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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: PI has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed PI earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.17 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +5.9% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.3% | 21 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +2.8% | 26 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
40
Avg reaction
+2.5%
Median reaction
+3.3%
Avg |move|
16.4%
Up rate
58%
Avg drift T-20
+2.8%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 40 | +2.8% | +4.8% | 18.8 | -43.5% / +36.0% | 58% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 40 | +1.3% | -0.1% | 8.7 | -15.9% / +19.7% | 50% |
| Overnight gap | 40 | +2.3% | +3.7% | 15.9 | -33.3% / +35.3% | 55% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 40 | +2.5% | +3.3% | 19.3 | -39.1% / +34.9% | 58% |
| Follow-through +5d | 40 | +2.1% | -0.1% | 9.0 | -15.5% / +27.9% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 40 | +4.0% | +5.5% | 16.0 | -34.4% / +32.6% | 62% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 40 | +19.9% | +14.9% | 25.9 | -25.7% / +70.3% | 68% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 40 | -12.2% | -12.1% | 19.9 | -59.6% / +18.6% | 32% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 7 | +12.2% | +13.1% | 14.5 | 86% |
| Wednesday | 26 | +2.8% | +1.7% | 20.3 | 54% |
| Thursday n<10 | 7 | -7.8% | -11.8% | 13.4 | 43% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +10.3% | +16.3% | 24.1 | 75% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +5.9% | +0.7% | 15.2 | 60% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 7 | +2.3% | +8.7% | 13.2 | 57% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +1.0% | +1.9% | 19.3 | 56% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | -10.5% | -10.9% | 12.5 | 25% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +7.8% | +6.2% | 13.3 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 13 | +4.8% | +5.7% | 20.6 | 62% |
| Medium (15-25) | 21 | -0.3% | +0.7% | 19.4 | 57% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 7 | +9.7% | +21.2% | 24.5 | 71% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +8.8% | +7.4% | 14.9 | 69% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +0.4% | +1.3% | 16.9 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | -2.7% | +2.4% | 10.9 | 75% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -18.0% | -16.5% | 8.2 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 23.8% | +20.7% | +29.1% | 0.87x |
| 2026-02-05 | 20.6% | -24.6% | -18.9% | 1.19x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +16.9% | +29.1% | +20.7% | +7.0% | +8.2% | +36.1% | +8.0% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2026-02-05 Thursday | -21.4% | -18.9% | -24.6% | -4.8% | -18.7% | -14.3% | -39.1% | 81% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -1% | |
| 2025-10-29 Wednesday | 2 | +36.0% | -10.8% | -14.8% | -12.6% | -16.1% | -7.8% | -43.4% | 82% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +9.1% | +18.6% | +26.5% | +3.5% | +20.6% | +55.0% | +16.2% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2025-04-23 Wednesday | 4 | -15.9% | +19.2% | +16.4% | +2.6% | +30.9% | +63.8% | +11.0% | 132% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +153% |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | -16.5% | -21.5% | -15.2% | -3.0% | -14.4% | -6.3% | -33.8% | 49% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2024-10-23 Wednesday | +3.9% | -5.9% | -13.6% | -0.2% | -3.3% | -5.0% | -22.7% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2024-07-24 Wednesday | 1 | +1.1% | +7.2% | +4.4% | +0.0% | +3.4% | +9.8% | -15.1% | 60% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2024-04-24 Wednesday | -4.5% | +7.8% | +28.6% | -0.6% | +11.4% | +45.1% | +7.4% | 41% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +91% | |
| 2024-02-08 Thursday | 1 | +27.2% | +10.3% | +3.5% | -3.0% | +5.4% | +12.0% | -8.0% | 51% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +620% |
| 2023-10-25 Wednesday | -7.7% | +25.0% | +23.9% | +1.5% | +31.5% | +70.3% | +17.9% | 53% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | -6.7% | -9.9% | -11.9% | -9.7% | -10.0% | -1.8% | -30.0% | 44% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | +6.9% | -33.3% | -39.1% | +6.4% | +15.5% | -25.7% | -40.8% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -9% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | +5.8% | +7.1% | +0.3% | +6.5% | +6.7% | +15.8% | -5.6% | 59% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-10-26 Wednesday | +5.7% | +21.6% | +29.2% | -3.8% | +5.6% | +39.5% | +14.1% | 57% | Sideways / High (>25) | +100% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | +24.7% | +14.8% | +18.7% | +11.2% | +13.3% | +41.7% | +8.8% | 59% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +523% | |
| 2022-04-27 Wednesday | 1 | -24.5% | +2.5% | -1.0% | +6.5% | -11.0% | +5.8% | -21.5% | 68% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +887% |
| 2022-02-09 Wednesday | 1 | +3.8% | -14.3% | -21.0% | -0.7% | -15.0% | -11.4% | -38.0% | 63% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +540% |
| 2021-10-27 Wednesday | -1.9% | +8.7% | +27.0% | +13.6% | +8.5% | +52.2% | +6.4% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +60% | |
| 2021-07-28 Wednesday | -18.0% | +4.4% | +3.1% | +6.2% | +26.6% | +34.0% | -5.1% | 48% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +354% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +6.8% | -8.7% | -19.4% | +8.9% | +9.9% | -4.9% | -26.6% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +108% | |
| 2021-02-10 Wednesday | +15.5% | +11.8% | +9.4% | -1.3% | -13.1% | +23.9% | -21.2% | 55% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +5.7% | -5.1% | -0.8% | +1.6% | +27.5% | +31.4% | -12.5% | 44% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | -3.8% | -9.2% | -13.8% | +10.9% | +1.7% | +2.3% | -17.5% | 58% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2020-04-27 Monday | 2 | +32.3% | +16.7% | +13.3% | -5.6% | +18.3% | +35.6% | +2.5% | 88% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +822% |
| 2020-03-02 Monday | -11.8% | -3.5% | -10.7% | -15.5% | -34.4% | -1.3% | -59.6% | 57% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +500% | |
| 2019-11-04 Monday | +8.4% | +3.3% | +5.7% | -4.0% | -13.9% | +13.6% | -11.7% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2764% | |
| 2019-07-29 Monday | +23.4% | -2.0% | +13.1% | -8.7% | -5.2% | +13.9% | -2.9% | 41% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +134% | |
| 2019-04-29 Monday | +29.5% | +22.1% | +34.9% | -0.2% | -16.7% | +43.3% | +8.4% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +58% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | +26.5% | -3.4% | -6.1% | -1.2% | +0.1% | -0.8% | -16.8% | 53% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +33% | |
| 2018-10-29 Monday | 1 | -28.4% | +4.1% | +0.7% | +18.1% | +5.7% | +23.4% | -12.5% | 78% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +64% |
| 2018-09-12 Wednesday | -3.0% | +35.3% | +33.2% | -3.4% | -14.7% | +51.6% | +13.1% | 39% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +37% | |
| 2018-05-07 Monday | +8.1% | +19.3% | +28.1% | +2.2% | +17.7% | +55.7% | +18.6% | 53% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -4% | |
| 2018-02-15 Thursday | 1 | -43.5% | -12.5% | -17.6% | +16.0% | +22.9% | +9.8% | -25.9% | 227% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -45% |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | -18.6% | -29.6% | -34.3% | +18.6% | +18.2% | -14.8% | -39.1% | 37% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -133% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | -2.9% | -20.7% | -21.7% | -10.4% | +1.9% | -16.9% | -37.8% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +200% | |
| 2017-05-04 Thursday | +31.4% | -7.5% | +8.7% | -4.6% | +11.3% | +26.5% | -10.2% | 40% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +175% | |
| 2017-02-16 Thursday | +16.3% | -6.5% | -11.8% | -3.8% | -7.8% | -5.4% | -24.5% | 43% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +28% | |
| 2016-11-03 Thursday | 1 | -26.1% | +9.5% | +8.8% | +11.0% | -2.9% | +32.3% | -5.9% | 56% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +67% |
| 2016-08-31 Wednesday | 2 | +21.2% | +16.2% | +20.8% | +27.9% | +32.6% | +68.4% | +8.0% | 75% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +200% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_PI.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.