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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: AXTI has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed AXTI earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.28 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -12.5% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.5% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +4.8% | 21 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+2.8%
Median reaction
+1.1%
Avg |move|
11.2%
Up rate
59%
Avg drift T-20
+4.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +4.3% | +3.5% | 18.9 | -33.7% / +68.0% | 57% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.6% | +0.8% | 8.5 | -12.5% / +41.3% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +2.3% | +2.4% | 8.4 | -14.8% / +38.6% | 59% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +2.8% | +1.1% | 16.1 | -31.0% / +69.3% | 59% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.4% | -1.2% | 8.9 | -17.2% / +30.4% | 41% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +5.5% | +3.9% | 24.1 | -52.8% / +95.7% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +23.4% | +12.3% | 33.8 | -14.8% / +147.4% | 87% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -11.2% | -9.2% | 15.6 | -54.4% / +38.2% | 17% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 1 | +8.0% | +8.0% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Monday n<10 | 2 | +7.9% | +7.9% | 5.3 | 100% |
| Thursday | 21 | +4.8% | +1.4% | 21.4 | 52% |
| Wednesday | 22 | +0.3% | +0.6% | 9.3 | 59% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 18 | +7.1% | +1.1% | 19.0 | 67% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +4.7% | +6.4% | 14.4 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +1.3% | +8.0% | 16.4 | 80% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 8.8 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -12.5% | -18.2% | 8.3 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 19 | +8.0% | +3.3% | 16.5 | 74% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +2.7% | +1.2% | 3.9 | 75% |
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | -1.5% | -4.0% | 15.7 | 43% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 18 | +11.8% | +11.7% | 19.5 | 72% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +7.5% | +8.6% | 19.6 | 75% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -5.4% | -7.7% | 12.0 | 25% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -6.7% | -9.2% | 10.5 | 40% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -9.6% | -6.5% | 5.9 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 18.4% | +21.2% | -0.5% | 1.15x |
| 2026-02-19 | 23.3% | +24.6% | +8.5% | 1.06x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | 9 | +68.0% | -0.5% | +21.2% | +12.9% | +7.5% | +80.7% | -1.5% | 179% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +78% |
| 2026-02-19 Thursday | 6 | +20.4% | +8.5% | +24.6% | +25.1% | +95.7% | +144.1% | +4.1% | 132% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | 3 | +55.7% | +12.7% | +8.6% | +11.6% | +34.6% | +62.3% | +6.6% | 137% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +75% |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | 1 | 0.0% | -3.9% | -7.7% | +7.3% | +52.1% | +41.8% | -11.1% | 83% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -12% |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 2 | -11.8% | -3.7% | +3.0% | -5.8% | +8.6% | +19.3% | -8.9% | 82% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -38% |
| 2025-02-20 Thursday | +0.4% | -14.8% | -31.0% | +4.4% | +8.9% | -14.8% | -43.7% | 53% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -138% | |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | +6.2% | -6.2% | -18.2% | 0.0% | +1.4% | -0.8% | -33.0% | 65% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | -4.4% | -7.3% | -18.5% | -7.1% | -0.4% | -4.0% | -30.1% | 81% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +57% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | 2 | -5.9% | +14.8% | +20.8% | -2.5% | +4.1% | +39.6% | +4.3% | 81% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +62% |
| 2024-02-22 Thursday | -18.6% | +38.6% | +69.3% | +11.1% | +39.9% | +147.4% | +38.2% | 48% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +47% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -18.0% | -1.9% | +9.8% | -8.0% | -10.2% | +12.7% | -5.4% | 36% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -5% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +9.6% | -3.4% | -1.4% | -8.9% | -11.0% | +2.4% | -25.7% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -2% | |
| 2023-04-27 Thursday | -18.7% | -4.2% | -14.7% | +4.1% | +25.1% | +11.8% | -21.1% | 39% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +41% | |
| 2023-02-16 Thursday | +11.9% | -12.2% | -17.3% | -7.8% | -22.9% | -12.2% | -41.0% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | 1 | -33.7% | +4.0% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +17.0% | +23.3% | -0.9% | 97% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +36% |
| 2022-07-28 Thursday | +21.4% | +14.0% | +24.9% | +6.0% | +10.5% | +41.6% | +12.0% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | -17.8% | +5.9% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -7.0% | +8.7% | -16.5% | 36% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -18% | |
| 2022-02-16 Wednesday | +1.5% | -0.4% | -4.0% | -4.7% | -6.7% | +0.2% | -21.8% | 53% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | +8.3% | -6.6% | -8.2% | +11.0% | +10.2% | +11.9% | -18.1% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -18% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | -17.0% | +7.2% | +8.0% | -1.8% | -7.6% | +13.2% | -9.2% | 44% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +3.2% | +3.9% | -7.6% | -9.0% | -4.5% | +3.9% | -26.0% | 64% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2021-02-18 Thursday | +4.0% | +7.5% | +27.1% | -17.2% | -17.4% | +31.0% | -16.4% | 61% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +67% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | -9.2% | +2.9% | +9.2% | -6.3% | +59.3% | +87.8% | +0.5% | 69% | Mild Down / High (>25) | -- | |
| 2020-07-22 Wednesday | +13.4% | +5.0% | +0.8% | -11.4% | -4.7% | +5.7% | -13.6% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +200% | |
| 2020-04-22 Wednesday | 4 | +45.5% | +5.0% | +0.5% | +30.4% | +36.8% | +47.8% | 0.0% | 97% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +75% |
| 2020-02-19 Wednesday | -9.6% | +2.2% | -1.5% | -12.8% | -52.8% | +3.5% | -54.4% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | 1 | -10.1% | +2.6% | +0.7% | -1.9% | +4.2% | +7.1% | -6.1% | 79% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +50% |
| 2019-07-24 Wednesday | +16.8% | +4.3% | +4.3% | -1.8% | -17.7% | +7.2% | -16.1% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2019-04-24 Wednesday | +7.5% | +8.7% | +14.6% | +5.2% | -16.4% | +29.5% | -6.8% | 49% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | +14.5% | -5.6% | -8.7% | +3.9% | +8.5% | +2.4% | -12.7% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -300% | |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -6.5% | -0.5% | -18.2% | +8.3% | +3.7% | +0.3% | -21.9% | 56% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -- | |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | 1 | +13.7% | +3.2% | +0.6% | -5.0% | -7.5% | +4.4% | -11.4% | 66% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +25% |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | -17.4% | +5.0% | +6.7% | +2.4% | +4.7% | +14.3% | -2.5% | 48% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-02-21 Wednesday | -9.6% | -8.8% | -17.6% | +6.9% | +12.1% | -1.4% | -18.2% | 44% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2017-10-25 Wednesday | -2.2% | 0.0% | +5.6% | -6.4% | +10.1% | +20.8% | -3.9% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +36% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | +19.7% | +6.6% | +15.8% | -4.5% | -14.2% | +25.0% | -7.2% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-04-26 Wednesday | +9.8% | +7.3% | +13.8% | -3.6% | -4.3% | +27.3% | +3.2% | 42% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +200% | |
| 2017-02-22 Wednesday | +13.1% | +2.2% | +10.1% | -1.3% | -32.9% | +25.4% | -26.1% | 59% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2016-10-26 Wednesday | +14.8% | -6.1% | -9.8% | -3.3% | -1.4% | -4.0% | -20.4% | 46% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +110% | |
| 2016-07-27 Wednesday | +16.9% | +9.3% | +3.3% | -1.1% | +16.4% | +22.4% | -1.1% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +173% | |
| 2016-05-02 Monday | +3.9% | +7.5% | +13.2% | +4.3% | +18.7% | +47.9% | +5.7% | 32% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2016-02-24 Wednesday | +11.4% | +0.7% | -4.0% | -0.8% | -5.3% | +7.0% | -9.2% | 44% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -100% | |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | +13.0% | +2.8% | +1.4% | +4.5% | +10.0% | +13.8% | -2.3% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2015-07-30 Thursday | -3.6% | 0.0% | -1.3% | -8.9% | -8.9% | +2.5% | -16.8% | 21% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -7.8% | -1.3% | -2.1% | -1.7% | +8.6% | +10.1% | -6.7% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2015-02-23 Monday | -4.6% | +1.1% | +2.6% | +1.5% | -0.4% | +6.0% | -4.1% | 35% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +33% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_AXTI.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.