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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: MPWR has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed MPWR earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.55 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +4.9% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.9% | 28 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +1.4% | 19 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+2.3%
Median reaction
+1.7%
Avg |move|
5.0%
Up rate
70%
Avg drift T-20
+4.0%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +4.0% | +3.3% | 11.4 | -14.2% / +44.2% | 65% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.6% | +0.8% | 4.3 | -13.6% / +8.0% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.1% | +1.8% | 4.8 | -11.7% / +8.3% | 72% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +2.3% | +1.7% | 6.0 | -17.4% / +14.2% | 70% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.8% | +0.8% | 5.0 | -11.1% / +11.7% | 54% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.4% | +3.0% | 9.9 | -26.2% / +23.0% | 65% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.6% | +10.4% | 9.1 | -9.8% / +37.7% | 91% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.2% | -5.5% | 8.6 | -40.6% / +5.3% | 22% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 6 | +4.4% | +5.2% | 2.2 | 100% |
| Monday | 10 | +4.0% | +3.0% | 4.7 | 80% |
| Thursday | 19 | +1.4% | +3.0% | 5.7 | 63% |
| Wednesday | 11 | +1.1% | +0.5% | 8.0 | 55% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 9 | +5.5% | +5.8% | 3.2 | 100% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | +4.9% | +3.4% | 3.8 | 100% |
| Strong Up | 15 | +2.7% | +4.5% | 7.6 | 60% |
| Mild Up | 10 | -0.2% | -0.0% | 3.9 | 50% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -0.2% | +1.6% | 5.5 | 62% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +6.0% | +6.2% | 3.2 | 100% |
| Medium (15-25) | 28 | +1.9% | +2.4% | 6.5 | 68% |
| Low (<15) | 12 | +1.3% | +0.6% | 4.9 | 58% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +10.6% | +8.7% | 12.7 | 87% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +3.1% | +3.1% | 8.8 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 9 | +2.3% | +1.3% | 10.5 | 67% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 6.8 | 62% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -8.3% | -8.9% | 5.0 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 13.1% | -1.9% | -3.1% | 0.15x |
| 2026-02-05 | 11.9% | +6.4% | +8.1% | 0.54x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | 1 | +44.2% | -3.1% | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.1% | +6.2% | -12.5% | 51% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2026-02-05 Thursday | +20.5% | +8.1% | +6.4% | -6.0% | -16.8% | +8.7% | -12.4% | 38% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | +16.9% | -6.2% | -7.6% | -4.7% | -7.6% | -4.3% | -23.4% | 58% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | -7.0% | +4.0% | +10.5% | +1.6% | +9.3% | +23.0% | +0.0% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 3 | +1.9% | +2.2% | +5.9% | +0.5% | +3.9% | +25.5% | +1.2% | 124% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2025-02-06 Thursday | 1 | +5.8% | +3.9% | +9.0% | -2.8% | -17.1% | +9.6% | -15.6% | 62% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | +0.1% | -10.2% | -17.4% | +3.4% | -26.2% | -9.8% | -40.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | 1 | -6.5% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +6.0% | +16.9% | +22.2% | -7.0% | 76% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | +0.4% | +4.4% | +9.2% | +0.1% | +4.3% | +18.9% | +2.9% | 42% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-02-07 Wednesday | +8.7% | +5.4% | +14.2% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +20.4% | +5.3% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | -12.1% | +5.3% | +9.3% | +11.7% | +23.0% | +37.7% | +1.2% | 42% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +3.6% | -8.5% | -1.6% | -1.6% | -10.2% | -0.8% | -15.2% | 49% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | -3.0% | -11.7% | -10.4% | -3.1% | +20.9% | +20.6% | -16.5% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | +19.3% | +5.8% | +10.2% | +3.9% | -3.5% | +14.6% | +2.0% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | -9.8% | -1.3% | +5.3% | -3.6% | +6.5% | +24.4% | -2.9% | 58% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | +26.7% | +6.9% | +9.4% | +5.9% | -8.7% | +17.1% | -0.4% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -11.4% | +8.3% | +11.3% | -11.1% | -1.6% | +17.4% | -8.5% | 63% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2022-02-10 Thursday | -9.3% | +8.2% | +4.2% | +8.9% | -6.7% | +20.5% | -8.3% | 58% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | +13.4% | -6.8% | -4.4% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +5.5% | -9.0% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | +8.9% | +0.7% | +5.8% | +5.9% | +12.6% | +20.6% | -0.5% | 24% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-05-04 Tuesday | -10.8% | +3.3% | +1.1% | -5.2% | +1.7% | +5.0% | -9.8% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-02-04 Thursday | +2.5% | +5.6% | -2.2% | +7.0% | -7.4% | +8.5% | -15.9% | 50% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | +13.7% | -3.5% | +0.3% | +11.6% | +2.7% | +12.6% | -7.0% | 39% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2020-07-28 Tuesday | +7.6% | +2.1% | +6.6% | +4.5% | +2.9% | +14.6% | +1.0% | 27% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2020-04-28 Tuesday | 1 | +15.8% | +4.0% | +6.4% | -3.2% | +3.0% | +14.8% | -5.4% | 60% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +1% |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | +5.9% | +0.1% | -2.7% | +4.9% | -5.2% | +3.3% | -19.6% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2019-10-22 Tuesday | -8.1% | +1.2% | +4.5% | +1.1% | +7.3% | +15.3% | -0.8% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +8.6% | +6.0% | +1.1% | -2.3% | -1.8% | +9.0% | -6.2% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +7.9% | -7.0% | -7.2% | -5.7% | -19.7% | -5.0% | -26.5% | 16% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2019-02-12 Tuesday | +9.6% | -2.1% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +3.3% | +6.3% | -3.3% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -14.2% | +1.0% | +3.9% | +10.4% | +10.4% | +20.7% | -5.9% | 50% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | -0.8% | +2.1% | +0.5% | -3.1% | +6.9% | +8.3% | -5.0% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2018-04-30 Monday | +5.7% | +2.2% | +1.7% | +4.0% | +10.4% | +13.4% | -1.8% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2018-02-08 Thursday | -13.5% | +1.1% | +6.0% | +5.5% | +13.4% | +20.4% | +1.1% | 41% | Sideways / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +7.9% | +2.0% | +5.3% | -0.8% | +3.9% | +10.4% | +0.6% | 11% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | +10.5% | -4.9% | -2.1% | -2.6% | -6.7% | +0.7% | -10.6% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2017-04-26 Wednesday | +1.3% | +1.4% | +0.8% | -3.9% | +3.1% | +4.9% | -4.3% | 19% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-02-09 Thursday | +3.1% | -1.4% | -0.7% | -2.5% | +1.0% | +0.8% | -5.1% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-10-31 Monday | -0.5% | +0.6% | -2.9% | +2.7% | +8.6% | +7.6% | -4.8% | 16% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2016-07-25 Monday | +10.9% | -0.2% | +0.8% | -1.3% | +2.5% | +3.3% | -4.4% | 30% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2016-05-02 Monday | +0.1% | +3.1% | +1.5% | -4.0% | +6.0% | +8.6% | -5.5% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-02-04 Thursday | -1.1% | +5.0% | +3.0% | -6.2% | +3.0% | +7.3% | -5.5% | 38% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2015-10-26 Monday | +17.4% | +7.7% | +6.8% | +1.9% | +7.4% | +16.1% | +2.6% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2015-07-27 Monday | -9.0% | +1.7% | +4.2% | +2.7% | -8.6% | +10.4% | -14.7% | 28% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2015-04-22 Wednesday | -0.7% | +0.9% | -0.8% | -2.8% | +0.2% | +3.0% | -8.7% | 25% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-02-04 Wednesday | +3.7% | +4.0% | -0.6% | +4.2% | +10.9% | +13.7% | -4.3% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_MPWR.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.