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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ITRI has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed ITRI earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.23 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -4.6% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +2.1% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday expl. | -1.6% | 5 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.9%
Median reaction
+0.8%
Avg |move|
5.9%
Up rate
57%
Avg drift T-20
+2.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.5% | +2.2% | 11.2 | -24.6% / +24.6% | 52% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.5% | +0.2% | 9.0 | -27.0% / +25.4% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.5% | +1.5% | 5.0 | -14.1% / +14.0% | 61% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.9% | +0.8% | 7.5 | -16.1% / +21.4% | 57% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.3% | +0.1% | 4.8 | -12.3% / +15.4% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | -0.5% | +0.7% | 10.4 | -35.5% / +18.0% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.6% | +8.3% | 8.4 | -5.0% / +28.4% | 85% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.8% | -5.8% | 10.3 | -48.5% / +9.2% | 24% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 15 | +1.7% | +1.7% | 5.4 | 73% |
| Monday | 16 | +1.1% | -0.8% | 9.0 | 44% |
| Wednesday | 10 | +0.8% | +3.1% | 8.5 | 60% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 5 | -1.6% | -5.0% | 5.1 | 40% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +8.8% | +9.8% | 10.9 | 75% |
| Sideways | 10 | +5.7% | +6.3% | 3.5 | 100% |
| Mild Up | 13 | +0.6% | +0.0% | 4.7 | 54% |
| Strong Up | 16 | -2.6% | -1.0% | 7.7 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -4.6% | -5.6% | 2.0 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | +2.1% | +0.8% | 7.2 | 62% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -0.5% | +2.4% | 8.5 | 60% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | -0.6% | -0.5% | 7.5 | 47% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +6.9% | +6.0% | 9.9 | 69% |
| Sideways | 10 | +4.1% | -0.8% | 10.6 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +3.5% | +4.8% | 6.5 | 75% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -2.0% | -7.0% | 7.6 | 33% |
| Mild Up | 13 | -3.4% | -4.1% | 11.8 | 31% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 7.8% | -5.0% | -1.4% | 0.63x |
| 2026-02-17 | 10.4% | +3.3% | +2.7% | 0.31x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | +3.7% | -1.4% | -5.0% | +2.1% | +3.2% | -0.1% | -10.6% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2026-02-17 Tuesday | -3.6% | +2.7% | +3.3% | -1.8% | -7.3% | +8.4% | -7.4% | 51% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | 1 | -11.8% | +2.5% | -8.0% | +5.6% | -1.3% | +2.8% | -14.3% | 89% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | 1 | -7.1% | +1.4% | -1.1% | +1.2% | +0.2% | +3.3% | -2.8% | 39% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | +0.6% | +1.9% | +0.2% | -0.3% | +6.8% | +7.9% | -2.5% | 51% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2025-02-25 Tuesday | -3.6% | +3.1% | +5.8% | -1.8% | +0.5% | +7.6% | +0.3% | 47% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | +7.9% | +1.0% | +0.0% | +9.9% | +6.0% | +11.8% | -3.4% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +63% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | +8.7% | -3.9% | -6.4% | -2.4% | +0.5% | -2.8% | -13.1% | 37% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | +9.1% | +2.7% | +7.2% | +1.4% | +0.5% | +11.2% | +0.3% | 37% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +48% | |
| 2024-02-26 Monday | 1 | +23.7% | +2.3% | -0.5% | +3.0% | -2.0% | +5.8% | -5.8% | 76% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +64% |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | 1 | +10.9% | +1.6% | +0.3% | -2.5% | +7.4% | +8.2% | -2.6% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +92% |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +10.3% | -0.4% | -6.2% | -2.2% | -4.7% | -0.4% | -14.0% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +113% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | 1 | +24.6% | +1.6% | +4.4% | -2.9% | +1.6% | +6.3% | -2.0% | 70% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +361% |
| 2023-02-27 Monday | -8.3% | -0.0% | +7.8% | -1.1% | -5.9% | +10.7% | -2.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +715% | |
| 2022-11-03 Thursday | -3.2% | +1.5% | +8.3% | +15.4% | +16.5% | +28.4% | +0.7% | 54% | Sideways / High (>25) | +7% | |
| 2022-08-04 Thursday | 1 | +4.7% | -3.0% | +1.9% | +3.2% | -7.5% | +9.7% | -8.2% | 69% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -69% |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -7.7% | 0.0% | -1.9% | +0.5% | +6.9% | +9.8% | -7.9% | 35% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +35% | |
| 2022-02-28 Monday | 1 | -18.9% | 0.0% | +4.7% | -9.6% | +2.8% | +10.8% | -7.7% | 59% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +294% |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +7.5% | +0.8% | +1.7% | -9.3% | -22.7% | +3.6% | -22.8% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2021-08-05 Thursday | 1 | -24.6% | +3.0% | +7.3% | +6.9% | +8.5% | +20.4% | +2.6% | 112% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -41% |
| 2021-05-03 Monday | -5.3% | -1.6% | -4.4% | +0.7% | +15.1% | +10.9% | -7.3% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2021-02-24 Wednesday | 1 | +21.1% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +3.0% | -28.1% | +6.1% | -27.4% | 73% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +118% |
| 2020-11-02 Monday | +3.8% | +2.0% | +2.4% | +7.1% | +17.2% | +25.4% | -2.6% | 24% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +148% | |
| 2020-08-03 Monday | +7.2% | -8.7% | -6.4% | -0.5% | -10.8% | -1.6% | -17.3% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +115% | |
| 2020-05-04 Monday | +23.9% | -12.2% | -16.1% | +9.4% | +18.0% | +2.3% | -24.5% | 68% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -6% | |
| 2020-02-24 Monday | -9.0% | +7.5% | -2.0% | +2.8% | -35.5% | +11.2% | -48.5% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% | |
| 2019-11-04 Monday | +4.7% | +3.4% | +3.8% | -2.3% | +1.1% | +5.2% | -3.9% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +58% | |
| 2019-08-05 Monday | -6.7% | +9.6% | +17.1% | -0.6% | +1.2% | +22.5% | +7.0% | 20% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +89% | |
| 2019-05-06 Monday | +11.2% | +6.2% | +21.4% | -12.3% | -8.7% | +22.1% | +4.3% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +60% | |
| 2019-02-27 Wednesday | +17.9% | -5.5% | -13.9% | -6.1% | -12.8% | -5.0% | -26.0% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2018-11-05 Monday | -7.0% | -4.6% | -5.6% | +2.4% | +1.2% | +3.4% | -9.5% | 42% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +28% | |
| 2018-08-06 Monday | -2.2% | -5.9% | +6.4% | -5.3% | +2.2% | +9.7% | -8.8% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2018-05-14 Monday | -4.4% | -6.2% | -7.5% | -3.7% | -6.2% | -3.6% | -15.6% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -1% | |
| 2018-02-28 Wednesday | -5.1% | +4.7% | +6.1% | -0.4% | -6.2% | +10.6% | -1.9% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | -0.3% | -14.1% | -15.0% | +0.9% | -3.1% | -4.5% | -20.0% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -13% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | +7.9% | +1.6% | -0.9% | +1.0% | +0.6% | +1.9% | -5.8% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | +5.1% | +4.1% | +4.8% | -0.3% | +3.9% | +9.1% | +1.6% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +18% | |
| 2017-02-28 Tuesday | +5.9% | +0.1% | -5.7% | -3.0% | -1.1% | +0.1% | -10.7% | 16% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +18% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | -8.9% | +14.0% | +12.1% | +2.3% | +9.6% | +27.2% | +9.2% | 14% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2016-09-01 Thursday | 1 | +20.0% | +2.6% | +4.8% | +0.9% | +4.4% | +10.5% | +0.4% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +47% |
| 2016-08-11 Thursday | -0.9% | +5.3% | +10.3% | -0.7% | +11.7% | +24.2% | +0.7% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2016-02-17 Wednesday | +19.1% | +5.4% | +8.4% | +1.2% | +0.6% | +18.6% | +1.5% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2015-11-03 Tuesday | +10.8% | -0.5% | -6.4% | -1.2% | +1.3% | +1.0% | -11.8% | 28% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -21% | |
| 2015-08-05 Wednesday | -2.8% | +0.1% | +5.3% | +3.0% | -9.9% | +9.8% | -7.2% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -381% | |
| 2015-05-04 Monday | -4.1% | -2.1% | -1.2% | +0.9% | +1.6% | +3.5% | -4.3% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -21% | |
| 2015-02-11 Wednesday | -9.1% | +2.8% | -0.4% | -1.6% | +0.8% | +10.8% | -5.2% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -7% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ITRI.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.