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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: FSLR has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed FSLR earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.01 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.0% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.2% | 24 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +1.6% | 27 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.3%
Median reaction
+1.4%
Avg |move|
7.5%
Up rate
57%
Avg drift T-20
+2.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.9% | +0.8% | 11.2 | -20.8% / +32.4% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.9% | +0.3% | 6.3 | -10.9% / +20.8% | 59% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.5% | +0.6% | 6.9 | -18.8% / +12.6% | 54% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.3% | +1.4% | 9.0 | -15.0% / +20.4% | 57% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.6% | -0.3% | 7.1 | -16.3% / +18.9% | 48% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.6% | +1.3% | 15.8 | -33.9% / +53.3% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +14.8% | +13.7% | 15.2 | -11.6% / +61.4% | 87% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -9.8% | -9.8% | 11.4 | -52.0% / +7.9% | 26% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 15 | +3.3% | +2.9% | 9.4 | 67% |
| Thursday | 27 | +1.6% | +1.1% | 8.3 | 56% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 4 | -8.2% | -9.6% | 6.2 | 25% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +2.7% | +3.9% | 10.0 | 56% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +1.4% | +1.0% | 7.1 | 75% |
| Mild Up | 13 | +1.2% | +1.1% | 8.3 | 54% |
| Sideways | 10 | +0.0% | +1.2% | 9.5 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -2.0% | +1.1% | 5.3 | 67% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 16 | +3.1% | +3.3% | 9.1 | 62% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +1.0% | +0.3% | 6.3 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 24 | +0.2% | +1.0% | 9.4 | 54% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +5.3% | +1.9% | 12.2 | 62% |
| Sideways | 10 | +3.5% | +1.5% | 9.3 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +3.1% | +1.5% | 8.4 | 50% |
| Mild Up | 13 | +2.4% | +0.6% | 11.3 | 69% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -9.1% | -10.3% | 2.8 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 8.7% | +4.9% | -0.9% | 0.56x |
| 2026-02-24 | 9.2% | -13.6% | -18.8% | 1.48x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | +1.2% | -0.9% | +4.9% | +1.4% | +44.9% | +55.4% | -1.0% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2026-02-24 Tuesday | 1 | +0.1% | -18.8% | -13.6% | -6.0% | -8.2% | -11.6% | -23.4% | 61% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -6% |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | +0.6% | +6.7% | +14.3% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +20.5% | +3.2% | 47% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | +2.5% | +6.6% | +5.3% | +0.9% | +7.1% | +26.8% | +1.0% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2025-04-29 Tuesday | 1 | +8.6% | -12.0% | -8.3% | +0.8% | +24.3% | +44.9% | -13.2% | 73% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -21% |
| 2025-02-25 Tuesday | -10.3% | +4.9% | +6.4% | -16.3% | -16.2% | +13.9% | -15.3% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -22% | |
| 2024-10-29 Tuesday | -17.0% | -6.0% | -1.1% | +9.3% | -2.6% | +10.8% | -13.2% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -8% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | -5.3% | +4.4% | +2.4% | -2.6% | +9.0% | +15.8% | -7.4% | 59% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | +6.5% | +0.5% | +1.6% | +5.7% | +53.3% | +61.4% | -3.1% | 31% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-02-27 Tuesday | -2.9% | +6.2% | +2.9% | +6.6% | +2.6% | +16.4% | +0.5% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2023-10-31 Tuesday | -5.8% | +4.2% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +8.8% | +14.1% | -9.3% | 49% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2023-07-27 Thursday | +7.9% | +12.5% | +4.8% | -5.8% | -16.3% | +12.9% | -12.6% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +70% | |
| 2023-04-27 Thursday | -6.7% | -8.0% | -9.1% | -6.0% | +10.1% | +15.5% | -15.1% | 39% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -61% | |
| 2023-02-28 Tuesday | -1.0% | +6.8% | +15.7% | +9.5% | +7.3% | +29.0% | +4.8% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +48% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | +0.2% | -0.0% | +1.1% | +18.9% | +29.2% | +32.0% | -2.8% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -114% | |
| 2022-07-28 Thursday | 1 | +32.4% | +2.2% | +12.1% | 0.0% | +22.7% | +37.8% | +1.9% | 71% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1399% |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | -11.8% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +4.6% | -6.8% | +9.3% | -17.5% | 28% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2022-03-01 Tuesday | -3.5% | -12.9% | -8.1% | +14.4% | +21.7% | +13.4% | -16.7% | 56% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +14% | |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +19.6% | -2.5% | -0.3% | -2.3% | -15.5% | +2.7% | -17.0% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -31% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | -7.5% | -2.1% | +2.8% | +6.5% | +8.9% | +16.5% | -3.6% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +42% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | -0.0% | -3.8% | -12.3% | -3.8% | +0.5% | -2.7% | -22.4% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +61% | |
| 2021-02-25 Thursday | -20.8% | -1.3% | -0.5% | -7.0% | -0.4% | +6.6% | -16.4% | 44% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -17% | |
| 2020-10-27 Tuesday | +25.3% | +12.1% | +13.2% | -6.5% | -3.1% | +18.9% | -5.6% | 44% | Sideways / High (>25) | +134% | |
| 2020-08-06 Thursday | +12.7% | +7.2% | +13.1% | +3.8% | -0.6% | +27.0% | +7.0% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +81% | |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | +14.8% | +1.7% | -1.1% | -9.9% | +16.4% | +16.4% | -15.1% | 62% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +320% | |
| 2020-02-20 Thursday | +17.3% | -10.7% | -14.7% | -12.5% | -33.9% | -10.0% | -52.0% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -279% | |
| 2019-10-24 Thursday | -10.6% | -3.4% | -5.8% | -1.6% | +2.3% | -1.4% | -10.1% | 35% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -74% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +1.0% | +0.6% | -0.3% | -2.8% | -6.2% | +1.0% | -12.4% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -1111% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +9.1% | +2.6% | +3.2% | -4.6% | -6.0% | +6.6% | -5.5% | 32% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -375% | |
| 2019-02-21 Thursday | +11.6% | -1.8% | +3.4% | -2.2% | +2.0% | +7.9% | -5.6% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -21% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -10.3% | -6.4% | -9.5% | +5.3% | +10.1% | +5.9% | -16.1% | 28% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +36% | |
| 2018-07-26 Thursday | +5.3% | -5.7% | -3.8% | +3.8% | -0.1% | +2.9% | -10.6% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -3686% | |
| 2018-04-26 Thursday | +8.3% | +1.2% | +3.8% | -15.4% | -12.3% | +8.8% | -13.4% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +709% | |
| 2018-02-22 Thursday | -3.9% | -1.1% | -6.8% | +0.5% | +16.7% | +12.7% | -8.9% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -1216% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +3.9% | +8.7% | +20.4% | +0.3% | +5.1% | +30.6% | +7.9% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +175% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | +10.7% | +8.9% | +9.1% | -3.2% | -3.4% | +12.1% | +2.1% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +675% | |
| 2017-05-02 Tuesday | +15.2% | +7.2% | +11.8% | +5.5% | +13.6% | +31.7% | +6.0% | 28% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +124% | |
| 2017-02-21 Tuesday | +8.8% | -3.0% | -8.3% | +7.8% | -13.5% | +5.1% | -20.8% | 32% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -17% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | +2.1% | -5.1% | -15.0% | -7.0% | -12.7% | -4.9% | -29.5% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +104% | |
| 2016-08-03 Wednesday | +0.2% | +0.5% | -11.2% | -11.6% | -13.5% | +0.5% | -25.4% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -76% | |
| 2016-04-27 Wednesday | -10.1% | -4.8% | -8.1% | -9.2% | -11.3% | -4.2% | -24.8% | 33% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +72% | |
| 2016-02-23 Tuesday | -3.7% | +3.5% | +12.4% | -0.6% | +2.6% | +20.2% | +3.5% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +108% | |
| 2015-10-29 Thursday | +19.5% | +11.6% | +11.9% | +2.2% | -1.7% | +17.4% | +2.3% | 37% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +113% | |
| 2015-08-04 Tuesday | -1.4% | +12.6% | +16.7% | -0.9% | -9.0% | +20.5% | -9.6% | 36% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +87% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -1.9% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -1.8% | -13.3% | +0.5% | -16.7% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -128% | |
| 2015-02-24 Tuesday | 1 | +23.8% | +2.6% | +7.0% | +3.7% | +6.8% | +15.4% | +2.6% | 51% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +147% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_FSLR.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.