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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: IBTA has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, August 03, 2026
Next confirmed IBTA earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.36 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) expl. | -8.1% | 6 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
9
Avg reaction
-11.4%
Median reaction
-12.5%
Avg |move|
22.3%
Up rate
22%
Avg drift T-20
-0.8%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 9 | -0.8% | -6.1% | 11.6 | -15.6% / +18.7% | 44% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 9 | -0.2% | -1.4% | 6.7 | -11.8% / +9.8% | 44% |
| Overnight gap | 9 | -9.1% | -6.5% | 18.0 | -39.8% / +19.6% | 44% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 9 | -11.4% | -12.5% | 22.7 | -46.1% / +28.5% | 22% |
| Follow-through +5d | 9 | -1.3% | -3.2% | 11.3 | -12.2% / +19.2% | 33% |
| Follow-through +20d | 9 | +2.1% | +10.7% | 18.1 | -28.4% / +28.7% | 56% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 9 | +2.5% | +1.6% | 21.6 | -30.6% / +45.5% | 67% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 9 | -25.4% | -28.1% | 14.8 | -50.2% / +6.6% | 11% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday n<10 | 7 | -9.2% | -12.5% | 25.0 | 29% |
| Friday n<10 | 1 | -11.7% | -11.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 1 | -26.7% | -26.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up n<10 | 3 | +2.6% | -0.6% | 13.2 | 33% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | -9.5% | -18.1% | 22.9 | 25% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | -26.7% | -26.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
| Sideways n<10 | 1 | -46.1% | -46.1% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) n<10 | 6 | -8.1% | -12.1% | 26.6 | 33% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 3 | -18.2% | -12.5% | 8.6 | 0% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up n<10 | 3 | +7.3% | +9.8% | 10.5 | 67% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 4 | +0.4% | -0.3% | 7.8 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | -15.4% | -15.4% | 0.0 | 0% |
| Sideways n<10 | 1 | -15.6% | -15.6% | 0.0 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 21.2% | -0.6% | +2.7% | 0.03x |
| 2026-02-25 | 29.4% | +28.5% | +19.6% | 0.97x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 Wednesday | +18.7% | +2.7% | -0.6% | -12.2% | -10.8% | +9.4% | -23.0% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2026-02-25 Wednesday | -6.1% | +19.6% | +28.5% | -9.0% | +10.7% | +45.5% | +6.6% | 60% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -18% | |
| 2025-11-12 Wednesday | +5.4% | -19.1% | -23.7% | -2.5% | -11.5% | -16.8% | -32.8% | 52% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +65% | |
| 2025-08-13 Wednesday | -8.2% | -30.6% | -30.3% | +16.2% | +15.4% | -15.2% | -33.6% | 51% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -14% | |
| 2025-05-14 Wednesday | +9.8% | +7.8% | +20.2% | -12.2% | -28.4% | +25.1% | -15.4% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -8% | |
| 2025-02-26 Wednesday | -15.6% | -39.8% | -46.1% | +2.9% | +28.7% | -30.6% | -50.2% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -58% | |
| 2024-11-13 Wednesday | +10.3% | -16.7% | -12.5% | -3.2% | +12.2% | +2.8% | -19.4% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +37% | |
| 2024-08-13 Tuesday | -15.4% | -6.5% | -26.7% | +19.2% | +18.7% | +1.6% | -28.1% | 55% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2024-05-31 Friday | -6.6% | +0.6% | -11.7% | -11.1% | -16.4% | +0.6% | -32.9% | 42% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +21% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_IBTA.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.