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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: FFIV has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, July 27, 2026
Next confirmed FFIV earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.05 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.9% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.2% | 20 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +1.8% | 13 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.2%
Median reaction
+0.6%
Avg |move|
5.8%
Up rate
52%
Avg drift T-20
+0.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +0.5% | +1.0% | 6.8 | -17.3% / +18.8% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.5% | +0.6% | 3.1 | -5.2% / +6.7% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.3% | +0.3% | 7.6 | -13.7% / +13.8% | 52% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.2% | +0.6% | 6.8 | -12.8% / +13.0% | 52% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.0% | +0.4% | 3.3 | -6.9% / +7.1% | 52% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.5% | +0.9% | 6.8 | -13.6% / +19.0% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +7.3% | +7.6% | 9.3 | -8.0% / +32.7% | 76% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -5.0% | -3.6% | 7.7 | -22.9% / +6.7% | 35% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 13 | +1.8% | +3.2% | 7.3 | 62% |
| Wednesday | 22 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 5.6 | 50% |
| Tuesday | 11 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 7.9 | 45% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +5.1% | +7.8% | 7.6 | 80% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +0.7% | +1.1% | 5.4 | 55% |
| Strong Up | 16 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 6.3 | 50% |
| Sideways | 10 | -0.6% | +0.4% | 6.8 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -3.9% | -4.5% | 7.3 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 20 | +1.2% | +1.6% | 7.0 | 55% |
| Low (<15) | 18 | -0.3% | +0.6% | 6.0 | 56% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 8 | -1.0% | -0.7% | 7.5 | 38% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +4.0% | +3.2% | 4.8 | 81% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.5% | +3.1% | 6.3 | 60% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +0.4% | -1.3% | 7.8 | 45% |
| Sideways | 10 | -0.5% | +0.3% | 3.2 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -10.7% | -8.9% | 3.8 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 12.6% | +8.0% | +3.2% | 0.63x |
| 2026-01-27 | 14.2% | +8.1% | +10.4% | 0.57x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | +8.6% | +3.2% | +8.0% | +3.6% | +18.3% | +31.5% | +2.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2026-01-27 Tuesday | +2.8% | +10.4% | +8.1% | -6.0% | -4.7% | +12.4% | -4.0% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2025-10-27 Monday | 1 | -10.0% | -9.7% | -7.9% | -6.9% | -11.8% | -4.9% | -22.9% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +1.0% | +8.0% | +4.8% | +2.5% | +1.4% | +11.7% | +0.8% | 17% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2025-04-28 Monday | +0.5% | -1.9% | -0.9% | +1.7% | +9.1% | +9.5% | -3.6% | 54% | Sideways / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2025-01-28 Tuesday | +4.9% | +13.8% | +11.4% | -0.2% | -1.9% | +16.1% | +2.8% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-10-28 Monday | -0.8% | +10.8% | +10.1% | -3.8% | +3.5% | +14.7% | +5.1% | 13% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | +3.1% | +12.4% | +13.0% | -6.7% | -0.6% | +15.9% | +4.1% | 21% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | -4.1% | -10.9% | -9.2% | +2.0% | +1.8% | -3.4% | -12.7% | 21% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2024-01-29 Monday | +3.2% | +5.2% | +0.8% | -1.2% | -0.8% | +7.6% | -3.2% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2023-10-24 Tuesday | -4.7% | -0.8% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +9.4% | +12.4% | -1.5% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2023-07-24 Monday | +4.0% | +9.8% | +5.8% | -0.5% | -1.8% | +11.8% | +2.1% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2023-04-19 Wednesday | -5.4% | -6.6% | -2.1% | -2.6% | +3.7% | +2.1% | -7.3% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2023-01-24 Tuesday | +4.6% | -5.3% | -0.7% | +1.5% | -1.8% | +9.2% | -5.4% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-10-25 Tuesday | +5.0% | -8.2% | -7.2% | +1.5% | +10.3% | +2.5% | -12.9% | 37% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2022-07-25 Monday | -2.6% | +7.4% | +3.2% | +3.9% | +4.2% | +12.9% | +1.9% | 29% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | -8.6% | -10.9% | -12.8% | +2.5% | -6.8% | -8.0% | -21.8% | 30% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-01-25 Tuesday | -9.1% | -11.8% | -8.4% | +1.7% | -3.9% | -4.3% | -14.8% | 32% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +1.1% | +5.8% | +5.9% | +3.1% | +6.9% | +17.3% | +2.7% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-07-26 Monday | +1.5% | +7.2% | +6.2% | +1.0% | -0.7% | +11.9% | +1.6% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | -1.6% | -7.5% | -9.1% | -2.9% | -0.9% | -6.6% | -15.1% | 17% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-01-26 Tuesday | +18.8% | -2.4% | -3.5% | -3.5% | -5.8% | +2.5% | -12.5% | 21% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2020-10-26 Monday | +1.8% | +5.1% | +8.5% | -3.7% | +19.0% | +32.7% | +3.1% | 22% | Sideways / High (>25) | +2% | |
| 2020-07-27 Monday | +7.9% | -4.3% | -8.8% | +0.8% | -1.3% | -3.9% | -11.9% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2020-04-27 Monday | +18.2% | +12.9% | +7.6% | -3.9% | -1.2% | +17.3% | +0.9% | 41% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +12% | |
| 2020-01-27 Monday | -4.6% | -5.8% | -5.0% | -3.4% | +0.6% | +0.6% | -8.7% | 17% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2019-10-23 Wednesday | -1.3% | +8.4% | +5.5% | -1.5% | -1.6% | +10.6% | +1.6% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-07-24 Wednesday | +5.4% | -1.8% | -0.7% | -0.7% | -12.4% | +3.6% | -15.8% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-04-24 Wednesday | +7.5% | -4.7% | -1.1% | -6.3% | -13.6% | +2.9% | -16.0% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-01-23 Wednesday | +3.2% | -4.9% | -2.2% | +2.3% | +8.8% | +7.6% | -5.4% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2018-10-24 Wednesday | -17.3% | +8.2% | +6.1% | +2.2% | -1.7% | +17.6% | +2.1% | 32% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | +1.6% | +2.2% | +1.1% | -3.7% | +4.4% | +5.6% | -3.7% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | +8.3% | +1.6% | +0.9% | +4.6% | +10.2% | +12.3% | -0.9% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2018-01-24 Wednesday | +7.4% | +1.5% | -5.1% | +7.1% | +6.6% | +3.1% | -6.3% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2017-10-25 Wednesday | -1.4% | +0.2% | +4.0% | -2.8% | -1.6% | +6.8% | -0.5% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | +0.3% | -7.8% | -7.2% | +0.1% | -2.6% | -4.3% | -9.8% | 18% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +0% | |
| 2017-04-26 Wednesday | -6.7% | -8.2% | -7.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -3.9% | -9.5% | 16% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2017-01-25 Wednesday | +0.2% | -4.4% | -8.2% | -1.0% | +7.8% | -0.1% | -10.4% | 12% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-10-26 Wednesday | -3.6% | +8.7% | +9.6% | +3.3% | +9.9% | +20.7% | +6.7% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2016-07-20 Wednesday | +1.8% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +1.2% | +4.7% | -0.8% | 37% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2016-04-20 Wednesday | -6.9% | +3.8% | +5.5% | +4.2% | +3.0% | +10.6% | +2.2% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-01-20 Wednesday | -7.8% | +5.0% | -0.6% | +6.5% | +2.6% | +7.7% | -4.4% | 21% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | +4.8% | -11.0% | -9.3% | +0.8% | -6.6% | -5.8% | -17.3% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-07-22 Wednesday | -7.1% | +8.3% | +7.8% | +3.8% | +4.0% | +14.1% | +6.4% | 20% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-04-22 Wednesday | +4.7% | -2.2% | +1.6% | +1.1% | +3.7% | +6.4% | -2.4% | 22% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2015-01-21 Wednesday | -5.1% | -13.7% | -10.0% | -0.5% | +4.3% | -5.7% | -13.8% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_FFIV.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.