Tour
396
Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ENPH has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed ENPH earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.12 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -1.1% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.7% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +4.5% | 41 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+3.2%
Median reaction
+3.5%
Avg |move|
14.2%
Up rate
57%
Avg drift T-20
+2.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.6% | +2.0% | 17.0 | -25.5% / +37.4% | 54% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.6% | +0.5% | 9.6 | -21.6% / +21.5% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.7% | +3.6% | 13.4 | -39.0% / +28.8% | 59% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +3.2% | +3.5% | 17.1 | -37.4% / +42.4% | 57% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.7% | -2.4% | 11.4 | -22.8% / +35.4% | 43% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +4.6% | +0.3% | 26.9 | -48.8% / +125.3% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +24.6% | +17.6% | 33.2 | -34.1% / +136.3% | 80% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -13.7% | -14.4% | 18.0 | -56.2% / +20.6% | 24% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 41 | +4.5% | +5.0% | 17.6 | 61% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | -3.8% | -0.9% | 6.8 | 33% |
| Thursday n<10 | 2 | -11.1% | -11.1% | 3.6 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 7 | +8.8% | +9.9% | 13.2 | 86% |
| Sideways | 11 | +8.6% | +14.0% | 15.0 | 73% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +6.2% | +5.0% | 18.9 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -1.1% | -1.5% | 9.2 | 40% |
| Strong Up | 18 | -1.8% | -5.8% | 18.9 | 39% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 15 | +5.3% | +4.5% | 21.6 | 53% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +5.0% | +7.7% | 11.4 | 80% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | +1.7% | +1.0% | 14.8 | 54% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 7 | +7.6% | +3.7% | 12.4 | 57% |
| Strong Up | 18 | +6.0% | +4.6% | 17.7 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -0.0% | -1.8% | 13.9 | 40% |
| Sideways | 11 | -1.2% | -4.2% | 19.0 | 45% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -5.6% | -8.2% | 12.2 | 40% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 15.7% | -9.1% | -0.8% | 0.58x |
| 2026-02-03 | 13.5% | +38.6% | +28.8% | 2.86x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | -3.8% | -0.8% | -9.1% | +15.5% | +125.3% | +112.0% | -12.8% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | 1 | +9.7% | +28.8% | +38.6% | -2.8% | -17.4% | +42.0% | +10.0% | 56% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | +3.7% | -13.6% | -15.2% | -6.8% | -11.0% | -8.9% | -29.8% | 44% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2025-07-22 Tuesday | 2 | +23.0% | -5.8% | -14.2% | -8.2% | -0.7% | -5.2% | -29.7% | 72% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% |
| 2025-04-22 Tuesday | 1 | -14.0% | -11.4% | -15.7% | +5.9% | +8.8% | +1.9% | -19.4% | 74% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -6% |
| 2025-02-04 Tuesday | -8.2% | +3.4% | -1.5% | -4.1% | -10.1% | +6.8% | -22.1% | 43% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2024-10-22 Tuesday | -21.0% | -16.7% | -14.9% | +5.9% | -21.8% | -2.5% | -36.8% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -17% | |
| 2024-07-23 Tuesday | -4.0% | +5.4% | +12.8% | -6.5% | +0.1% | +18.6% | -6.6% | 58% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -10% | |
| 2024-04-23 Tuesday | +2.2% | -0.8% | -5.6% | +1.5% | +4.0% | +7.2% | -13.3% | 62% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2024-02-06 Tuesday | -13.3% | +18.9% | +16.9% | +5.2% | +6.7% | +37.5% | +13.8% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2023-10-26 Thursday | 1 | -19.9% | -14.6% | -14.7% | -3.9% | +22.1% | +5.9% | -23.6% | 69% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% |
| 2023-07-27 Thursday | +3.3% | -10.1% | -7.5% | -9.1% | -20.7% | -6.1% | -27.0% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2023-04-25 Tuesday | +12.7% | -19.0% | -25.7% | -6.7% | -0.6% | -16.9% | -31.0% | 47% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2023-02-07 Tuesday | 1 | +0.2% | +8.1% | -4.2% | -4.8% | -0.3% | +8.1% | -14.1% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% |
| 2022-10-25 Tuesday | -6.8% | +9.5% | +9.9% | +2.6% | +9.8% | +21.5% | -1.1% | 54% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +15% | |
| 2022-07-26 Tuesday | +4.8% | +8.9% | +17.9% | +14.7% | +12.0% | +42.9% | +6.0% | 66% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | 1 | -21.3% | +10.2% | +7.7% | +5.3% | -1.9% | +25.4% | -16.4% | 70% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +15% |
| 2022-02-08 Tuesday | 1 | -1.8% | +23.5% | +12.0% | -4.7% | +11.1% | +26.8% | -17.9% | 67% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +23% |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +15.1% | +18.5% | +24.6% | +9.9% | +15.8% | +62.8% | +17.6% | 50% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | -8.2% | -1.5% | +5.0% | +6.2% | -4.7% | +16.6% | -7.5% | 42% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | +20.4% | -12.1% | -14.1% | -13.0% | -5.7% | -10.6% | -36.4% | 67% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2021-02-09 Tuesday | -0.8% | +7.0% | +1.0% | -6.3% | -24.6% | +14.5% | -35.5% | 71% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2020-10-27 Tuesday | 1 | +22.1% | -1.4% | +4.2% | +1.9% | +32.3% | +40.6% | -5.2% | 77% | Sideways / High (>25) | +27% |
| 2020-08-04 Tuesday | 1 | +36.2% | +0.1% | +8.8% | -10.2% | +5.0% | +15.3% | -2.7% | 75% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% |
| 2020-05-05 Tuesday | 3 | +30.3% | +5.9% | +18.7% | +12.5% | +1.2% | +58.6% | +4.8% | 100% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +18% |
| 2020-02-18 Tuesday | 1 | +27.5% | +18.3% | +42.4% | -11.1% | -48.8% | +47.2% | -41.0% | 67% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +18% |
| 2019-10-29 Tuesday | +16.0% | -13.9% | -25.5% | -0.9% | +14.7% | -12.7% | -31.8% | 50% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2019-07-30 Tuesday | +18.3% | +21.5% | +30.0% | +2.0% | +17.4% | +63.6% | +20.6% | 43% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +41% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | +8.4% | +22.5% | +29.3% | +9.5% | +25.5% | +62.2% | +19.5% | 43% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +68% | |
| 2019-02-26 Tuesday | +17.2% | +3.8% | +9.6% | -1.9% | -1.8% | +19.9% | -0.9% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -31% | |
| 2018-11-06 Tuesday | +13.4% | -4.3% | +9.5% | -3.5% | +4.1% | +23.1% | -10.7% | 67% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2018-07-31 Tuesday | -16.7% | -8.1% | -6.0% | +5.0% | -10.4% | +2.4% | -26.1% | 58% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +140% | |
| 2018-05-01 Tuesday | 1 | -4.2% | +5.9% | +14.0% | -3.0% | +34.6% | +55.2% | +3.7% | 68% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +71% |
| 2018-02-27 Tuesday | 2 | +37.4% | +14.7% | +19.0% | +16.0% | +53.0% | +100.0% | +10.0% | 108% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +300% |
| 2017-11-07 Tuesday | +5.8% | +10.3% | +19.9% | +35.4% | +54.3% | +136.3% | +6.8% | 69% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +79% | |
| 2017-08-08 Tuesday | 1 | +12.7% | +6.7% | +4.5% | -16.1% | +19.4% | +28.1% | -14.6% | 59% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -7% |
| 2017-05-10 Wednesday | -20.9% | +0.9% | -13.2% | -22.8% | -14.1% | +1.9% | -38.7% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -17% | |
| 2017-02-28 Tuesday | 1 | +20.1% | -13.4% | -10.1% | -20.5% | -22.4% | -6.2% | -36.3% | 60% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -20% |
| 2016-11-01 Tuesday | -15.8% | +8.9% | +15.8% | +2.6% | -4.3% | +22.8% | +2.0% | 51% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -16% | |
| 2016-08-02 Tuesday | -5.8% | -1.1% | 0.0% | +10.6% | +2.8% | +11.7% | -2.2% | 38% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -3% | |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | 1 | -18.6% | +6.7% | -0.9% | -8.7% | +0.5% | +6.7% | -17.6% | 81% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -5% |
| 2016-02-23 Tuesday | +1.7% | -21.3% | -15.7% | +23.2% | +24.2% | +46.0% | -23.4% | 80% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -12% | |
| 2015-11-03 Tuesday | 2 | -22.0% | -39.0% | -37.4% | -17.6% | -13.3% | -34.1% | -56.2% | 125% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +373% |
| 2015-08-04 Tuesday | 1 | -25.5% | +6.4% | +23.8% | -18.8% | -36.7% | +25.9% | -30.9% | 91% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +669% |
| 2015-05-06 Wednesday | 1 | -17.7% | +1.5% | +2.8% | -10.1% | -15.2% | +8.3% | -15.0% | 60% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
| 2015-02-17 Tuesday | +29.1% | +9.2% | +1.1% | -2.1% | -5.8% | +9.6% | -11.1% | 62% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +147% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ENPH.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.