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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: NET has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, August 06, 2026
Next confirmed NET earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.10 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -4.4% | 2 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.6% | 19 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | -0.3% | 26 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
27
Avg reaction
-0.1%
Median reaction
-1.8%
Avg |move|
10.2%
Up rate
48%
Avg drift T-20
+7.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 27 | +7.5% | +4.1% | 16.9 | -29.0% / +46.9% | 63% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 27 | +3.7% | +2.5% | 11.0 | -18.6% / +25.3% | 74% |
| Overnight gap | 27 | +1.1% | +2.6% | 10.7 | -25.5% / +21.9% | 59% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 27 | -0.1% | -1.8% | 12.6 | -23.6% / +27.1% | 48% |
| Follow-through +5d | 27 | +0.5% | -0.5% | 8.2 | -14.0% / +18.4% | 48% |
| Follow-through +20d | 27 | +2.8% | +6.7% | 17.1 | -23.9% / +35.8% | 56% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 27 | +16.6% | +15.5% | 14.8 | -11.3% / +46.3% | 89% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 27 | -13.6% | -11.8% | 11.6 | -35.7% / +4.7% | 15% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 1 | +5.2% | +5.2% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Thursday | 26 | -0.3% | -1.8% | 12.8 | 46% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 2 | +4.1% | +4.1% | 13.6 | 50% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +3.9% | +2.4% | 7.0 | 50% |
| Strong Up | 11 | -0.1% | -1.9% | 13.1 | 36% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -1.9% | +4.5% | 13.3 | 62% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | -4.4% | -4.4% | 11.2 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 19 | +1.6% | +3.3% | 12.0 | 53% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 4 | +0.7% | -0.2% | 12.8 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | -8.5% | -13.4% | 11.7 | 25% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 11 | +16.8% | +11.5% | 15.8 | 82% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 2 | +13.1% | +13.1% | 11.4 | 100% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +4.5% | +3.5% | 4.6 | 75% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +2.0% | -3.1% | 14.1 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | -20.5% | -20.5% | 8.5 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 12.0% | -23.6% | -15.4% | 1.96x |
| 2026-02-10 | 14.0% | +5.2% | +12.8% | 0.37x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 Thursday | 2 | +33.0% | -15.4% | -23.6% | +1.9% | +27.5% | +7.8% | -27.7% | 79% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
| 2026-02-10 Tuesday | 1 | -3.4% | +12.8% | +5.2% | +1.1% | +12.4% | +19.7% | -11.8% | 74% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | -0.9% | +6.3% | +13.8% | -10.8% | -21.0% | +16.9% | -18.6% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | +11.9% | -4.3% | -3.6% | +5.2% | +6.7% | +5.5% | -11.2% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2025-05-08 Thursday | 1 | +10.4% | +7.5% | +6.5% | +15.5% | +35.8% | +46.3% | +4.7% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -2% |
| 2025-02-06 Thursday | 1 | +24.5% | +8.5% | +17.8% | +5.9% | -23.9% | +25.3% | -14.5% | 43% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2024-11-07 Thursday | +3.5% | -7.5% | -4.6% | +0.8% | +23.8% | +18.9% | -8.8% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | -12.0% | +6.8% | +6.8% | -3.3% | +2.3% | +14.1% | -6.9% | 39% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +42% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -4.6% | -12.1% | -16.4% | -1.4% | -9.0% | -11.3% | -25.4% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2024-02-08 Thursday | +11.5% | +21.9% | +19.5% | -6.2% | -9.2% | +28.4% | +3.4% | 48% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +26% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -2.7% | +1.6% | +13.9% | -3.5% | +22.3% | +40.7% | +1.4% | 51% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +63% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +3.0% | +10.4% | +6.9% | -9.0% | -6.5% | +15.5% | -13.3% | 61% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2023-04-27 Thursday | +4.4% | -25.5% | -21.0% | -14.0% | +23.3% | +1.1% | -33.0% | 47% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +135% | |
| 2023-02-09 Thursday | 1 | +33.6% | +9.4% | +3.3% | +13.7% | -12.3% | +24.5% | -10.8% | 81% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% |
| 2022-11-03 Thursday | 2 | -17.4% | -6.7% | -18.4% | +15.0% | +17.7% | +14.0% | -25.8% | 87% | Sideways / High (>25) | +1829% |
| 2022-08-04 Thursday | +10.8% | +17.4% | +27.1% | +1.0% | -20.1% | +38.6% | -2.3% | 79% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2022-05-05 Thursday | 1 | -29.0% | -15.9% | -15.7% | -13.5% | -16.9% | -9.8% | -35.7% | 89% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +537% |
| 2022-02-10 Thursday | 2 | +1.8% | +3.0% | -9.5% | -1.1% | -15.4% | +6.4% | -25.1% | 99% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +100% |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +46.9% | +7.5% | -1.9% | -0.5% | -19.1% | +10.2% | -25.3% | 49% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2021-08-05 Thursday | +11.7% | -3.4% | -2.2% | +2.9% | +8.2% | +6.8% | -5.3% | 28% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +44% | |
| 2021-05-06 Thursday | 2 | -4.5% | +8.5% | +3.7% | -6.9% | +16.0% | +21.8% | -6.1% | 80% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -2% |
| 2021-02-11 Thursday | +10.7% | -5.4% | -5.8% | -4.4% | -11.2% | -4.1% | -33.2% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2020-11-05 Thursday | 1 | +33.6% | +9.9% | +11.2% | -0.5% | +20.0% | +34.2% | +0.6% | 85% | Sideways / High (>25) | +61% |
| 2020-08-06 Thursday | +4.1% | -0.8% | -3.1% | -3.0% | -9.6% | +9.5% | -14.1% | 54% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +49% | |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | 2 | +29.2% | -9.3% | -11.0% | +6.7% | +11.0% | +4.3% | -15.2% | 95% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +33% |
| 2020-02-13 Thursday | -4.1% | +2.2% | -1.8% | +18.4% | +7.4% | +38.5% | -4.7% | 30% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2019-11-07 Thursday | -2.7% | +2.6% | +1.4% | +3.4% | +14.6% | +24.6% | -1.9% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -9% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_NET.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.