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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: QCOM has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed QCOM earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.32 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.1% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.7% | 29 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -0.8% | 45 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.7%
Median reaction
-1.1%
Avg |move|
5.8%
Up rate
35%
Avg drift T-20
+1.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.9% | +0.7% | 11.4 | -18.4% / +48.7% | 57% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.8% | +0.5% | 4.6 | -12.6% / +14.7% | 63% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.5% | -2.1% | 6.0 | -10.7% / +13.1% | 41% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.7% | -1.1% | 7.2 | -15.2% / +15.2% | 35% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 4.2 | -7.2% / +19.4% | 65% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.0% | +1.9% | 10.7 | -23.6% / +35.5% | 59% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.1% | +4.3% | 12.9 | -6.5% / +65.4% | 80% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.1% | -8.3% | 8.2 | -25.0% / +10.7% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 1 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.0 | 0% |
| Wednesday | 45 | -0.8% | -1.3% | 7.3 | 36% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 13 | +3.3% | +2.6% | 7.4 | 54% |
| Sideways | 11 | -1.7% | -1.3% | 6.3 | 27% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | -1.8% | -1.8% | 6.9 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -3.1% | -4.8% | 6.6 | 20% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | -3.2% | -2.7% | 5.8 | 11% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +3.6% | +4.7% | 8.1 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 13 | +0.1% | -0.8% | 4.3 | 46% |
| Medium (15-25) | 29 | -1.7% | -3.6% | 7.8 | 28% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 13 | +9.4% | +5.9% | 7.3 | 92% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 9 | +3.1% | +2.2% | 4.4 | 78% |
| Sideways | 11 | +1.2% | -0.1% | 16.4 | 36% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -3.0% | -4.1% | 8.5 | 40% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 8 | -7.3% | -6.5% | 5.2 | 12% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 9.0% | +15.1% | +10.3% | 1.67x |
| 2026-02-04 | 6.2% | -8.5% | -10.7% | 1.36x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | 1 | +21.1% | +10.3% | +15.1% | +7.2% | +35.5% | +65.4% | +4.8% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2026-02-04 Wednesday | -18.4% | -10.7% | -8.5% | +3.5% | +1.2% | -1.3% | -10.8% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-11-05 Wednesday | 1 | +7.1% | -1.1% | -3.6% | +2.0% | +1.2% | -0.5% | -11.6% | 57% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -0.2% | -3.7% | -7.7% | -0.6% | +8.9% | +0.6% | -9.4% | 21% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 1 | -3.0% | -6.5% | -8.9% | +6.7% | +9.7% | +5.2% | -9.2% | 79% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | +10.0% | -4.6% | -3.7% | +0.6% | -7.3% | +0.4% | -13.9% | 22% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-11-06 Wednesday | +1.6% | +4.2% | -0.1% | -7.2% | -6.8% | +5.3% | -11.6% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | -9.6% | -5.1% | -9.4% | -4.8% | +4.8% | -2.2% | -16.3% | 63% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -5.6% | +6.9% | +9.7% | +0.2% | +14.2% | +32.5% | +6.8% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | +5.9% | -5.1% | -5.0% | +3.4% | +12.4% | +7.2% | -6.2% | 28% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | +0.9% | +6.4% | +5.8% | +2.3% | +10.7% | +18.5% | +3.2% | 24% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +10.4% | -9.5% | -8.2% | -1.8% | -3.9% | -5.0% | -16.6% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -7.7% | -7.8% | -5.5% | -0.1% | +9.4% | +4.0% | -10.1% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2023-02-02 Thursday | +21.8% | -3.5% | -0.6% | -3.3% | -7.9% | +1.9% | -10.5% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | -9.9% | -7.2% | -7.7% | +6.3% | +22.9% | +14.7% | -9.4% | 42% | Sideways / High (>25) | -0% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | +16.6% | -2.4% | -4.5% | +1.9% | -3.5% | -0.3% | -9.7% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | -16.1% | +5.8% | +9.7% | +0.6% | -11.4% | +11.9% | -6.8% | 44% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2022-02-02 Wednesday | +0.5% | -3.9% | -4.8% | +2.7% | -7.3% | +2.1% | -17.2% | 49% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +8.1% | +12.9% | +12.7% | +2.4% | +13.8% | +36.3% | +10.7% | 20% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | -0.1% | +2.9% | +6.0% | -1.8% | -4.7% | +6.9% | -2.4% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +5.0% | +6.2% | +4.5% | -5.6% | -6.7% | +6.4% | -9.4% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2021-02-03 Wednesday | +6.5% | -7.5% | -8.8% | -1.7% | -13.2% | -6.5% | -21.6% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | +4.8% | +13.1% | +12.8% | +1.6% | +3.5% | +19.0% | +7.4% | 27% | Sideways / High (>25) | +23% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +2.0% | +10.1% | +15.2% | +3.9% | +8.3% | +25.9% | +8.2% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | +16.7% | +1.6% | -0.4% | +0.2% | -0.7% | +3.8% | -6.2% | 52% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | +2.2% | -3.1% | -0.3% | +1.2% | -11.9% | +1.7% | -19.3% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2019-11-06 Wednesday | +13.8% | +6.1% | +6.3% | +0.5% | -7.5% | +11.2% | -5.7% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | -5.0% | -5.8% | -2.7% | -2.5% | +4.4% | +8.1% | -8.3% | 21% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | 2 | +48.7% | +1.3% | +0.9% | -3.0% | -23.6% | +4.6% | -25.0% | 83% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +9% |
| 2019-01-30 Wednesday | -11.8% | +2.0% | -1.3% | +3.2% | +7.8% | +7.6% | -2.1% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2018-11-07 Wednesday | -5.3% | -8.2% | -8.2% | -7.1% | -2.5% | -4.3% | -15.3% | 29% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2018-07-25 Wednesday | +5.3% | +6.1% | +7.0% | +1.2% | +5.1% | +12.9% | +3.1% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2018-04-25 Wednesday | -9.3% | -0.5% | +1.4% | -0.4% | +16.5% | +18.3% | -2.4% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2018-01-31 Wednesday | +4.7% | -1.8% | -2.1% | -2.6% | -1.9% | +0.1% | -11.4% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | +2.9% | +0.3% | +2.6% | +19.4% | +22.0% | +29.6% | +0.3% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2017-07-19 Wednesday | -0.0% | -2.9% | -5.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -2.4% | -8.4% | 16% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-04-19 Wednesday | -7.4% | +1.2% | +0.1% | +0.7% | +5.1% | +6.6% | -3.0% | 16% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2017-01-25 Wednesday | 1 | -14.9% | -2.7% | -5.0% | -1.7% | +5.7% | +0.7% | -8.0% | 52% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +1% |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | +0.4% | +0.9% | -0.2% | +1.4% | -3.4% | +2.6% | -4.2% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2016-07-20 Wednesday | +3.6% | +7.1% | +7.4% | +4.3% | +3.9% | +12.5% | +5.9% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2016-04-20 Wednesday | +0.1% | -1.5% | -0.8% | +2.4% | +2.2% | +2.4% | -3.8% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2016-01-27 Wednesday | -4.1% | -3.6% | -8.3% | +2.6% | +18.5% | +9.0% | -11.1% | 34% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2015-11-04 Wednesday | +6.5% | -5.9% | -15.2% | +3.5% | +1.6% | -5.7% | -21.1% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2015-07-22 Wednesday | -4.2% | -2.5% | -3.8% | +2.2% | -1.0% | +1.2% | -5.4% | 20% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-04-22 Wednesday | -0.0% | -2.3% | -0.9% | +0.5% | +1.4% | +3.2% | -2.9% | 21% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | -5.3% | -7.7% | -10.3% | +5.1% | +13.1% | +1.8% | -12.3% | 14% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_QCOM.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.