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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: SPSC has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed SPSC earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.12 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.0% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.6% | 24 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +1.2% | 35 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.0%
Median reaction
+1.0%
Avg |move|
6.5%
Up rate
61%
Avg drift T-20
+0.7%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +0.7% | +1.8% | 8.6 | -29.2% / +20.2% | 59% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.6% | -1.0% | 5.2 | -18.0% / +11.5% | 46% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +1.3% | +1.9% | 7.6 | -28.8% / +13.1% | 65% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.0% | +1.0% | 8.8 | -22.0% / +14.8% | 61% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.3% | -0.0% | 4.6 | -16.4% / +9.9% | 48% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.9% | +1.7% | 9.7 | -25.3% / +25.5% | 54% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +9.2% | +9.2% | 10.1 | -17.2% / +30.2% | 87% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.4% | -6.2% | 10.7 | -35.3% / +7.8% | 22% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 35 | +1.2% | +1.0% | 7.2 | 60% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | +1.1% | +9.8% | 14.1 | 67% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 7 | -4.3% | +0.9% | 10.7 | 71% |
| Monday n<10 | 1 | -13.8% | -13.8% | 0.0 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | +2.5% | +4.4% | 8.1 | 62% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | +1.5% | +0.9% | 2.2 | 67% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +1.4% | +3.2% | 9.1 | 70% |
| Strong Up | 18 | -1.8% | +0.6% | 9.1 | 56% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -2.0% | -0.1% | 11.8 | 50% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 16 | +2.0% | +1.8% | 7.7 | 75% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 6 | +1.1% | -1.0% | 4.2 | 33% |
| Medium (15-25) | 24 | -1.6% | +1.1% | 10.0 | 58% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 18 | +2.6% | +2.9% | 6.5 | 67% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +2.5% | +2.0% | 8.9 | 60% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -0.2% | +2.5% | 6.1 | 67% |
| Sideways n<10 | 8 | -2.6% | -0.5% | 10.7 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -4.8% | -8.0% | 9.7 | 25% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 12.3% | +5.0% | +6.2% | 0.41x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | -0.2% | +6.2% | +5.0% | -3.0% | -3.7% | +6.6% | -12.6% | 51% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2026-02-12 Thursday | -29.2% | +5.2% | -4.4% | -6.4% | -2.2% | +6.4% | -18.8% | 46% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | -0.6% | -28.8% | -20.8% | -2.1% | +1.3% | -17.2% | -29.7% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | +0.5% | -17.2% | -22.0% | +1.4% | +3.7% | -11.1% | -26.9% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2025-04-24 Thursday | 1 | +2.5% | -3.1% | -0.9% | +3.1% | +5.7% | +10.2% | -6.5% | 56% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +18% |
| 2025-02-10 Monday | -1.1% | -3.4% | -13.8% | -4.3% | -17.2% | -2.9% | -30.7% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-10-24 Thursday | -0.2% | -0.1% | -10.7% | -3.2% | +9.3% | +0.2% | -13.7% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2024-07-25 Thursday | +11.4% | +2.5% | +1.6% | -0.0% | -7.0% | +6.3% | -8.3% | 26% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2024-04-25 Thursday | -7.9% | +6.2% | +5.6% | +1.7% | +8.1% | +18.3% | +2.4% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2024-02-08 Thursday | +3.3% | +8.2% | +14.8% | -6.8% | -12.5% | +19.0% | -4.5% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +8% | |
| 2023-10-26 Thursday | -9.2% | +1.8% | -0.7% | +5.8% | +13.6% | +22.4% | -2.1% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2023-07-27 Thursday | -8.3% | 0.0% | +1.0% | -3.5% | +2.1% | +6.5% | -5.9% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | -3.1% | +2.5% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +7.2% | +14.7% | -1.9% | 31% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2023-02-09 Thursday | +8.2% | +8.6% | +5.9% | +3.6% | -2.9% | +14.5% | +2.1% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2022-10-27 Thursday | +2.3% | +1.5% | -1.1% | -6.1% | +2.5% | +4.9% | -10.5% | 39% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2022-07-27 Wednesday | +5.3% | -1.0% | +0.6% | +9.2% | +6.0% | +13.1% | -2.1% | 51% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2022-04-28 Thursday | -8.7% | -0.4% | -1.9% | +0.2% | -12.5% | +3.3% | -21.0% | 37% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +17% | |
| 2022-02-09 Wednesday | +2.5% | -2.6% | +0.9% | +0.8% | -0.8% | +3.2% | -7.9% | 54% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2021-10-28 Thursday | +7.3% | -3.0% | -11.8% | -2.2% | -7.9% | -3.0% | -19.5% | 27% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | +0.5% | +4.5% | +8.6% | +4.4% | +19.6% | +30.2% | +3.6% | 22% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | +1.8% | +5.0% | +1.4% | -3.6% | -9.5% | +8.2% | -9.9% | 26% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2021-02-11 Thursday | +2.5% | -3.5% | -0.2% | +0.3% | -3.0% | +1.5% | -13.7% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +6.2% | +1.9% | +3.0% | +6.9% | +17.1% | +21.2% | +0.4% | 27% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +19% | |
| 2020-07-30 Thursday | -3.6% | +2.0% | +2.5% | +2.3% | +7.1% | +13.0% | -2.5% | 28% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2020-04-30 Thursday | +20.2% | -1.1% | -2.1% | +9.9% | +25.5% | +25.9% | -9.0% | 41% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +18% | |
| 2020-02-13 Thursday | +3.9% | +3.3% | +0.7% | -7.0% | -25.3% | +3.7% | -31.8% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2019-10-24 Thursday | +3.4% | +9.5% | +7.2% | +1.0% | +7.4% | +16.1% | +5.8% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2019-07-25 Thursday | +3.0% | +6.7% | +10.5% | -1.9% | -9.7% | +15.2% | -1.6% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +14% | |
| 2019-04-25 Thursday | -4.0% | +5.8% | +4.5% | -2.1% | -6.1% | +12.2% | -3.3% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2019-02-12 Tuesday | +8.6% | +9.1% | +12.3% | +0.7% | +0.2% | +19.7% | +3.6% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2018-10-25 Thursday | -14.5% | +9.4% | +12.6% | -2.0% | -12.1% | +16.7% | -2.1% | 41% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2018-07-26 Thursday | +6.4% | +9.2% | +11.4% | +2.9% | +10.5% | +25.5% | +7.8% | 21% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +47% | |
| 2018-04-26 Thursday | +5.0% | +8.8% | +5.4% | +4.1% | +5.4% | +11.5% | +3.0% | 16% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2018-02-06 Tuesday | +0.1% | +13.1% | +9.8% | -1.2% | +15.1% | +27.4% | +3.8% | 21% | Sideways / High (>25) | +20% | |
| 2017-10-26 Thursday | -5.5% | +1.2% | -9.0% | -1.4% | +3.3% | +2.8% | -15.9% | 34% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +18% | |
| 2017-07-27 Thursday | -10.4% | +0.5% | +2.6% | -0.1% | +2.1% | +7.9% | -1.1% | 19% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | -2.0% | +5.0% | -1.6% | +3.6% | +6.2% | +10.7% | -3.9% | 24% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +31% | |
| 2017-02-07 Tuesday | -6.7% | -19.3% | -18.9% | +3.5% | -1.0% | -10.4% | -27.5% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2016-10-27 Thursday | -8.0% | -3.3% | -7.2% | -1.4% | +7.9% | +0.8% | -9.4% | 19% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2016-07-27 Wednesday | +7.5% | +3.7% | +4.3% | +0.3% | +3.3% | +10.6% | -1.0% | 23% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +15% | |
| 2016-04-21 Thursday | +19.1% | -0.6% | +3.9% | +5.3% | +7.1% | +14.4% | -6.5% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2016-02-03 Wednesday | -7.3% | -6.4% | -20.2% | -16.4% | -7.6% | -6.4% | -35.3% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +31% | |
| 2015-10-22 Thursday | +7.8% | +1.9% | -0.8% | -3.7% | -2.7% | +2.4% | -9.4% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2015-07-23 Thursday | +4.8% | +1.3% | +0.9% | -2.4% | -7.3% | +7.6% | -6.7% | 25% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2015-04-23 Thursday | +1.8% | +7.8% | +0.9% | -4.3% | -1.3% | +7.8% | -6.0% | 25% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2015-02-05 Thursday | +15.5% | +0.9% | +9.0% | -2.4% | -1.6% | +11.7% | +0.0% | 28% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +30% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_SPSC.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.