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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: HLIT has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Monday, July 27, 2026
Next confirmed HLIT earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.05 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -0.9% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.8% | 25 |
| Earnings weekday | Monday | +0.7% | 36 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+1.0%
Median reaction
+0.1%
Avg |move|
10.0%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
+1.9%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.9% | +0.5% | 13.0 | -28.0% / +43.1% | 54% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.7% | +0.4% | 5.0 | -9.9% / +12.6% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -0.4% | -0.5% | 11.5 | -26.2% / +26.1% | 48% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +1.0% | +0.1% | 12.4 | -25.1% / +25.4% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.3% | -0.9% | 5.8 | -14.2% / +13.0% | 46% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.9% | +0.9% | 10.2 | -20.7% / +30.1% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.7% | +7.0% | 16.0 | -19.5% / +55.9% | 78% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -10.0% | -11.2% | 11.5 | -33.2% / +11.7% | 24% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 2 | +6.2% | +6.2% | 4.6 | 100% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 6 | +1.7% | -1.5% | 9.1 | 50% |
| Monday | 36 | +0.7% | -0.6% | 12.9 | 47% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 2 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 15.7 | 50% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +11.5% | +10.9% | 10.7 | 80% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +1.8% | +0.6% | 14.5 | 56% |
| Sideways | 14 | +0.6% | +0.2% | 8.6 | 57% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -0.9% | -1.3% | 11.1 | 33% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | -5.5% | -8.0% | 10.4 | 12% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 25 | +1.8% | +0.3% | 12.8 | 52% |
| Low (<15) | 15 | +1.1% | 0.0% | 12.9 | 47% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | -2.5% | -2.5% | 8.7 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +8.6% | +5.9% | 16.1 | 75% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +3.5% | +1.2% | 12.6 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +1.1% | +3.1% | 5.8 | 60% |
| Sideways | 14 | -2.0% | -2.6% | 12.3 | 36% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -5.0% | -7.9% | 4.6 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 17.8% | +0.9% | +13.4% | 0.05x |
| 2026-02-19 | 32.6% | +1.6% | +11.8% | 0.05x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 Monday | 1 | +28.9% | +13.4% | +0.9% | -3.6% | +3.5% | +37.8% | -6.6% | 44% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +48% |
| 2026-02-19 Thursday | +5.5% | +11.8% | +1.6% | -3.4% | -15.1% | +13.5% | -17.0% | 37% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2025-11-03 Monday | +0.3% | +5.8% | -2.2% | -3.3% | -7.3% | +7.7% | -18.1% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +166% | |
| 2025-07-28 Monday | -3.7% | -14.1% | -4.6% | -1.0% | +7.2% | +3.0% | -14.7% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +322% | |
| 2025-04-28 Monday | 1 | -4.1% | -2.4% | +1.3% | -5.3% | -3.1% | +6.0% | -6.2% | 60% | Sideways / High (>25) | +112% |
| 2025-02-10 Monday | -10.6% | -23.6% | -15.3% | +10.9% | +10.1% | -2.5% | -24.3% | 20% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2024-10-28 Monday | +1.7% | -26.2% | -25.1% | +0.2% | +11.6% | -13.5% | -29.9% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2024-07-29 Monday | -0.2% | +26.0% | +21.2% | -7.8% | +1.7% | +30.3% | +9.4% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +105% | |
| 2024-04-29 Monday | 1 | -28.0% | +26.1% | +14.3% | +0.9% | +11.9% | +29.0% | +11.7% | 58% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +100% |
| 2024-01-29 Monday | -10.0% | +0.2% | +1.8% | +7.6% | +11.1% | +21.8% | -3.3% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2023-10-30 Monday | +3.1% | -4.3% | +10.9% | +2.2% | +1.3% | +17.8% | -5.7% | 51% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -100% | |
| 2023-07-31 Monday | -7.7% | -22.6% | -22.1% | -8.5% | -11.7% | -19.5% | -33.2% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -10% | |
| 2023-05-08 Monday | -13.0% | +10.2% | +20.0% | +1.9% | +11.3% | +34.1% | +3.3% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +32% | |
| 2023-01-30 Monday | +8.2% | -8.8% | -7.2% | +9.0% | +0.1% | +7.0% | -9.5% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2022-10-31 Monday | +19.2% | +1.0% | -10.2% | -2.7% | +6.6% | +2.3% | -16.4% | 31% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +25% | |
| 2022-08-01 Monday | +26.2% | +5.0% | +0.3% | +1.9% | +1.6% | +8.2% | -1.5% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +77% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -7.9% | +13.3% | +12.9% | -9.4% | -0.8% | +16.2% | +0.5% | 34% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +96% | |
| 2022-01-31 Monday | -8.5% | -8.9% | -14.3% | -1.5% | -2.1% | -8.0% | -21.6% | 40% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% | |
| 2021-11-01 Monday | +8.4% | +10.4% | +12.5% | +2.9% | +2.4% | +24.6% | +10.4% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +162% | |
| 2021-08-02 Monday | +5.1% | +11.2% | +23.0% | -7.6% | -13.9% | +24.4% | +5.1% | 36% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3596% | |
| 2021-05-03 Monday | +0.4% | -2.0% | -13.1% | 0.0% | +0.6% | -1.6% | -17.5% | 56% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2021-02-01 Monday | +6.6% | +6.6% | +0.1% | -1.4% | +3.5% | +6.6% | -7.0% | 35% | Sideways / High (>25) | +30% | |
| 2020-10-26 Monday | +27.5% | -4.5% | -5.1% | -6.5% | +2.0% | -0.9% | -14.2% | 43% | Sideways / High (>25) | +158% | |
| 2020-08-03 Monday | +13.1% | +15.7% | +24.9% | -6.5% | -15.9% | +31.1% | +0.5% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +55% | |
| 2020-04-27 Monday | +12.3% | -9.0% | -13.7% | -0.7% | -0.3% | -6.5% | -24.2% | 56% | Strong Up / High (>25) | -94% | |
| 2020-02-03 Monday | -4.8% | -6.2% | -3.3% | -4.8% | -15.4% | +3.9% | -20.0% | 37% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +60% | |
| 2019-10-28 Monday | +0.6% | +9.5% | +17.5% | +2.2% | +5.9% | +26.4% | +8.8% | 40% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2019-07-29 Monday | 1 | +43.1% | +0.1% | -7.9% | -2.2% | -11.6% | +0.8% | -19.0% | 80% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +43% |
| 2019-04-29 Monday | +4.1% | -10.1% | +0.3% | +1.8% | -4.6% | +3.9% | -11.2% | 12% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2019-02-04 Monday | +11.6% | -9.3% | -8.0% | +7.8% | +12.3% | +6.3% | -16.3% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +110% | |
| 2018-10-29 Monday | +1.5% | -3.0% | -1.3% | +10.0% | +1.6% | +13.5% | -16.5% | 42% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +220% | |
| 2018-07-30 Monday | +11.1% | -7.8% | -2.5% | +13.0% | +19.6% | +19.7% | -10.0% | 37% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +233% | |
| 2018-04-30 Monday | -2.7% | +9.6% | +8.2% | -7.6% | -2.5% | +16.4% | -8.2% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +82% | |
| 2018-02-28 Wednesday | -19.2% | -2.6% | +15.5% | +5.7% | +11.4% | +31.4% | -4.3% | 58% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -100% | |
| 2017-10-30 Monday | -6.3% | +8.5% | +25.4% | +4.0% | +18.9% | +55.9% | +6.8% | 50% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +88% | |
| 2017-07-31 Monday | -21.9% | -3.7% | 0.0% | -4.2% | -20.7% | +3.7% | -22.4% | 44% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2017-05-01 Monday | -2.5% | -16.4% | -8.1% | -5.2% | -4.3% | -7.8% | -16.4% | 44% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -169% | |
| 2017-02-28 Tuesday | +6.9% | +2.8% | +9.3% | +1.7% | -2.5% | +14.4% | -0.9% | 44% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2016-11-09 Wednesday | -3.8% | -14.0% | -15.9% | +8.9% | +13.3% | 0.0% | -29.0% | 51% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -140% | |
| 2016-08-09 Tuesday | +7.0% | +5.3% | +17.2% | +4.0% | +30.1% | +55.5% | +5.3% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +100% | |
| 2016-05-10 Tuesday | +3.1% | -3.9% | -6.6% | -14.2% | -3.5% | -1.5% | -24.6% | 34% | Sideways / Low (<15) | -340% | |
| 2016-02-16 Tuesday | -0.3% | -0.6% | -5.7% | -4.5% | -5.4% | +6.9% | -14.2% | 52% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +250% | |
| 2015-10-27 Tuesday | -1.2% | -0.3% | +2.6% | +1.9% | -6.8% | +5.3% | -11.2% | 45% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +100% | |
| 2015-07-27 Monday | -9.4% | +0.1% | -7.0% | -1.3% | -9.1% | +0.3% | -16.5% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2015-04-28 Tuesday | +0.7% | -12.1% | -6.6% | -2.6% | -1.4% | +0.5% | -12.1% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2015-01-29 Thursday | -3.1% | +4.9% | +10.7% | +1.6% | +2.1% | +15.3% | +2.8% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +100% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_HLIT.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.