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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ADP has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed ADP earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.13 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -0.3% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.2% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | 0.0% | 40 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.1%
Median reaction
+0.3%
Avg |move|
1.2%
Up rate
54%
Avg drift T-20
+1.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.3% | +1.1% | 6.8 | -19.8% / +17.6% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.1% | +0.9% | 5.0 | -12.2% / +11.9% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 0.7 | -2.1% / +2.5% | 33% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.1% | +0.3% | 1.4 | -3.1% / +2.5% | 54% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.3% | +0.3% | 2.6 | -5.7% / +5.8% | 57% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.9% | +1.9% | 5.3 | -11.2% / +11.8% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +5.2% | +5.3% | 3.5 | -0.8% / +14.3% | 96% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -4.1% | -3.0% | 4.5 | -19.8% / +0.2% | 2% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | 40 | 0.0% | +0.4% | 1.3 | 58% |
| Thursday n<10 | 6 | -0.5% | -0.6% | 1.7 | 33% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +0.8% | +1.1% | 1.2 | 75% |
| Sideways | 13 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 1.0 | 54% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 1.6 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -0.3% | +0.1% | 1.2 | 50% |
| Strong Up | 17 | -0.6% | -0.5% | 1.5 | 47% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 0.8 | 67% |
| Low (<15) | 14 | -0.1% | +0.5% | 1.5 | 57% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 1.4 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +6.1% | +6.2% | 5.0 | 100% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +4.2% | +1.8% | 6.9 | 62% |
| Strong Up | 17 | +2.0% | +3.3% | 6.4 | 71% |
| Sideways | 13 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 4.4 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -5.9% | -2.5% | 8.3 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 3.3% | -1.4% | -1.1% | 0.44x |
| 2026-01-28 | 2.1% | -1.9% | -0.5% | 0.90x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +5.8% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -2.2% | +3.7% | +5.8% | -4.9% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2026-01-28 Wednesday | -3.4% | -0.5% | -1.9% | -4.6% | -11.2% | +0.7% | -18.9% | 19% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | -10.4% | +0.4% | +0.1% | -0.8% | -2.8% | +1.8% | -5.4% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +0.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -2.5% | -2.1% | +1.4% | -4.0% | 13% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | -1.9% | -0.5% | -0.6% | +2.2% | +8.5% | +9.1% | -2.3% | 39% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | +1.5% | +1.0% | +0.9% | +1.6% | +2.6% | +4.9% | +0.2% | 14% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | +3.3% | -0.4% | -1.2% | +5.5% | +6.1% | +5.8% | -2.3% | 10% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +11.0% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -0.9% | +4.4% | +5.4% | -2.3% | 13% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | +0.9% | -0.5% | -2.1% | +0.4% | -0.5% | +3.0% | -3.2% | 16% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | +5.3% | -0.3% | +0.5% | +1.3% | +1.6% | +4.4% | -1.6% | 12% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | -10.0% | -0.0% | +0.2% | -3.9% | +5.6% | +7.1% | -5.9% | 36% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | +17.6% | +0.5% | -1.0% | -1.4% | +0.0% | +1.3% | -3.3% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | -1.6% | +0.6% | +2.5% | -0.1% | -1.0% | +5.6% | -0.8% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-01-25 Wednesday | -5.4% | -0.5% | -1.1% | +0.6% | -1.2% | +0.5% | -4.2% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +1.4% | +0.1% | -0.1% | +1.1% | +11.8% | +12.3% | -1.3% | 28% | Sideways / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | +9.3% | +0.4% | +2.3% | +2.0% | +7.0% | +11.8% | -0.4% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | +1.4% | +0.5% | +0.7% | -0.3% | -6.9% | +1.6% | -10.7% | 25% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-01-26 Wednesday | -19.8% | +0.4% | -0.5% | +5.8% | +1.9% | +7.0% | -2.6% | 33% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | +11.2% | +0.2% | +0.5% | +1.3% | +5.1% | +8.7% | -0.4% | 14% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | +4.7% | +0.5% | +0.9% | +1.5% | -0.3% | +5.0% | 0.0% | 13% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | -0.7% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +6.3% | -0.9% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2021-01-27 Wednesday | -6.2% | +2.5% | +0.7% | +0.1% | +5.3% | +7.2% | -0.9% | 22% | Sideways / High (>25) | +18% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +11.2% | -0.3% | +2.0% | +4.0% | +10.0% | +14.3% | -1.0% | 28% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +44% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | -7.9% | -2.1% | -3.1% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +4.2% | -5.3% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | +6.7% | -0.9% | +0.6% | -1.4% | -1.3% | +2.7% | -10.4% | 52% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2020-01-29 Wednesday | +0.8% | -1.2% | +2.3% | +2.1% | -10.0% | +6.6% | -7.9% | 19% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +4.8% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -1.6% | +5.7% | +5.2% | -4.4% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +2.8% | -0.8% | -1.3% | +0.1% | +1.8% | +2.5% | -4.7% | 13% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | -2.5% | -0.0% | +0.6% | +0.5% | +1.6% | +4.2% | -1.1% | 19% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2019-01-30 Wednesday | +6.3% | -0.4% | +0.3% | +4.1% | +9.4% | +10.9% | -0.9% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -5.0% | -0.2% | -2.2% | +5.2% | +3.5% | +3.2% | -3.5% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | -0.8% | -0.8% | +0.4% | +3.5% | +9.9% | +10.6% | -1.6% | 15% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +4.6% | -0.3% | +0.8% | +3.2% | +5.6% | +8.2% | -1.2% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2018-01-31 Wednesday | +6.6% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -5.7% | -5.5% | -0.8% | -13.0% | 16% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2017-11-02 Thursday | +0.7% | +0.2% | -1.8% | -0.2% | +1.4% | +0.9% | -4.3% | 11% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +12.6% | -0.3% | +1.5% | -4.8% | -10.9% | +5.3% | -11.1% | 35% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | -3.9% | +0.8% | +1.6% | -2.5% | +4.3% | +6.0% | -1.7% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2017-02-01 Wednesday | -8.0% | -0.0% | +1.1% | +0.3% | +8.1% | +9.9% | -0.2% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | +2.7% | -0.0% | -0.7% | +1.8% | +7.2% | +8.4% | -2.7% | 16% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +2.9% | -0.4% | -3.0% | -0.6% | +0.9% | -0.4% | -4.6% | 18% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.7% | -2.2% | -0.8% | +0.6% | -5.3% | 10% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2016-02-03 Wednesday | -0.1% | -0.1% | +0.8% | -2.4% | +3.4% | +5.6% | -3.9% | 25% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | +9.4% | -0.0% | +0.5% | -1.6% | -2.2% | +0.8% | -3.3% | 17% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2015-07-30 Thursday | -0.9% | +0.1% | -0.5% | +0.7% | -2.2% | +6.3% | -19.8% | 17% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -7% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -0.8% | -0.0% | +1.8% | +0.3% | -0.6% | +4.6% | -0.0% | 13% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2015-02-04 Wednesday | +4.9% | -0.2% | +0.7% | -0.4% | -0.5% | +4.2% | -1.1% | 19% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ADP.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.