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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: VERX has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, August 03, 2026
Next confirmed VERX earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.29 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -0.4% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.5% | 17 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday expl. | -3.8% | 1 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
24
Avg reaction
+0.7%
Median reaction
+0.1%
Avg |move|
4.2%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
-2.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 24 | -2.2% | -0.4% | 21.0 | -40.5% / +38.4% | 50% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 24 | -1.8% | -2.6% | 14.5 | -24.0% / +33.4% | 46% |
| Overnight gap | 24 | +1.0% | +0.6% | 2.4 | -3.0% / +7.0% | 75% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 24 | +0.7% | +0.1% | 6.4 | -10.9% / +18.4% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 24 | +0.5% | +1.5% | 6.4 | -17.1% / +15.2% | 62% |
| Follow-through +20d | 24 | +2.9% | +5.0% | 11.4 | -18.9% / +22.3% | 67% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 24 | +13.0% | +12.7% | 7.3 | +0.8% / +25.7% | 100% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 24 | -8.2% | -7.9% | 6.7 | -23.2% / +2.8% | 12% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 5 | +1.5% | +0.2% | 6.0 | 60% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | +0.9% | -4.8% | 12.6 | 33% |
| Wednesday | 15 | +0.7% | +0.2% | 4.5 | 53% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -3.8% | -3.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up n<10 | 9 | +3.8% | +0.6% | 7.2 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 7.7 | 40% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | -0.7% | -0.4% | 3.4 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 2 | -1.5% | -1.5% | 0.4 | 0% |
| Sideways n<10 | 4 | -2.2% | -1.7% | 3.0 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +1.4% | +0.6% | 8.4 | 60% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 2 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 1.1 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 17 | +0.5% | -0.2% | 6.1 | 47% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +9.3% | +8.0% | 15.3 | 50% |
| Strong Up n<10 | 9 | +6.7% | +9.0% | 19.1 | 67% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 2 | +2.4% | +2.4% | 1.6 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 4 | -14.9% | -17.3% | 23.5 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -18.9% | -27.8% | 12.6 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 9.4% | +1.8% | +0.4% | 0.19x |
| 2026-02-11 | 22.2% | -3.6% | -2.7% | 0.16x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 Thursday | 1 | +30.2% | +0.4% | +1.8% | -17.1% | -11.9% | +2.2% | -15.8% | 80% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2026-02-11 Wednesday | 2 | -35.0% | -2.7% | -3.6% | +3.6% | +11.1% | +23.1% | -7.5% | 83% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | -17.7% | -0.9% | -3.8% | -3.6% | -4.0% | +0.8% | -10.4% | 52% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-08-06 Wednesday | 1 | -25.6% | +0.0% | +1.4% | -3.6% | -12.4% | +6.5% | -14.6% | 75% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | +6.7% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +3.4% | +11.6% | +13.2% | -2.4% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2025-02-27 Thursday | 1 | -40.5% | -3.0% | -6.5% | +5.5% | +11.1% | +6.6% | -12.4% | 82% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +8% |
| 2024-11-06 Wednesday | 1 | +21.3% | +1.7% | +3.2% | -1.5% | +9.1% | +16.0% | -3.1% | 51% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% |
| 2024-08-07 Wednesday | -5.9% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +1.6% | +0.6% | +11.9% | +1.1% | 40% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2024-05-08 Wednesday | -6.4% | +0.3% | +2.0% | +4.2% | +8.9% | +17.1% | -1.0% | 41% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +13% | |
| 2024-02-29 Thursday | 1 | +38.4% | +5.4% | -0.1% | -11.0% | -5.3% | +5.4% | -14.1% | 102% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +15% |
| 2023-11-09 Thursday | 1 | +15.5% | +1.4% | +0.2% | -3.5% | +5.2% | +10.7% | -5.6% | 80% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2023-08-09 Wednesday | 1 | +4.0% | +0.5% | -1.8% | +6.6% | +15.8% | +17.6% | -4.4% | 53% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -2% |
| 2023-05-10 Wednesday | -5.3% | +2.4% | -5.1% | +5.2% | +16.4% | +14.2% | -8.2% | 28% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2023-03-08 Wednesday | 1 | +27.5% | +2.9% | -2.9% | +2.7% | +22.3% | +19.7% | -7.5% | 80% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% |
| 2022-11-09 Wednesday | +10.7% | +7.0% | +15.4% | -7.4% | -18.0% | +19.8% | -10.0% | 46% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +29% | |
| 2022-08-09 Tuesday | +9.0% | +3.2% | +18.4% | +1.5% | -0.7% | +21.9% | +1.6% | 59% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2022-05-10 Tuesday | -27.8% | +0.1% | -10.9% | +15.2% | +12.3% | +8.9% | -13.1% | 55% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2022-03-09 Wednesday | +0.9% | -2.8% | -1.1% | -3.5% | +15.1% | +19.2% | -8.8% | 40% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +56% | |
| 2021-11-10 Wednesday | +9.9% | -0.4% | -0.2% | +0.3% | -15.4% | +3.4% | -23.2% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +60% | |
| 2021-08-11 Wednesday | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.9% | +5.0% | +4.7% | +25.7% | -2.1% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +54% | |
| 2021-05-13 Thursday | -27.9% | +3.1% | +12.1% | +1.3% | +2.9% | +24.6% | +2.8% | 37% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2021-03-10 Wednesday | 1 | -31.7% | +3.3% | -1.6% | +3.8% | -18.9% | +6.5% | -21.6% | 94% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% |
| 2020-11-10 Tuesday | -1.5% | -1.0% | -4.8% | +6.8% | +3.3% | +4.5% | -7.6% | 52% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +99% | |
| 2020-09-09 Wednesday | -1.1% | +1.3% | +0.6% | -3.1% | +6.3% | +12.2% | -8.8% | 56% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +110% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_VERX.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.