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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: QRVO habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed QRVO earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 4–4 trading days before the report (median 4).
Projected watch window: Jul 22 → Jul 22 · most likely around Wed Jul 22.
Projected watch window: Jul 22 → Jul 22 · most likely around Wed Jul 22.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Tuesday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 33% of the last 3 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.40 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -3.2% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.1% | 32 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday expl. | -3.5% | 9 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.3%
Median reaction
-0.1%
Avg |move|
6.5%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
+2.3%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 45 | +2.3% | +1.2% | 9.6 | -13.5% / +27.4% | 56% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.7% | +1.8% | 4.8 | -7.3% / +13.5% | 63% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.6% | -1.3% | 7.7 | -22.4% / +13.6% | 43% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 9.1 | -27.3% / +23.2% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -1.2% | -0.6% | 4.8 | -14.0% / +8.8% | 43% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.1% | +2.7% | 10.2 | -17.3% / +34.0% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +8.3% | +6.9% | 11.6 | -22.4% / +33.1% | 78% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.8% | -8.5% | 10.0 | -36.1% / +12.9% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 7 | +4.0% | -0.6% | 11.8 | 43% |
| Wednesday | 29 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 7.3 | 52% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 9 | -3.5% | +0.3% | 10.9 | 56% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -6.5% | -6.5% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 6 | +3.4% | -0.5% | 9.0 | 33% |
| Sideways | 14 | +0.4% | +0.4% | 7.5 | 57% |
| Strong Up | 16 | -0.8% | -0.1% | 11.2 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -2.6% | +0.3% | 6.2 | 60% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -3.2% | -4.0% | 6.2 | 40% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 10 | +1.7% | -0.1% | 10.0 | 50% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +0.2% | +0.0% | 6.7 | 50% |
| Medium (15-25) | 32 | -1.1% | +0.0% | 9.0 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +9.0% | +6.2% | 9.7 | 88% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 6 | +3.5% | +2.9% | 5.0 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 4 | +2.1% | -2.4% | 10.3 | 25% |
| Sideways | 14 | -3.2% | -3.5% | 5.8 | 36% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -4.9% | -3.6% | 6.0 | 40% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | POSITIVE | Preliminary fiscal Q2 2026 revenue ~$1.058B (above $1.025B +/-$50M guide), non-GAAP EPS $2.22 (above $2.00 +/-$0.25); issued alongside the ~$22B Skyworks merger agreement | 4d | +5.7% | -2.0% | -3.9% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 4–4 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=1) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 11.5% | -7.7% | -3.0% | 0.67x |
| 2026-01-27 | 12.0% | -6.8% | -7.5% | 0.57x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | +23.9% | -3.0% | -7.7% | +0.9% | +17.8% | +13.6% | -10.3% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +39% | |
| 2026-01-27 Tuesday | -3.8% | -7.5% | -6.8% | +2.1% | +6.7% | +4.0% | -8.6% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | POSITIVE | +1.3% | -2.6% | -6.5% | -0.8% | +0.8% | -1.1% | -15.9% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
| 2025-07-29 Tuesday | -0.3% | +7.8% | +2.2% | -1.8% | +6.8% | +11.1% | -3.7% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +46% | |
| 2025-04-29 Tuesday | 3 | -13.5% | +8.5% | +14.4% | -1.9% | +5.9% | +27.9% | +7.1% | 117% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +42% |
| 2025-01-28 Tuesday | 1 | +19.8% | -1.8% | +0.3% | -4.8% | -13.4% | +3.1% | -13.4% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +33% |
| 2024-10-29 Tuesday | +0.7% | -22.4% | -27.3% | -1.7% | -6.7% | -22.4% | -35.3% | 19% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | +1.4% | +1.7% | +0.3% | -14.0% | -5.1% | +2.1% | -16.3% | 38% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -2.6% | -8.9% | -14.5% | +0.4% | +1.5% | -8.0% | -15.7% | 36% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-01-31 Wednesday | -8.4% | +5.3% | +6.0% | +4.8% | +8.3% | +15.1% | +2.6% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +27% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | -6.7% | +2.7% | -2.7% | +2.9% | +12.9% | +10.5% | -8.2% | 19% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +35% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +8.7% | +5.5% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +0.6% | +5.7% | -8.8% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +126% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -3.7% | +9.2% | +0.4% | -1.5% | +4.7% | +9.8% | -4.7% | 17% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +99% | |
| 2023-02-01 Wednesday | +27.4% | -2.8% | -5.8% | -1.0% | -5.4% | -2.8% | -13.5% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | -3.3% | -5.3% | -2.1% | +2.7% | +17.6% | +18.6% | -5.6% | 39% | Sideways / High (>25) | +5% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +9.1% | -6.8% | +1.6% | +0.4% | -17.3% | +5.1% | -16.7% | 37% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | +1.2% | -5.1% | -8.8% | -7.3% | +4.2% | -4.5% | -17.7% | 40% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-02-02 Wednesday | -10.5% | -6.9% | -10.3% | +6.2% | +2.4% | -2.7% | -12.9% | 42% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +8.1% | -10.3% | -13.3% | -0.1% | -3.4% | -9.1% | -20.2% | 23% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | +1.0% | +1.9% | +0.5% | -2.6% | -4.5% | +3.9% | -8.4% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | -5.8% | +0.5% | +1.2% | -10.5% | -2.0% | +3.2% | -10.1% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-02-03 Wednesday | +4.0% | -5.7% | -4.7% | +0.3% | -1.4% | +3.9% | -8.2% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -0.7% | +3.9% | +9.7% | +1.1% | +8.5% | +21.1% | +3.2% | 31% | Sideways / High (>25) | +13% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +4.3% | +5.1% | +11.6% | +3.9% | +2.2% | +18.0% | +5.1% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | +15.9% | +7.0% | +2.2% | -4.1% | +12.3% | +17.2% | -7.5% | 59% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2020-01-29 Wednesday | -3.1% | +8.0% | -0.7% | -0.4% | -15.2% | +8.7% | -17.3% | 31% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2019-10-31 Thursday | +11.0% | +13.6% | +20.2% | +4.2% | +7.2% | +31.6% | +12.9% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2019-08-01 Thursday | +3.4% | -0.6% | -0.6% | +1.6% | +0.9% | +6.1% | -5.1% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2019-05-07 Tuesday | -2.1% | +5.9% | +3.4% | -4.4% | -16.7% | +6.8% | -20.6% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2019-02-07 Thursday | +10.1% | -8.6% | -3.0% | +0.2% | +6.3% | +7.1% | -10.5% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -3.6% | +2.1% | +6.8% | -10.5% | -16.8% | +7.3% | -17.0% | 45% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | +6.1% | -3.9% | +2.7% | +1.4% | -4.9% | +5.2% | -4.9% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +26% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +3.8% | -0.3% | +3.4% | +4.5% | +4.6% | +12.4% | -4.7% | 33% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2018-01-31 Wednesday | +4.2% | +10.5% | +16.1% | -6.3% | -5.7% | +18.8% | +3.3% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | +3.2% | -3.7% | -0.2% | +8.8% | +3.1% | +9.1% | -4.4% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | +2.8% | -0.8% | +0.0% | +3.2% | +9.3% | +9.4% | -3.2% | 19% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | -0.4% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -0.3% | +18.0% | +16.6% | -3.9% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-02-01 Wednesday | +22.0% | -5.0% | -1.9% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +6.4% | -5.3% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2016-11-03 Thursday | +2.5% | -14.8% | -10.0% | +0.9% | -1.1% | -1.4% | -14.9% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -8% | |
| 2016-08-02 Tuesday | +18.6% | -9.7% | -10.3% | -1.1% | +4.7% | -4.8% | -14.6% | 32% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | -11.9% | +7.6% | +4.8% | -1.4% | +14.6% | +20.7% | +0.0% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2016-02-04 Thursday | -13.1% | -5.6% | -4.0% | -7.3% | +34.0% | +31.1% | -14.1% | 75% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | -0.4% | +12.2% | +23.2% | -8.2% | +7.2% | +33.1% | +11.1% | 55% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | -12.2% | -13.9% | -14.2% | -9.3% | -12.8% | -11.5% | -36.1% | 39% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2015-05-06 Wednesday | -5.2% | +12.4% | +9.4% | -0.8% | +7.6% | +25.6% | +6.0% | 40% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +28% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | -- | -3.7% | +0.3% | -9.8% | -5.6% | +0.5% | -16.3% | -- | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +24% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_QRVO.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.