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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: MANH has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed MANH earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.09 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.6% | 6 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.1% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +0.6% | 41 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.2%
Median reaction
+0.1%
Avg |move|
7.7%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
+2.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.5% | +2.6% | 8.4 | -15.5% / +22.0% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +0.3% | +0.5% | 4.9 | -12.8% / +9.8% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.9% | +3.0% | 8.1 | -24.5% / +20.8% | 67% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.2% | +0.1% | 9.2 | -24.5% / +17.9% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.1% | +1.1% | 6.2 | -17.0% / +16.6% | 61% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.8% | +1.7% | 8.4 | -20.3% / +26.7% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +9.0% | +8.4% | 11.9 | -19.4% / +51.3% | 83% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.2% | -5.9% | 10.2 | -42.4% / +7.1% | 28% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 41 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 9.4 | 54% |
| Thursday n<10 | 5 | -3.3% | -5.8% | 6.5 | 20% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +4.5% | +5.9% | 7.2 | 71% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -0.5% | -4.4% | 10.3 | 38% |
| Mild Up | 13 | -1.5% | -2.6% | 8.5 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -2.6% | -2.5% | 5.4 | 33% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | -3.1% | +1.3% | 12.6 | 60% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 15 | +1.7% | -2.3% | 8.8 | 47% |
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | -0.1% | +1.3% | 9.5 | 57% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 8 | -1.8% | -0.1% | 8.7 | 38% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 14 | +6.1% | +5.8% | 7.8 | 79% |
| Mild Up | 13 | +5.6% | +4.7% | 7.1 | 69% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +2.5% | +1.8% | 2.0 | 100% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +0.8% | -2.6% | 6.0 | 38% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -10.8% | -10.5% | 3.4 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 16.5% | +5.9% | +10.5% | 0.36x |
| 2026-01-27 | 15.4% | -5.1% | +5.6% | 0.33x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 Tuesday | -3.2% | +10.5% | +5.9% | -1.8% | -5.2% | +10.5% | -7.8% | 42% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2026-01-27 Tuesday | -3.8% | +5.6% | -5.1% | -15.8% | -16.0% | +5.9% | -24.7% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-10-21 Tuesday | -4.2% | -2.9% | -5.0% | -4.4% | -11.5% | -1.1% | -17.6% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2025-07-22 Tuesday | +5.2% | +20.8% | +7.4% | +3.5% | -1.0% | +21.9% | +0.6% | 19% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2025-04-22 Tuesday | 1 | -8.8% | +10.0% | +6.0% | +2.5% | +11.6% | +21.6% | +3.6% | 73% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +16% |
| 2025-01-28 Tuesday | +5.7% | -24.5% | -24.5% | -11.8% | -20.3% | -19.4% | -42.4% | 23% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-10-22 Tuesday | +2.2% | -4.2% | -7.2% | +2.2% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -10.5% | 21% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2024-07-23 Tuesday | -6.4% | +9.5% | +10.5% | +2.1% | +3.0% | +15.9% | +3.3% | 33% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2024-04-23 Tuesday | -7.2% | -9.6% | -10.5% | -0.1% | +9.4% | +0.2% | -11.1% | 17% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +18% | |
| 2024-01-30 Tuesday | +3.9% | +14.2% | +8.4% | +2.0% | +4.7% | +15.7% | +3.7% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +29% | |
| 2023-10-24 Tuesday | -1.9% | -3.4% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +15.7% | +18.6% | -3.5% | 32% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2023-07-25 Tuesday | +3.8% | +0.9% | -2.5% | +1.6% | +0.9% | +2.0% | -5.3% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% | |
| 2023-04-25 Tuesday | +3.0% | +8.7% | +8.5% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +17.7% | +7.0% | 19% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2023-02-02 Thursday | +15.1% | +8.6% | +8.0% | -4.1% | -1.8% | +14.3% | +1.7% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +63% | |
| 2022-10-25 Tuesday | +1.8% | -10.2% | -11.4% | -0.6% | +3.7% | -2.8% | -19.8% | 38% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +15% | |
| 2022-07-26 Tuesday | -1.8% | +4.4% | +17.9% | +1.4% | +5.1% | +33.6% | +4.0% | 38% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | -7.1% | +0.3% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -11.7% | +4.2% | -13.8% | 34% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +33% | |
| 2022-02-01 Tuesday | -12.1% | +0.5% | -4.9% | -0.5% | +6.9% | +1.8% | -8.0% | 40% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +10.9% | +2.3% | +5.7% | +3.1% | -10.8% | +11.0% | -6.6% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | +0.0% | +6.5% | +7.6% | +4.9% | +4.3% | +15.5% | +4.7% | 20% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +41% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | +10.4% | +3.7% | +12.2% | -6.3% | -7.3% | +14.4% | -2.4% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2021-02-02 Tuesday | +12.9% | +7.6% | +2.4% | +16.6% | +0.6% | +25.6% | -2.0% | 25% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +39% | |
| 2020-10-22 Thursday | +11.5% | -5.3% | -5.8% | -10.4% | -2.8% | +0.6% | -19.1% | 28% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +30% | |
| 2020-07-23 Thursday | +5.0% | +5.0% | -0.2% | +1.4% | -0.8% | +5.0% | -5.0% | 39% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2020-04-21 Tuesday | 3 | +22.0% | +9.9% | +11.5% | +15.6% | +26.7% | +51.3% | +4.8% | 97% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +23% |
| 2020-02-04 Tuesday | +9.3% | -1.1% | -12.2% | +0.4% | -12.1% | +0.0% | -26.9% | 18% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2019-10-22 Tuesday | -8.1% | +7.9% | +0.2% | +4.0% | +6.7% | +9.7% | -2.0% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +42% | |
| 2019-07-23 Tuesday | +6.5% | +9.8% | +17.7% | +1.6% | -1.7% | +22.9% | +7.1% | 15% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% | |
| 2019-04-23 Tuesday | +11.8% | +7.0% | +9.6% | +0.7% | -1.5% | +12.8% | +2.2% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +21% | |
| 2019-02-05 Tuesday | +20.6% | +3.0% | -6.7% | +9.4% | +9.2% | +6.0% | -8.5% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2018-10-23 Tuesday | -15.5% | -5.8% | -6.5% | +6.6% | +4.6% | +6.2% | -8.3% | 29% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2018-07-24 Tuesday | +4.4% | +0.7% | -2.6% | +0.1% | +13.9% | +11.2% | -4.3% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2018-04-24 Tuesday | +1.3% | +4.9% | +1.3% | +0.7% | +2.5% | +8.4% | -1.4% | 28% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2018-02-06 Tuesday | -3.4% | -8.0% | -17.0% | -1.1% | +7.1% | -7.9% | -21.5% | 24% | Sideways / High (>25) | +0% | |
| 2017-10-24 Tuesday | +14.6% | -11.9% | -8.0% | -6.8% | -4.0% | -6.0% | -16.6% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-07-20 Thursday | -0.4% | -7.4% | -9.0% | +3.1% | -2.1% | -4.5% | -11.0% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-04-20 Thursday | +3.7% | -5.3% | -9.5% | +2.7% | +2.5% | -4.0% | -11.4% | 19% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2017-01-31 Tuesday | -3.3% | -5.4% | -7.0% | +1.4% | +6.4% | +0.8% | -10.1% | 36% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-10-18 Tuesday | -0.1% | -8.0% | -10.4% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -7.7% | -16.2% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2016-07-19 Tuesday | -3.9% | +5.6% | -2.3% | -4.0% | -3.9% | +8.4% | -9.3% | 39% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2016-04-19 Tuesday | +4.7% | +10.2% | +14.4% | -3.1% | -9.5% | +16.6% | -1.8% | 37% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-02-02 Tuesday | -14.4% | +4.6% | +0.6% | -17.0% | +3.1% | +7.4% | -20.3% | 40% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2015-10-20 Tuesday | +6.2% | +8.5% | +5.9% | +3.0% | +2.8% | +15.6% | +3.2% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2015-07-21 Tuesday | +1.8% | +2.2% | +9.4% | -5.4% | -2.2% | +12.0% | -0.4% | 14% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2015-04-21 Tuesday | +6.3% | +3.0% | -3.8% | +3.8% | +3.4% | +6.8% | -8.8% | 41% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2015-02-03 Tuesday | +13.6% | +2.4% | +7.2% | +3.6% | +3.9% | +15.8% | +2.2% | 44% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_MANH.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.