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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: SONO has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed SONO earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.66 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +6.8% | 4 |
| SPY regime | Strong Down expl. | +14.3% | 1 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +1.2% | 22 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +2.9% | 22 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
31
Avg reaction
+2.8%
Median reaction
+4.5%
Avg |move|
9.6%
Up rate
58%
Avg drift T-20
+0.7%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 31 | +0.7% | +1.4% | 13.4 | -30.2% / +22.5% | 55% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 31 | -0.2% | +0.6% | 8.2 | -21.8% / +17.6% | 52% |
| Overnight gap | 31 | +3.7% | +3.4% | 9.3 | -19.6% / +19.7% | 81% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 31 | +2.8% | +4.5% | 11.8 | -24.9% / +29.8% | 58% |
| Follow-through +5d | 31 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 8.4 | -21.4% / +22.0% | 42% |
| Follow-through +20d | 31 | +1.1% | -0.5% | 15.2 | -33.1% / +39.8% | 48% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 31 | +15.8% | +14.7% | 15.8 | -16.4% / +54.1% | 90% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 31 | -8.9% | -8.4% | 12.6 | -36.2% / +17.1% | 29% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 4 | +4.2% | +7.2% | 6.9 | 75% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 4 | +3.3% | +1.1% | 9.3 | 50% |
| Wednesday | 22 | +2.9% | +3.8% | 13.0 | 59% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -5.8% | -5.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways n<10 | 2 | +18.6% | +18.6% | 11.2 | 100% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | +6.8% | +7.2% | 5.8 | 75% |
| Strong Up | 11 | +2.0% | +3.0% | 13.5 | 55% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +1.6% | +4.7% | 6.1 | 67% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | -1.1% | -2.2% | 11.2 | 38% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 4 | +7.4% | +8.5% | 5.8 | 75% |
| Low (<15) n<10 | 5 | +6.0% | +2.5% | 9.3 | 60% |
| Medium (15-25) | 22 | +1.2% | +3.8% | 12.7 | 55% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways n<10 | 2 | +9.1% | +9.1% | 7.2 | 100% |
| Strong Up | 11 | +7.0% | +6.1% | 7.2 | 73% |
| Mild Up n<10 | 8 | +5.9% | +6.6% | 11.6 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -12.1% | -10.7% | 9.1 | 17% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -12.1% | -15.0% | 15.2 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 13.6% | -5.8% | +0.1% | 0.43x |
| 2026-02-03 | 24.3% | +6.4% | +10.1% | 0.26x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 Monday | +9.4% | +0.1% | -5.8% | +8.6% | +17.6% | +12.8% | -13.7% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -300% | |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | -19.2% | +10.1% | +6.4% | +12.2% | -1.5% | +20.0% | -2.9% | 36% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +37% | |
| 2025-11-05 Wednesday | -7.8% | +3.2% | -2.1% | +5.0% | +15.2% | +14.7% | -5.2% | 41% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -220% | |
| 2025-08-06 Wednesday | +1.4% | +6.0% | -0.6% | +22.0% | +31.0% | +30.2% | -8.4% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +27% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +10.1% | +2.9% | +9.7% | +11.0% | +2.2% | +27.3% | +2.9% | 60% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -24% |
| 2025-02-06 Thursday | +0.7% | +1.2% | -7.5% | -5.1% | -7.2% | +5.1% | -20.9% | 34% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +111% | |
| 2024-11-13 Wednesday | +13.7% | +9.7% | -2.3% | -5.8% | +5.4% | +12.9% | -12.6% | 35% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -- | |
| 2024-08-07 Wednesday | -17.2% | -11.4% | -1.6% | -4.8% | +1.4% | +3.3% | -14.5% | 49% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +35% | |
| 2024-05-07 Tuesday | -3.0% | -7.3% | -4.2% | +2.9% | -4.5% | +0.4% | -11.4% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -36% | |
| 2024-02-06 Tuesday | -1.3% | +11.2% | +17.1% | -5.8% | -2.1% | +19.2% | +7.3% | 38% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +57% | |
| 2023-11-15 Wednesday | -0.2% | +4.6% | +17.1% | +7.2% | +30.7% | +54.1% | +1.7% | 56% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +26% | |
| 2023-08-09 Wednesday | -8.8% | +6.0% | -6.4% | -5.3% | -9.7% | +9.2% | -16.1% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +337% | |
| 2023-05-10 Wednesday | +3.7% | -19.6% | -23.7% | -6.0% | -0.9% | -16.4% | -32.9% | 20% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +200% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | -1.1% | +15.3% | +16.5% | +3.1% | -5.6% | +20.7% | +7.2% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +49% | |
| 2022-11-16 Wednesday | +17.8% | +6.0% | +3.0% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +12.4% | -0.7% | 55% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -46% | |
| 2022-08-10 Wednesday | +18.5% | -16.6% | -24.9% | -0.9% | -7.8% | -16.0% | -36.2% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% | |
| 2022-05-11 Wednesday | -30.2% | +5.3% | +14.3% | -8.1% | -0.6% | +21.4% | +0.4% | 61% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +51% | |
| 2022-02-09 Wednesday | -12.6% | +2.4% | +4.5% | +2.3% | -11.2% | +11.6% | -13.0% | 60% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-11-17 Wednesday | +2.0% | +2.1% | -1.2% | -2.9% | -12.5% | +3.7% | -14.7% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -16% | |
| 2021-08-11 Wednesday | +1.9% | +12.0% | +7.4% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +22.3% | +3.8% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +519% | |
| 2021-05-12 Wednesday | -27.1% | +10.7% | +7.4% | -0.2% | +1.8% | +20.9% | +0.7% | 57% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +323% | |
| 2021-02-10 Wednesday | +19.4% | +17.5% | +15.7% | +0.2% | +13.7% | +33.3% | +8.3% | 42% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2020-11-18 Wednesday | +16.3% | +18.5% | +29.8% | -3.7% | +6.9% | +39.0% | +17.1% | 49% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +120% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | 1 | +14.8% | -11.7% | -18.3% | -1.9% | -0.5% | -10.9% | -24.3% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -10% |
| 2020-05-07 Thursday | +6.1% | +0.7% | +9.6% | -13.4% | +5.4% | +21.9% | -10.5% | 58% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +16% | |
| 2020-02-05 Wednesday | -10.5% | +8.2% | +11.8% | -11.9% | -33.1% | +19.7% | -25.5% | 39% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2019-11-20 Wednesday | +9.4% | -0.4% | +2.5% | -2.4% | +5.3% | +13.1% | -7.6% | 39% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -22% | |
| 2019-08-07 Wednesday | -5.4% | +3.4% | +4.9% | +11.7% | +39.8% | +48.5% | -1.1% | 29% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +96% | |
| 2019-05-09 Thursday | -12.8% | +2.3% | +5.5% | -0.8% | -0.7% | +9.4% | -4.7% | 34% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +53% | |
| 2019-02-05 Tuesday | +22.5% | +1.4% | -6.1% | -9.3% | -17.4% | +1.8% | -22.7% | 39% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +44% | |
| 2018-11-15 Thursday | +11.7% | +19.7% | +9.0% | -21.4% | -30.4% | +25.5% | -26.1% | 59% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +83% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_SONO.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.