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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: ASX has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed ASX earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.19 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.4% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.0% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +1.1% | 19 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
31
Avg reaction
+0.6%
Median reaction
+0.7%
Avg |move|
2.3%
Up rate
58%
Avg drift T-20
+4.1%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 31 | +4.1% | +3.8% | 12.3 | -18.8% / +41.1% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 31 | +1.6% | +2.4% | 5.8 | -10.1% / +17.3% | 65% |
| Overnight gap | 31 | +0.7% | +0.8% | 2.2 | -4.2% / +5.5% | 65% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 31 | +0.6% | +0.7% | 3.0 | -7.2% / +7.4% | 58% |
| Follow-through +5d | 31 | +1.2% | +1.6% | 5.1 | -9.6% / +12.3% | 65% |
| Follow-through +20d | 31 | +1.0% | +0.6% | 10.4 | -19.1% / +29.3% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 31 | +9.3% | +6.4% | 8.7 | -2.8% / +34.4% | 97% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 31 | -7.4% | -4.6% | 6.5 | -21.8% / +0.2% | 3% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 19 | +1.1% | +1.1% | 3.4 | 58% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 7 | +0.5% | +0.2% | 1.5 | 71% |
| Friday n<10 | 3 | -0.2% | +1.3% | 2.7 | 67% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 2 | -1.8% | -1.8% | 1.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 6 | +3.6% | +2.7% | 2.5 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 6 | +0.6% | +0.9% | 0.9 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 11 | +0.3% | -0.2% | 2.7 | 45% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +0.2% | +1.1% | 2.3 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -3.4% | -2.8% | 2.9 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | +1.0% | +0.7% | 2.8 | 61% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 4 | +0.6% | +0.4% | 2.2 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | -1.5% | -0.5% | 3.7 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 6 | +8.1% | +4.8% | 13.5 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 11 | +8.0% | +5.2% | 12.9 | 82% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +3.1% | -1.2% | 9.3 | 40% |
| Sideways n<10 | 6 | +0.7% | +3.2% | 7.0 | 67% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -10.1% | -7.4% | 6.2 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 10.7% | +2.7% | +1.6% | 0.25x |
| 2026-02-05 | 16.3% | +3.1% | -0.7% | 0.19x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +41.1% | +1.6% | +2.7% | +8.8% | +29.3% | +34.4% | -2.3% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2026-02-05 Thursday | +15.0% | -0.7% | +3.1% | +12.3% | +1.1% | +24.8% | -1.2% | 37% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | +34.9% | +5.2% | +6.5% | -4.0% | -6.6% | +9.0% | -11.2% | 52% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | -7.8% | +5.5% | +5.4% | -1.0% | -0.4% | +7.2% | +0.2% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -23% | |
| 2025-04-30 Wednesday | 1 | -2.9% | +2.4% | -0.3% | +4.6% | +9.4% | +17.4% | -0.6% | 70% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -17% |
| 2025-02-13 Thursday | 1 | +4.1% | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.6% | -11.2% | +5.2% | -13.9% | 49% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -15% |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | -1.4% | +2.6% | +3.4% | +2.7% | -1.6% | +6.4% | -2.6% | 30% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -11% | |
| 2024-07-25 Thursday | -7.4% | -1.0% | -0.2% | -7.9% | -7.7% | +0.9% | -21.8% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2024-04-25 Thursday | -7.7% | -0.7% | -0.5% | +0.6% | +8.8% | +11.3% | -2.6% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -12% | |
| 2024-02-01 Thursday | +5.2% | -0.8% | -2.1% | +6.4% | +11.8% | +10.9% | -2.8% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2023-10-26 Thursday | -1.2% | +1.6% | +1.1% | +4.8% | +14.7% | +18.0% | -0.9% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -2% | |
| 2023-07-27 Thursday | +0.9% | +2.0% | +3.7% | -9.3% | -10.5% | +4.1% | -11.1% | 33% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2023-04-27 Thursday | -13.0% | +0.6% | +1.2% | +1.9% | +10.2% | +11.7% | -1.2% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2023-02-09 Thursday | +5.1% | -1.2% | -0.4% | -2.5% | -1.8% | +2.6% | -6.4% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | +3.8% | +0.6% | +2.1% | -5.1% | +20.1% | +25.8% | -4.4% | 56% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +8% | |
| 2022-07-28 Thursday | +11.1% | -1.0% | -0.2% | +2.2% | +2.9% | +8.5% | -3.7% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | 1 | -4.3% | -4.2% | -7.2% | +2.0% | +7.6% | +0.1% | -10.9% | 53% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +24% |
| 2022-02-10 Thursday | -3.7% | -1.9% | -3.8% | +1.5% | -3.6% | +0.4% | -12.3% | 44% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +121% | |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | -7.9% | -0.6% | -1.5% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +7.8% | -3.0% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | +8.6% | +0.6% | +1.5% | +8.1% | +0.6% | +10.1% | -5.6% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2021-04-28 Wednesday | +10.0% | -0.7% | +0.2% | -9.6% | -9.4% | +0.3% | -20.8% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2021-02-04 Thursday | +12.9% | +4.7% | +7.4% | +10.8% | -5.8% | +24.0% | -3.9% | 54% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +61% | |
| 2020-10-30 Friday | +13.4% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +3.9% | +14.9% | +18.4% | -0.9% | 31% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +14% | |
| 2020-07-31 Friday | +2.7% | -4.0% | -4.0% | -1.7% | -10.8% | -2.8% | -16.8% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +36% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | +19.0% | +0.2% | -2.2% | -1.4% | -7.4% | +3.6% | -12.4% | 60% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +14% | |
| 2020-02-07 Friday | -7.3% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +1.6% | -12.7% | +5.3% | -13.2% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | +8.7% | +2.2% | +1.6% | +1.6% | -2.0% | +5.8% | -1.6% | 14% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | +5.8% | +1.8% | +0.2% | -0.7% | +2.7% | +6.2% | -4.6% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -25% | |
| 2019-04-30 Tuesday | +2.2% | +0.9% | -0.9% | -1.8% | -19.1% | +1.8% | -21.1% | 33% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -51% | |
| 2019-01-30 Wednesday | +4.8% | +0.8% | +1.5% | +2.5% | +1.0% | +5.3% | -4.8% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -5% | |
| 2018-10-30 Tuesday | -18.8% | +1.5% | -2.8% | +2.4% | +5.2% | +4.1% | -10.2% | 37% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_ASX.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.