Tour
396
Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: MSTR has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed MSTR earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.17 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +1.6% | 6 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.0% | 25 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | -0.3% | 19 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.2%
Median reaction
-0.5%
Avg |move|
6.5%
Up rate
43%
Avg drift T-20
+5.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +5.9% | +2.7% | 23.0 | -33.9% / +77.0% | 65% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.0% | -0.1% | 7.7 | -25.3% / +19.1% | 48% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.5% | +0.5% | 6.1 | -10.1% / +17.6% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.2% | -0.5% | 8.9 | -26.0% / +26.1% | 43% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.7% | +0.4% | 11.2 | -38.5% / +35.0% | 52% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.6% | -1.9% | 28.9 | -35.0% / +145.3% | 41% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +19.6% | +8.3% | 34.6 | -9.9% / +173.1% | 89% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -12.6% | -9.2% | 14.2 | -61.0% / +7.4% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday n<10 | 5 | +3.1% | -1.1% | 8.1 | 40% |
| Tuesday | 17 | +1.0% | -0.0% | 6.7 | 47% |
| Thursday | 19 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 9.6 | 42% |
| Monday n<10 | 5 | -3.2% | -4.1% | 11.9 | 40% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +15.3% | +13.4% | 8.2 | 100% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | +1.6% | -2.0% | 8.2 | 33% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +0.6% | +5.9% | 10.5 | 55% |
| Strong Up | 14 | -0.6% | -0.1% | 6.1 | 43% |
| Sideways | 12 | -3.7% | -3.8% | 5.9 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 25 | +2.0% | -0.0% | 8.8 | 48% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +0.9% | +1.6% | 5.4 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | -3.1% | -2.4% | 9.2 | 33% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +18.0% | +5.5% | 26.6 | 71% |
| Sideways | 12 | +8.0% | +3.2% | 18.2 | 83% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +1.4% | +4.7% | 12.0 | 64% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | +0.6% | +2.5% | 27.4 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -15.2% | -15.8% | 16.4 | 17% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 7.8% | -0.0% | -1.2% | 0.01x |
| 2026-02-05 | 12.6% | +26.1% | +7.4% | 2.08x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | 1 | +51.1% | -1.2% | -0.0% | -1.3% | -32.3% | +5.4% | -33.1% | 65% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -150% |
| 2026-02-05 Thursday | 1 | -33.9% | +7.4% | +26.1% | -8.8% | -1.0% | +39.8% | +7.2% | 93% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -105% |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | -27.8% | +6.0% | +5.9% | -12.0% | -34.3% | +8.5% | -34.8% | 60% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -13% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | -0.1% | -2.9% | -8.8% | +9.7% | -7.6% | +3.1% | -19.0% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +382% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 3 | +22.1% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +5.1% | -6.4% | +12.8% | -6.0% | 118% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -14891% |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | 1 | -11.2% | +0.6% | -3.3% | +0.4% | -6.6% | +2.4% | -31.1% | 62% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -5433% |
| 2024-10-30 Wednesday | 3 | +50.2% | +1.5% | -1.1% | +5.4% | +59.0% | +119.6% | -10.7% | 88% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -1298% |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | 2 | +16.1% | -1.7% | -4.2% | -6.1% | -8.4% | +5.3% | -32.3% | 90% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -419% |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | 2 | -21.0% | -7.3% | -17.6% | +19.1% | +57.3% | +34.6% | -21.9% | 90% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -307% |
| 2024-02-06 Tuesday | -16.7% | +0.3% | +2.0% | +35.0% | +145.3% | +173.1% | -6.1% | 58% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +875% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | 1 | +33.2% | +3.2% | +6.3% | +4.6% | +9.8% | +25.4% | -0.6% | 60% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -1670% |
| 2023-08-01 Tuesday | 2 | +15.1% | 0.0% | -6.4% | -4.4% | -6.3% | +0.5% | -25.9% | 51% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +392% |
| 2023-05-01 Monday | +5.2% | +0.9% | +6.7% | -10.2% | -8.8% | +8.3% | -13.3% | 70% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2564% | |
| 2023-02-02 Thursday | 1 | +77.0% | -4.5% | -2.5% | -12.5% | -13.3% | +7.8% | -19.0% | 76% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -109750% |
| 2022-11-01 Tuesday | 2 | +3.4% | +0.7% | -3.5% | -14.7% | -20.2% | +8.4% | -40.8% | 75% | Sideways / High (>25) | -4880% |
| 2022-08-02 Tuesday | 5 | +48.3% | +2.0% | +12.7% | +1.8% | -23.4% | +30.1% | -15.5% | 113% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -586% |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | 1 | -31.5% | +1.9% | +6.7% | -38.5% | -35.0% | +7.3% | -61.0% | 76% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -397% |
| 2022-02-01 Tuesday | 1 | -33.2% | -1.7% | -6.5% | +22.0% | +31.7% | +26.8% | -11.0% | 94% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -1255% |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | +24.0% | +1.0% | -0.3% | +11.9% | -7.3% | +24.3% | -8.7% | 48% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -733% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | 2 | -5.9% | -1.5% | +0.2% | +14.3% | +10.8% | +27.7% | -3.2% | 105% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -3657% |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | 2 | -3.5% | -1.2% | +0.3% | -7.3% | -24.9% | +3.0% | -37.2% | 104% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -1033% |
| 2021-01-28 Thursday | 4 | +58.0% | +17.6% | +6.7% | +24.0% | +21.6% | +127.4% | +1.3% | 115% | Sideways / High (>25) | -83% |
| 2020-10-27 Tuesday | +17.3% | +2.5% | -7.7% | +6.0% | +52.5% | +41.7% | -9.1% | 41% | Sideways / High (>25) | -477% | |
| 2020-07-28 Tuesday | -0.6% | +5.2% | +4.2% | +0.5% | +19.7% | +28.8% | +0.7% | 21% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -12% | |
| 2020-04-28 Tuesday | +16.9% | +0.9% | -1.1% | -5.2% | -1.2% | +0.9% | -14.9% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -63% | |
| 2020-01-28 Tuesday | -0.5% | +9.0% | +6.0% | -0.5% | -8.2% | +14.6% | -2.7% | 14% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +43% | |
| 2019-10-29 Tuesday | +0.2% | +2.9% | +4.6% | +1.0% | -0.7% | +8.3% | +1.4% | 12% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +42% | |
| 2019-07-30 Tuesday | 1 | -12.0% | +3.1% | +11.0% | -1.9% | +1.5% | +16.5% | +3.1% | 39% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1423% |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | +1.6% | -4.8% | -5.8% | -1.5% | -5.2% | -0.0% | -11.2% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -463% | |
| 2019-01-29 Tuesday | +9.0% | -7.4% | -7.9% | +3.8% | +10.8% | +6.6% | -9.3% | 16% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -70% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -12.3% | -2.1% | -0.6% | +2.6% | +1.5% | +5.6% | -2.4% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +201% | |
| 2018-07-26 Thursday | +9.8% | +0.8% | -6.0% | +5.7% | +9.8% | +4.7% | -8.1% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +173% | |
| 2018-04-26 Thursday | +3.6% | -5.5% | -4.2% | +1.9% | +3.4% | +1.4% | -6.5% | 18% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -56% | |
| 2018-01-25 Thursday | +4.8% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +0.1% | +1.8% | -6.4% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -300% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +10.4% | +0.2% | -0.1% | -4.9% | -2.4% | +1.7% | -8.0% | 10% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +68% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +0.2% | -10.1% | -26.0% | -4.6% | -10.2% | -9.9% | -34.8% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -41% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | +2.5% | -1.6% | -1.2% | -0.5% | -4.6% | +1.1% | -6.5% | 13% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -14% | |
| 2017-01-31 Tuesday | +2.0% | -1.5% | -2.4% | -4.3% | -1.4% | -1.1% | -7.8% | 15% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | +4.7% | +9.5% | +10.3% | -1.3% | +3.3% | +15.1% | +7.4% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% | |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +6.2% | -7.5% | -5.5% | -6.0% | -3.8% | -5.4% | -12.5% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -19% | |
| 2016-04-27 Wednesday | +5.0% | -9.4% | -3.9% | -1.4% | +2.5% | +1.2% | -10.4% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -32% | |
| 2016-01-27 Wednesday | -19.3% | +12.9% | +17.5% | +2.5% | -5.5% | +23.7% | +2.2% | 46% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +58% | |
| 2015-10-26 Monday | +0.5% | -9.3% | -14.3% | +4.7% | +3.2% | -7.4% | -16.3% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2015-07-27 Monday | +2.5% | +15.1% | +13.4% | +0.7% | -3.0% | +27.1% | +3.4% | 23% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +42% | |
| 2015-04-28 Tuesday | -0.7% | +6.1% | +10.2% | -4.3% | -6.3% | +16.6% | +0.3% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +87% | |
| 2015-01-26 Monday | +2.9% | -9.4% | -4.1% | +2.2% | +9.8% | +8.5% | -9.4% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +62% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_MSTR.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.