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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: MX has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed MX earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.12 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.3% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -5.0% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +4.0% | 16 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-1.7%
Median reaction
-0.6%
Avg |move|
9.1%
Up rate
46%
Avg drift T-20
+2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.2% | -0.6% | 15.4 | -17.2% / +80.4% | 46% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.2% | +0.0% | 8.1 | -20.0% / +37.6% | 50% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -1.2% | -0.2% | 11.4 | -57.3% / +16.1% | 48% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -1.7% | -0.6% | 13.3 | -49.9% / +18.6% | 46% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -1.1% | -2.1% | 10.8 | -22.1% / +28.1% | 43% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.8% | -1.3% | 18.1 | -50.0% / +79.2% | 46% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.7% | +11.4% | 18.6 | -46.1% / +77.1% | 76% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -14.5% | -12.2% | 15.1 | -66.7% / +8.1% | 13% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 16 | +4.0% | +3.3% | 9.0 | 56% |
| Monday n<10 | 8 | -0.7% | -0.6% | 8.4 | 50% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 6 | -4.9% | -1.2% | 14.1 | 33% |
| Thursday | 16 | -6.8% | -2.8% | 16.0 | 38% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways | 11 | +5.0% | +7.1% | 9.1 | 64% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +4.9% | +1.6% | 5.7 | 100% |
| Mild Up | 11 | -0.9% | -0.8% | 10.0 | 45% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -2.3% | -1.9% | 1.6 | 0% |
| Strong Up | 18 | -7.4% | -3.8% | 16.4 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 15 | +4.2% | +4.3% | 10.3 | 73% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -2.8% | -0.5% | 5.4 | 40% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -5.0% | -1.8% | 14.7 | 31% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 18 | +8.3% | +0.9% | 19.9 | 50% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +1.2% | +2.1% | 8.5 | 64% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | -0.4% | -2.3% | 4.8 | 33% |
| Sideways | 11 | -3.1% | -6.2% | 9.9 | 27% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -8.4% | -17.0% | 12.2 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 30.4% | -31.8% | -7.2% | 1.05x |
| 2026-03-04 | 100.7% | +7.1% | +6.3% | 0.07x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | 2 | +80.4% | -7.2% | -31.8% | +22.9% | +79.2% | +40.7% | -38.4% | 104% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +50% |
| 2026-03-04 Wednesday | -6.6% | +6.3% | +7.1% | -2.4% | -1.4% | +16.4% | -2.2% | 65% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +75% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | -4.0% | -11.2% | -8.4% | -19.3% | -1.4% | -7.1% | -29.9% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +88% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | +1.7% | -23.2% | -27.8% | -8.1% | +6.1% | -19.5% | -35.1% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +36% | |
| 2025-05-12 Monday | +19.3% | +2.1% | -2.4% | +25.8% | +16.6% | +36.8% | -4.5% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +55% | |
| 2025-03-12 Wednesday | -17.0% | +0.5% | -4.5% | +11.2% | -20.0% | +11.3% | -34.3% | 48% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +137% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | -4.9% | -1.1% | -1.6% | -11.6% | -3.6% | +2.2% | -20.5% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -82% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +6.3% | +7.3% | +13.0% | -13.0% | -17.0% | +17.5% | -7.5% | 31% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +36% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -9.9% | +4.9% | +3.2% | -3.0% | -1.2% | +8.3% | -2.2% | 27% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2024-02-28 Wednesday | 0.0% | -4.0% | -14.8% | -3.7% | -2.6% | -3.7% | -22.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -6.2% | -6.4% | -3.1% | -8.0% | -10.8% | -2.1% | -16.8% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +77% | |
| 2023-08-07 Monday | -9.7% | +0.9% | +0.7% | -6.3% | -11.8% | +4.3% | -13.3% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +69% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -5.7% | -2.3% | -0.3% | +0.2% | +18.6% | +27.4% | -5.8% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -23% | |
| 2023-02-16 Thursday | -2.4% | -11.4% | -5.2% | +0.2% | -10.1% | -1.2% | -15.0% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -38% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | -7.0% | -8.2% | -5.8% | -5.2% | +3.2% | +1.7% | -11.7% | 46% | Sideways / High (>25) | +135% | |
| 2022-08-08 Monday | -8.4% | -7.5% | -14.0% | +9.8% | -5.4% | -4.4% | -21.6% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | 1 | +8.9% | -2.5% | -0.5% | -9.5% | +9.2% | +13.2% | -13.8% | 64% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +18% |
| 2022-02-16 Wednesday | +0.9% | -3.1% | -0.8% | -2.5% | -6.6% | +1.3% | -19.5% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-10-25 Monday | +2.1% | +0.2% | -1.4% | +4.2% | +2.5% | +7.1% | -4.6% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +110% | |
| 2021-08-05 Thursday | -12.9% | -3.3% | -7.1% | -0.6% | -6.5% | +2.0% | -15.4% | 25% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -27% | |
| 2021-05-10 Monday | -5.0% | -2.1% | +0.2% | -5.0% | -2.7% | +2.7% | -12.5% | 18% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +63% | |
| 2021-02-17 Wednesday | +11.0% | +5.3% | -1.7% | -3.8% | +18.4% | +24.6% | -11.4% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +217% | |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | -2.3% | +7.6% | +1.6% | +4.9% | +4.1% | +12.2% | 0.0% | 33% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +101% | |
| 2020-07-30 Thursday | +10.2% | -2.9% | +0.3% | +6.8% | +5.1% | +11.4% | -4.1% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +79% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | -0.9% | -3.2% | +2.5% | -13.6% | -2.2% | +10.2% | -17.9% | 62% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +60% | |
| 2020-02-19 Wednesday | -5.7% | +6.7% | +4.0% | -19.2% | -50.0% | +9.0% | -56.4% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +42% | |
| 2019-10-23 Wednesday | +12.5% | +7.3% | +4.4% | +2.2% | -4.8% | +15.2% | -3.9% | 35% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +73% | |
| 2019-07-30 Tuesday | -0.2% | +11.3% | +4.3% | -4.8% | -6.5% | +13.3% | -8.4% | 36% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +162% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | 1 | +15.8% | +7.3% | +12.5% | -0.4% | -18.3% | +17.9% | -11.9% | 54% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -17% |
| 2019-02-14 Thursday | +5.9% | -6.4% | -2.6% | +12.9% | +11.4% | +27.1% | -8.6% | 59% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2018-10-30 Tuesday | -17.2% | -0.2% | -1.9% | +1.6% | -14.2% | +6.3% | -18.4% | 44% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2018-07-30 Monday | +9.3% | +16.1% | +3.6% | +6.0% | -2.2% | +16.6% | -1.8% | 29% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +40% | |
| 2018-04-30 Monday | -1.1% | +8.0% | +16.6% | -1.8% | +2.8% | +23.5% | +5.3% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -33% | |
| 2018-02-06 Tuesday | 1 | +2.3% | -1.8% | -12.1% | -8.6% | +2.0% | -0.9% | -21.0% | 56% | Sideways / High (>25) | +2% |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | -8.8% | +1.9% | +9.1% | +2.2% | +7.9% | +28.9% | +1.0% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | +14.2% | +9.7% | +14.8% | -15.7% | -8.4% | +17.5% | -7.4% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +435% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | -10.3% | +1.2% | +17.0% | -6.2% | -9.3% | +23.6% | +0.6% | 32% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +111% | |
| 2017-02-09 Thursday | 1 | +22.4% | -5.5% | -9.2% | +1.3% | -0.7% | -3.0% | -14.6% | 50% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -67% |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | +3.9% | -19.5% | -26.6% | -15.3% | +12.1% | -11.2% | -38.5% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -233% | |
| 2016-08-03 Wednesday | +11.2% | +4.2% | +18.6% | +1.9% | +18.3% | +45.6% | +3.9% | 17% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +80% | |
| 2016-05-05 Thursday | -12.8% | +14.1% | +7.2% | -4.3% | +14.3% | +24.6% | +1.1% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +69% | |
| 2016-02-17 Wednesday | 3 | -17.2% | +5.8% | +17.4% | +28.1% | +35.3% | +77.1% | -5.5% | 103% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +132% |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | -2.6% | -3.0% | -15.6% | +2.5% | +4.3% | -2.1% | -21.5% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2015-08-06 Thursday | +12.2% | -0.2% | -1.2% | +7.6% | +1.9% | +14.6% | -21.4% | 37% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +21% | |
| 2015-05-28 Thursday | +14.5% | +8.8% | +12.2% | +10.2% | +9.1% | +25.8% | +8.1% | 51% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +15% | |
| 2015-02-12 Thursday | 1 | +16.0% | -57.3% | -49.9% | -22.1% | -30.3% | -46.1% | -66.7% | 62% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -500% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_MX.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.