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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: PGY has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed PGY earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.69 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -16.7% | 1 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.5% | 13 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday expl. | +1.0% | 7 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
15
Avg reaction
+0.9%
Median reaction
-1.4%
Avg |move|
6.8%
Up rate
47%
Avg drift T-20
+12.7%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 15 | +12.7% | +9.9% | 24.9 | -45.5% / +66.2% | 67% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 15 | +6.9% | +5.1% | 13.8 | -28.1% / +32.2% | 80% |
| Overnight gap | 15 | +2.1% | +1.4% | 3.3 | -1.6% / +11.3% | 67% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 15 | +0.9% | -1.4% | 9.2 | -16.7% / +23.3% | 47% |
| Follow-through +5d | 15 | -6.6% | -9.9% | 13.4 | -24.9% / +22.8% | 27% |
| Follow-through +20d | 15 | -6.3% | -4.2% | 23.4 | -47.9% / +39.0% | 33% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 15 | +18.4% | +7.8% | 17.5 | +3.1% / +58.5% | 100% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 15 | -23.1% | -21.6% | 14.3 | -49.3% / +5.3% | 7% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | +9.2% | +8.7% | 11.3 | 67% |
| Thursday n<10 | 7 | +1.0% | -1.4% | 6.5 | 43% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 2 | -0.8% | -0.8% | 5.6 | 50% |
| Monday n<10 | 2 | -1.4% | -1.4% | 2.1 | 50% |
| Friday n<10 | 1 | -16.7% | -16.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | +14.7% | +14.7% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 2 | +2.8% | +2.8% | 2.1 | 100% |
| Strong Up n<10 | 7 | +1.6% | -2.0% | 10.1 | 29% |
| Sideways n<10 | 4 | -0.3% | -1.4% | 3.5 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 1 | -16.7% | -16.7% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 13 | +1.5% | -1.4% | 9.7 | 46% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 2 | -2.9% | -2.9% | 3.5 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 1 | +24.9% | +24.9% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Strong Up n<10 | 7 | +19.9% | +26.7% | 14.9 | 86% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 1 | +9.2% | +9.2% | 0.0 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 4 | +7.2% | +4.0% | 39.8 | 50% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 2 | -5.6% | -5.6% | 4.2 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 9.9% | -2.0% | +2.1% | 0.20x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 Thursday | +29.8% | +2.1% | -2.0% | -10.5% | -4.2% | +5.0% | -21.6% | 63% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2026-02-09 Monday | 2 | -45.5% | +2.7% | -3.6% | -10.1% | -17.2% | +9.3% | -25.9% | 111% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-11-10 Monday | 1 | -1.4% | +0.0% | +0.7% | -19.7% | -10.6% | +6.3% | -26.6% | 84% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +55% |
| 2025-08-07 Thursday | 2 | +30.0% | +5.2% | -6.4% | +16.9% | +30.0% | +29.2% | -9.3% | 99% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -5% |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +26.7% | +5.5% | +23.3% | +8.6% | +20.8% | +58.5% | +5.3% | 81% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +49% |
| 2025-02-13 Thursday | 3 | +66.2% | -1.6% | +5.0% | -5.7% | -31.3% | +31.1% | -37.4% | 110% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -47% |
| 2024-11-12 Tuesday | 4 | +0.3% | +2.9% | -6.4% | -15.3% | -3.8% | +6.7% | -24.6% | 189% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +60% |
| 2024-08-09 Friday | 2 | +9.2% | -1.6% | -16.7% | +0.7% | +1.5% | +7.2% | -17.8% | 94% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -64% |
| 2024-05-09 Thursday | 1 | +9.9% | -0.3% | +0.6% | -7.0% | -2.6% | +3.1% | -13.9% | 92% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +23% |
| 2024-02-21 Wednesday | 2 | +16.9% | -0.7% | +8.7% | -6.0% | -41.3% | +20.8% | -45.2% | 80% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -11% |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | 4 | -2.0% | 0.0% | -3.4% | -9.9% | +4.3% | +6.2% | -19.9% | 105% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +100% |
| 2023-08-10 Thursday | 4 | +24.9% | +11.3% | +14.7% | -24.9% | -15.1% | +22.1% | -21.6% | 114% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -69% |
| 2023-05-16 Tuesday | 2 | -9.9% | +0.5% | +4.9% | +22.8% | +39.0% | +55.5% | -2.8% | 88% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -1470% |
| 2023-02-15 Wednesday | 1 | +39.3% | +3.7% | -4.4% | -17.1% | -16.3% | +6.7% | -35.2% | 85% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +71% |
| 2022-11-10 Thursday | 3 | -3.4% | +1.4% | -1.4% | -22.5% | -47.9% | +7.8% | -49.3% | 102% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -- |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_PGY.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.