -2.6% | +2.0% | +11.7% | +11.8% | -7.1% | 41% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -- | |
| 2016-07-26 Tuesday | +13.9% | +0.3% | -0.2% | -1.2% | +9.7% | +12.2% | -3.0% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2016-05-03 Tuesday | -5.6% | 0.0% | +1.1% | +1.0% | +14.3% | +16.3% | -1.6% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -23% | |
| 2016-02-03 Wednesday | 1 | -21.4% | -1.9% | -0.4% | -9.1% | +5.5% | +6.1% | -12.3% | 59% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | 1 | -7.4% | -1.4% | -1.1% | +2.4% | +7.7% | +7.4% | -4.3% | 86% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -22% |
| 2015-07-28 Tuesday | -16.0% | -0.9% | -0.1% | +4.7% | -2.8% | +9.4% | -5.2% | 40% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -5% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | +14.4% | +0.7% | +0.5% | -4.3% | -0.7% | +2.0% | -7.1% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -21% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | 1 | -9.5% | +1.5% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +7.5% | +9.4% | -3.6% | 53% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_RDWR.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.