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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: DFIN has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed DFIN earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.32 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.9% | 2 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.3% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | -0.8% | 10 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
39
Avg reaction
-0.4%
Median reaction
-0.9%
Avg |move|
4.5%
Up rate
46%
Avg drift T-20
+2.1%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 39 | +2.1% | -1.4% | 17.1 | -21.3% / +63.5% | 44% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 39 | -2.2% | -3.5% | 12.2 | -24.1% / +39.7% | 41% |
| Overnight gap | 39 | -0.0% | -0.2% | 1.8 | -5.8% / +4.3% | 38% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 39 | -0.4% | -0.9% | 5.7 | -14.9% / +12.6% | 46% |
| Follow-through +5d | 39 | -0.1% | +0.3% | 5.6 | -18.3% / +10.8% | 51% |
| Follow-through +20d | 39 | +0.2% | +2.6% | 13.0 | -51.6% / +22.0% | 62% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 39 | +8.8% | +8.0% | 7.3 | -1.1% / +26.3% | 90% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 39 | -9.4% | -6.4% | 10.4 | -56.0% / +1.4% | 10% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 8 | +1.1% | +0.3% | 5.9 | 50% |
| Wednesday | 21 | -0.8% | -0.9% | 6.1 | 43% |
| Thursday | 10 | -0.8% | -1.3% | 4.2 | 50% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 12 | +1.5% | +0.9% | 3.0 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | -0.3% | -1.0% | 3.7 | 50% |
| Sideways | 13 | -1.1% | -2.8% | 7.4 | 38% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | -1.2% | -3.3% | 6.0 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | -3.9% | -3.9% | 0.3 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | +0.3% | +0.6% | 6.4 | 52% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 7 | -1.0% | -2.9% | 5.1 | 43% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 9 | -1.7% | -0.9% | 3.1 | 33% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 12 | +7.2% | -1.5% | 24.1 | 33% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +5.1% | +3.7% | 14.8 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +1.6% | -1.0% | 6.3 | 50% |
| Sideways | 13 | -3.6% | -2.8% | 11.1 | 46% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 2 | -3.6% | -3.6% | 7.0 | 50% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 14.9% | +0.6% | -1.6% | 0.04x |
| 2026-02-17 | 14.4% | +12.6% | +1.9% | 0.88x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | 1 | -13.0% | -1.6% | +0.6% | -5.6% | -10.0% | +7.7% | -13.1% | 65% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
| 2026-02-17 Tuesday | 1 | -20.6% | +1.9% | +12.6% | -0.7% | -6.8% | +22.8% | +0.2% | 69% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +71% |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | 1 | -14.4% | -0.4% | +2.7% | +1.4% | +6.5% | +10.9% | -0.6% | 65% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +50% |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | 1 | -15.3% | +0.7% | -3.6% | +2.9% | +11.0% | +10.4% | -5.4% | 69% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 1 | +9.7% | +0.7% | +5.2% | +3.6% | +8.5% | +15.9% | -0.3% | 56% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +78% |
| 2025-02-18 Tuesday | 1 | -17.9% | 0.0% | -4.8% | +3.0% | -8.2% | +0.5% | -18.0% | 94% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -18% |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | -11.0% | -0.9% | -3.2% | +10.5% | +6.7% | +12.0% | -4.0% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -36% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +12.3% | -0.4% | -4.3% | -5.0% | +1.6% | -0.3% | -11.4% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -2.1% | +1.1% | +4.8% | +0.5% | -4.2% | +9.6% | -0.6% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2024-02-20 Tuesday | -1.4% | -0.9% | +1.8% | +0.3% | -1.9% | +6.0% | -2.4% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | +0.1% | +1.9% | +1.4% | -2.6% | +6.5% | +8.9% | -3.8% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +8.8% | -0.3% | -3.4% | +2.1% | +3.9% | +1.0% | -6.4% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | +8.1% | -1.6% | -3.8% | +5.4% | +3.6% | +5.6% | -6.1% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2023-02-21 Tuesday | 1 | -9.5% | +1.4% | +7.7% | -0.1% | -9.9% | +11.3% | -9.2% | 85% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -14% |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | 1 | -8.5% | -2.6% | -2.9% | +3.2% | +12.7% | +12.1% | -4.3% | 72% | Sideways / High (>25) | -18% |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | 1 | +31.4% | +1.5% | +6.6% | +3.9% | +0.7% | +12.5% | +1.4% | 62% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +73% |
| 2022-05-05 Thursday | 1 | -10.6% | +0.0% | -4.2% | +6.5% | +17.6% | +16.2% | -10.6% | 56% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -13% |
| 2022-02-22 Tuesday | -11.0% | -0.8% | -5.4% | -2.7% | +11.4% | +8.0% | -11.1% | 51% | Sideways / High (>25) | +0% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +18.2% | +3.0% | +7.0% | +10.8% | +2.4% | +22.6% | +1.2% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +73% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | -2.8% | +4.3% | +10.8% | -5.3% | -4.9% | +13.1% | -3.4% | 40% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +48% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | +4.9% | -5.8% | -14.9% | -3.4% | +22.0% | +4.3% | -18.0% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +79% | |
| 2021-02-25 Thursday | +34.5% | +3.1% | +8.5% | +3.8% | +2.6% | +26.3% | +0.9% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +136% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -3.6% | +2.7% | +2.9% | -0.7% | +16.5% | +21.0% | -2.2% | 42% | Sideways / High (>25) | +165% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | 1 | +38.1% | -0.9% | +3.6% | -5.8% | -5.2% | +9.1% | -10.2% | 76% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +222% |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | 3 | +63.5% | +1.7% | +1.2% | -18.3% | +19.9% | +25.6% | -23.7% | 92% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +227% |
| 2020-02-26 Wednesday | -1.4% | -3.6% | -7.3% | +2.1% | -51.6% | -1.1% | -56.0% | 56% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +129% | |
| 2019-11-05 Tuesday | 1 | -5.8% | -0.5% | 0.0% | +3.1% | +4.6% | +9.0% | -2.4% | 68% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -45% |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +2.4% | -1.8% | -2.8% | -8.9% | -19.1% | -0.4% | -23.5% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +1.9% | +0.5% | +2.0% | -3.9% | -23.2% | +3.0% | -22.2% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -33% | |
| 2019-02-27 Wednesday | 1 | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.9% | +0.3% | +5.1% | +6.7% | -3.1% | 49% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -141% |
| 2018-11-07 Wednesday | 1 | +3.4% | -0.6% | -3.5% | -2.7% | -5.4% | +1.2% | -11.8% | 54% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +35% |
| 2018-08-02 Thursday | +12.8% | -0.8% | -7.3% | -0.9% | +10.8% | +4.4% | -11.7% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +12.2% | -0.1% | -10.3% | -1.6% | -11.1% | -0.1% | -20.4% | 19% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2018-02-28 Wednesday | 1 | -21.3% | 0.0% | -2.1% | +8.7% | +0.8% | +8.6% | -4.7% | 55% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -10% |
| 2017-11-02 Thursday | -12.2% | -1.3% | +0.1% | -4.2% | +4.1% | +6.6% | -6.7% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | -1.6% | -0.2% | -0.9% | -5.5% | -3.4% | +1.4% | -10.8% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -5% | |
| 2017-05-04 Thursday | +15.3% | -0.5% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +4.9% | +7.9% | -2.5% | 29% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +45% | |
| 2017-02-28 Tuesday | 1 | -3.8% | +0.7% | -3.4% | -7.9% | -13.8% | +1.2% | -18.4% | 50% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -28% |
| 2016-11-09 Wednesday | -8.8% | -0.1% | -6.3% | +7.1% | +2.6% | +3.6% | -12.6% | 48% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +115% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_DFIN.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.