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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: VRNS has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed VRNS earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.42 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -1.6% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.9% | 27 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday expl. | -8.5% | 9 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.1%
Median reaction
+2.7%
Avg |move|
9.6%
Up rate
63%
Avg drift T-20
+2.6%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.6% | +4.4% | 10.4 | -23.2% / +22.2% | 67% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.9% | +0.6% | 6.2 | -22.4% / +9.0% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.0% | +4.2% | 12.6 | -37.1% / +16.8% | 63% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.1% | +2.7% | 13.1 | -48.7% / +16.9% | 63% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 5.8 | -21.0% / +11.8% | 50% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.1% | +0.5% | 10.4 | -19.0% / +22.6% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.1% | +13.5% | 14.8 | -35.9% / +43.8% | 80% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -9.6% | -6.2% | 13.8 | -51.8% / +6.8% | 30% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 7 | +9.8% | +10.3% | 6.0 | 86% |
| Monday | 27 | +0.9% | +2.8% | 10.7 | 67% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | -6.5% | -5.1% | 14.4 | 33% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 9 | -8.5% | -7.4% | 16.6 | 44% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +4.1% | +6.7% | 9.0 | 76% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +2.2% | +3.5% | 8.7 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -1.6% | -5.6% | 11.1 | 25% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -2.3% | +0.3% | 10.7 | 62% |
| Mild Up | 12 | -4.9% | +0.5% | 18.6 | 58% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 13 | +5.2% | +6.5% | 8.6 | 85% |
| Medium (15-25) | 27 | -1.9% | +0.1% | 13.2 | 52% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -3.2% | +0.3% | 17.1 | 67% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 17 | +7.5% | +7.1% | 8.7 | 88% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +7.0% | +5.8% | 6.8 | 88% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +0.2% | -2.0% | 8.3 | 42% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -4.8% | +1.1% | 9.6 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -10.8% | -12.4% | 10.3 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 19.3% | +7.3% | +16.8% | 0.38x |
| 2026-02-03 | 29.6% | -10.8% | -12.7% | 0.36x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | +20.2% | +16.8% | +7.3% | +0.4% | +10.8% | +23.8% | +2.8% | 58% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +210% | |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | -19.3% | -12.7% | -10.8% | +10.9% | -0.8% | +6.5% | -24.4% | 60% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +146% | |
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | +9.6% | -37.1% | -48.7% | +9.3% | +0.4% | -35.9% | -51.8% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2025-07-29 Tuesday | +6.9% | +6.6% | +5.3% | -3.5% | +0.5% | +9.9% | -2.9% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +269% | |
| 2025-05-06 Tuesday | +16.4% | +3.6% | +2.3% | +1.3% | +10.3% | +14.3% | +1.0% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +121% | |
| 2025-02-04 Tuesday | +5.1% | -7.8% | -7.4% | -1.5% | -3.4% | -4.2% | -15.4% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2024-10-29 Tuesday | +6.8% | -8.1% | -10.7% | -3.1% | -4.9% | -3.1% | -17.4% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | +1.1% | +13.2% | +14.6% | -9.6% | +3.5% | +20.3% | -0.5% | 32% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +340% | |
| 2024-05-06 Monday | -6.1% | -1.0% | +0.9% | -2.0% | -7.8% | +4.6% | -7.8% | 27% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +67% | |
| 2024-02-05 Monday | +7.1% | +10.1% | +6.7% | +2.8% | +0.3% | +16.1% | -0.2% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +18% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | +3.8% | +4.7% | +6.8% | +1.0% | +19.7% | +29.0% | +0.2% | 37% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +204% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | +7.7% | +13.3% | +11.2% | -4.7% | -2.0% | +13.4% | +1.4% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -51% | |
| 2023-05-01 Monday | -10.7% | -2.0% | +0.1% | -0.3% | +9.8% | +13.0% | -3.8% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2023-02-06 Monday | +13.3% | +8.7% | +8.8% | -3.0% | -5.1% | +14.3% | +0.5% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2022-10-31 Monday | 1 | -0.7% | -29.0% | -35.5% | -3.9% | +20.0% | -17.8% | -41.7% | 63% | Mild Up / High (>25) | -14% |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | -16.8% | +8.4% | +9.7% | +11.8% | -2.0% | +26.4% | +5.0% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -9.7% | -9.6% | -12.2% | -21.0% | -13.8% | -8.3% | -36.0% | 58% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2022-02-07 Monday | 1 | -13.5% | +1.0% | +3.5% | +4.4% | +3.4% | +19.7% | -7.8% | 62% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% |
| 2021-11-01 Monday | +9.3% | -1.2% | -5.7% | +2.1% | -17.0% | -0.8% | -23.8% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +161% | |
| 2021-08-02 Monday | +3.6% | -2.1% | -3.3% | -1.1% | +17.1% | +13.6% | -8.1% | 28% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +67% | |
| 2021-05-03 Monday | -3.4% | -6.1% | -2.0% | -10.3% | -5.2% | +0.9% | -17.3% | 33% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +38% | |
| 2021-02-08 Monday | +5.6% | +6.0% | +10.1% | +7.2% | -16.1% | +23.4% | -17.5% | 37% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +183% | |
| 2020-10-26 Monday | +6.3% | +11.7% | +0.1% | -5.0% | -2.0% | +13.3% | -8.4% | 28% | Sideways / High (>25) | +148% | |
| 2020-08-03 Monday | +6.8% | +13.1% | +9.7% | -0.8% | +6.1% | +18.4% | +5.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +57% | |
| 2020-05-04 Monday | 1 | +22.2% | +11.1% | +11.0% | +4.1% | +21.7% | +36.0% | +2.4% | 69% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +5% |
| 2020-02-10 Monday | +14.2% | -2.6% | -3.5% | +3.3% | -19.0% | +1.1% | -25.9% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2019-10-28 Monday | +4.9% | +12.1% | +13.9% | -0.3% | +8.3% | +24.7% | +6.8% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +53% | |
| 2019-07-29 Monday | +12.0% | +11.7% | +2.8% | -3.9% | -2.4% | +15.3% | -4.5% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2019-04-29 Monday | +12.1% | +11.4% | +6.5% | +1.5% | -6.6% | +15.8% | -0.9% | 27% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -4% | |
| 2019-02-11 Monday | +21.4% | -21.8% | -13.7% | -2.1% | +12.4% | -2.5% | -22.6% | 35% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +61% | |
| 2018-10-29 Monday | -15.2% | +1.5% | -3.8% | +0.4% | -5.4% | +5.1% | -16.9% | 47% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1855% | |
| 2018-07-30 Monday | -3.5% | -19.3% | -16.9% | +9.2% | +17.2% | +1.8% | -25.4% | 38% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -63% | |
| 2018-04-30 Monday | +8.7% | +1.8% | +3.0% | +4.3% | +14.6% | +18.8% | -4.2% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2018-02-12 Monday | +3.5% | -0.7% | +0.5% | +3.2% | +6.5% | +11.4% | -7.1% | 33% | Sideways / High (>25) | +25% | |
| 2017-11-02 Thursday | -3.2% | +10.0% | +15.9% | -3.3% | +7.5% | +27.6% | +6.1% | 18% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1604% | |
| 2017-08-03 Thursday | +0.9% | +5.2% | +2.7% | -7.5% | +0.7% | +6.5% | -5.3% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +112% | |
| 2017-05-04 Thursday | +2.9% | +9.7% | +10.3% | +0.6% | +3.4% | +16.0% | +5.8% | 10% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +24% | |
| 2017-02-08 Wednesday | +9.8% | +2.0% | -5.1% | -4.5% | -5.4% | +2.0% | -16.7% | 22% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2016-11-03 Thursday | -3.0% | +3.1% | 0.0% | +4.0% | -5.5% | +11.1% | -9.9% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +72% | |
| 2016-08-09 Tuesday | +3.8% | +5.8% | +5.1% | +0.6% | +10.4% | +16.5% | +0.5% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +28% | |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | +5.2% | +6.1% | +10.4% | +1.2% | +22.6% | +36.5% | +5.8% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2016-02-11 Thursday | 2 | -23.2% | +15.3% | +16.9% | +6.8% | +12.8% | +43.8% | +4.9% | 90% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +18% |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | -6.1% | +9.0% | +9.2% | -4.3% | -0.8% | +17.0% | -1.3% | 57% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +42% | |
| 2015-08-06 Thursday | -11.9% | +11.9% | +13.8% | -2.2% | -15.1% | +20.3% | -7.3% | 44% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2015-05-06 Wednesday | +1.9% | -34.8% | -24.8% | -4.0% | +2.3% | -18.6% | -35.6% | 47% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -7% | |
| 2015-02-17 Tuesday | +11.5% | -4.5% | -18.8% | +0.3% | -2.9% | -4.5% | -23.2% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +38% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_VRNS.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.