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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: FTNT has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed FTNT earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.07 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +4.7% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.5% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | -1.2% | 13 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.2%
Median reaction
-0.8%
Avg |move|
9.0%
Up rate
48%
Avg drift T-20
+2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.2% | +1.5% | 8.6 | -17.1% / +21.1% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.8% | +1.2% | 4.1 | -7.9% / +10.1% | 61% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.1% | +0.2% | 9.8 | -23.1% / +17.7% | 52% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.2% | -0.8% | 11.0 | -25.1% / +25.3% | 48% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.6% | +1.6% | 4.3 | -8.3% / +10.2% | 63% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.9% | +3.7% | 9.4 | -15.7% / +38.6% | 74% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +9.7% | +10.1% | 14.8 | -17.9% / +66.8% | 72% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.0% | -7.2% | 11.1 | -27.4% / +16.5% | 26% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 4 | +11.9% | +9.3% | 8.1 | 100% |
| Monday n<10 | 2 | +8.1% | +8.1% | 1.9 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 13 | -1.2% | -5.3% | 13.2 | 31% |
| Thursday | 27 | -1.4% | -1.0% | 9.1 | 44% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | +4.7% | +5.8% | 12.5 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +2.5% | +3.8% | 7.0 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +0.9% | +2.3% | 12.9 | 56% |
| Mild Up | 10 | -1.9% | -2.4% | 10.0 | 30% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -2.8% | -3.5% | 7.9 | 33% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +5.3% | +2.6% | 14.1 | 50% |
| Low (<15) | 14 | +1.2% | +0.2% | 9.9 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -1.5% | -0.8% | 10.3 | 46% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +7.0% | +8.3% | 7.5 | 88% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +2.2% | +2.2% | 8.6 | 70% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +1.3% | -0.6% | 6.1 | 44% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +0.5% | -1.6% | 4.0 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -9.8% | -7.4% | 5.8 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 10.9% | +20.0% | +17.0% | 1.84x |
| 2026-02-05 | 11.1% | +4.8% | +3.6% | 0.44x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 Wednesday | +7.7% | +17.0% | +20.0% | +9.0% | +38.6% | +66.8% | +16.2% | 40% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2026-02-05 Thursday | -1.4% | +3.6% | +4.8% | +1.8% | +1.1% | +12.2% | -5.8% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2025-11-05 Wednesday | -0.5% | -11.6% | -6.3% | +2.0% | +5.8% | -0.9% | -12.4% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2025-08-06 Wednesday | -10.3% | -23.1% | -22.0% | +5.3% | +1.5% | -15.8% | -27.4% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +21.1% | -8.6% | -8.4% | +5.6% | +5.9% | -0.6% | -12.6% | 53% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% |
| 2025-02-06 Thursday | +9.2% | +4.6% | +2.8% | +2.1% | -5.9% | +9.6% | -6.4% | 21% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2024-11-07 Thursday | +1.4% | +1.0% | +10.0% | +2.6% | +7.8% | +20.2% | +0.7% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2024-08-06 Tuesday | -7.4% | +17.7% | +25.3% | +2.2% | +9.9% | +39.9% | +16.5% | 17% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +40% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -5.8% | -5.1% | -9.7% | -1.3% | +0.8% | -4.2% | -11.5% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2024-02-06 Tuesday | +10.2% | +9.4% | +3.8% | -0.9% | +1.8% | +9.5% | -9.6% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +18% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -0.7% | -22.7% | -12.3% | -1.6% | +4.0% | -4.7% | -23.4% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | +1.5% | -20.2% | -25.1% | +6.7% | +6.1% | -17.9% | -25.9% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2023-05-04 Thursday | -6.1% | -0.7% | +5.6% | +4.5% | +5.5% | +16.5% | -1.1% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2023-02-07 Tuesday | +8.8% | +13.0% | +10.9% | +2.6% | +3.6% | +17.2% | +6.2% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | -0.7% | -14.4% | -13.7% | +8.6% | +20.6% | +7.8% | -19.9% | 43% | Sideways / High (>25) | +21% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +5.0% | -9.6% | -16.3% | +2.4% | -7.5% | -9.4% | -23.2% | 48% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | -15.9% | +5.4% | -1.0% | -8.3% | +6.6% | +7.7% | -15.2% | 52% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +18% | |
| 2022-02-03 Thursday | -2.1% | +2.4% | +5.8% | +3.5% | +6.7% | +18.4% | -7.1% | 49% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +9.3% | +3.2% | +0.8% | -1.3% | -11.2% | +5.0% | -12.3% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | +15.1% | -1.2% | -0.7% | +10.2% | +13.9% | +13.6% | -8.8% | 17% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | +6.0% | +1.4% | +4.5% | +1.1% | +5.9% | +11.9% | -0.5% | 21% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2021-02-04 Thursday | +13.7% | +0.3% | -1.0% | +4.8% | +7.8% | +11.3% | -3.2% | 35% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2020-10-29 Thursday | -1.9% | +0.1% | -6.5% | +8.3% | +12.2% | +5.2% | -9.5% | 38% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +13% | |
| 2020-08-06 Thursday | 1 | -6.7% | -6.2% | -6.1% | -2.7% | -7.9% | -0.6% | -14.7% | 48% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +26% |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | +4.5% | +8.5% | +21.2% | +1.5% | +3.3% | +34.3% | +8.1% | 58% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2020-02-06 Thursday | +6.7% | -2.7% | -3.5% | +1.7% | -15.0% | -0.1% | -19.5% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2019-10-31 Thursday | +5.4% | +8.7% | +10.5% | +4.5% | +16.6% | +30.0% | +7.0% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +0.2% | +11.4% | +8.9% | -1.9% | -9.4% | +17.4% | -2.4% | 25% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +4.6% | -6.0% | -6.1% | -4.8% | -15.7% | -5.3% | -21.1% | 28% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +19% | |
| 2019-02-06 Wednesday | +13.5% | -0.3% | -2.3% | +3.9% | +3.9% | +9.1% | -6.0% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2018-11-01 Thursday | -6.3% | -2.4% | -13.3% | +7.4% | +1.8% | -2.4% | -22.8% | 43% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | +1.6% | +9.1% | +14.2% | -1.0% | +11.9% | +28.6% | +8.4% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2018-05-03 Thursday | +2.8% | -0.6% | -2.4% | +9.9% | +13.3% | +10.7% | -4.8% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2018-02-05 Monday | -0.6% | +3.3% | +6.2% | -0.1% | +11.4% | +18.5% | +1.5% | 19% | Sideways / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | +11.7% | -7.1% | -3.4% | -0.3% | +8.2% | +4.9% | -7.4% | 19% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +21% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | +9.1% | -2.5% | -5.3% | -5.3% | -3.4% | +0.5% | -11.6% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +36% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | +5.5% | -3.3% | -3.5% | +1.1% | +1.7% | +2.2% | -4.7% | 17% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2017-02-02 Thursday | +9.1% | +12.0% | +13.7% | +0.7% | -3.8% | +15.5% | +8.8% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +46% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | 1 | -16.8% | +2.7% | +6.2% | -3.1% | -3.8% | +12.0% | -1.0% | 42% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% |
| 2016-07-28 Thursday | +19.5% | -9.2% | -6.7% | -2.5% | +2.6% | -3.4% | -12.8% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2016-04-26 Tuesday | +6.4% | +6.6% | +7.8% | -3.6% | +2.5% | +10.9% | +0.4% | 29% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +34% | |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | -17.1% | +13.8% | +6.8% | -5.0% | -0.1% | +13.9% | -12.1% | 39% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -2% | |
| 2015-10-22 Thursday | -5.8% | -15.6% | -19.3% | -2.4% | -1.4% | -14.8% | -25.4% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2015-07-22 Wednesday | -2.1% | +11.6% | +10.7% | +1.1% | +1.1% | +18.9% | +6.5% | 26% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2015-04-20 Monday | -1.9% | +9.7% | +10.0% | +0.3% | +3.8% | +14.7% | +7.5% | 31% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | +0.8% | -6.0% | -6.9% | +6.2% | +16.5% | +10.6% | -9.0% | 23% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_FTNT.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.