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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: MU habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Next confirmed MU earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 16–32 trading days before the report (median 23).
Projected watch window: Aug 10 → Sep 01 · most likely around Fri Aug 21.
Projected watch window: Aug 10 → Sep 01 · most likely around Fri Aug 21.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Monday ×3, Tuesday ×2, Wednesday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 18% of the last 34 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-21: NVDA Sideways (-0.7% 20d), SPY Sideways (+0.5%), SOX Strong Down, VIX 17.0 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.01 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Sideways expl. | -5.0% | 9 |
| SPY regime | Sideways | +1.5% | 25 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.7% | 23 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +2.5% | 21 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
47
Avg reaction
+0.4%
Median reaction
-1.5%
Avg |move|
6.5%
Up rate
43%
Avg drift T-20
+2.0%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 47 | +2.0% | -0.1% | 12.8 | -24.8% / +42.9% | 49% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 47 | +1.1% | +1.3% | 6.0 | -14.5% / +22.5% | 57% |
| Overnight gap | 47 | +1.5% | +1.8% | 7.5 | -15.6% / +18.1% | 55% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 47 | +0.4% | -1.5% | 8.0 | -18.1% / +15.7% | 43% |
| Follow-through +5d | 47 | -0.5% | +0.6% | 7.0 | -14.9% / +17.7% | 51% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +2.0% | -1.3% | 13.4 | -27.3% / +46.0% | 48% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.1% | +8.5% | 13.4 | -14.2% / +62.3% | 87% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.8% | -7.2% | 11.5 | -40.2% / +11.2% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 2 | +7.7% | +7.7% | 2.9 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 21 | +2.5% | +0.8% | 8.3 | 52% |
| Tuesday | 12 | +0.4% | -2.1% | 6.2 | 33% |
| Thursday | 12 | -4.3% | -4.0% | 7.1 | 25% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 10 | +4.5% | +4.8% | 4.7 | 70% |
| Mild Down | 11 | +2.8% | +4.0% | 9.3 | 55% |
| Strong Up | 10 | +1.8% | +0.9% | 8.4 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 7 | -4.1% | -4.4% | 7.7 | 29% |
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | -5.0% | -4.1% | 2.4 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 16 | +1.9% | +1.8% | 8.1 | 56% |
| Medium (15-25) | 23 | +0.7% | -2.1% | 7.9 | 35% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 8 | -3.5% | -3.4% | 6.7 | 38% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways n<10 | 9 | +8.4% | +5.0% | 17.7 | 67% |
| Strong Up | 10 | +8.2% | +5.8% | 10.8 | 80% |
| Mild Up | 10 | +1.2% | -0.5% | 6.7 | 40% |
| Mild Down | 11 | -3.0% | -2.1% | 10.0 | 27% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 7 | -6.1% | -1.2% | 10.1 | 29% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-11 Monday | POSITIVE | Raised fiscal Q4 2025 guidance to revenue $11.2B +/-$100M (from $10.7B +/-$300M), non-GAAP gross margin 44.5%, EPS $2.85 +/-$0.07 (from $2.50) on improved DRAM pricing | 30d | +4.1% | +3.3% | +34.5% |
| 2023-11-28 Tuesday | POSITIVE | Raised fiscal Q1 2024 guidance: revenue to approach $4.7B (from $4.4B +/-$200M), non-GAAP gross margin to approach breakeven (from -4.0% +/-2%) | 16d | -1.8% | +0.8% | +3.4% |
| 2021-03-03 Wednesday | POSITIVE | Raised fiscal Q2 2021 non-GAAP revenue guidance to $6.20-$6.25B from $5.6-$6.0B, plus higher gross margin and EPS | 20d | -2.2% | -5.4% | -1.0% |
| 2020-12-01 Tuesday | POSITIVE | Raised fiscal Q1 2021 non-GAAP revenue guidance to $5.70-$5.75B from $5.0-$5.4B, plus higher gross margin and EPS | 25d | +4.7% | +3.0% | +17.9% |
| 2018-05-21 Monday | POSITIVE | At Analyst and Investor Event, raised fiscal Q3 2018 non-GAAP revenue guidance to $7.70-$7.80B from $7.20-$7.60B | 21d | +3.9% | +6.4% | +6.2% |
| 2018-02-05 Monday | POSITIVE | Raised fiscal Q2 2018 non-GAAP revenue guidance to $7.20-$7.35B from $6.80-$7.20B, with higher EPS | 32d | -3.5% | +11.4% | +49.5% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 16–32 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=6) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 11.4% | +15.7% | +17.6% | 1.38x |
| 2026-03-18 | 8.2% | -3.8% | -8.0% | 0.46x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
| Report | Stock react | IV crush | Long ATM Call | Long ATM Put | Long Straddle | Short Straddle | Long Strangle | Short Strangle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 exp 2026-06-26 · ATM 1050 | +15.7% | 192.0% → 163.0% (-29 pts) | +189.5% | -97.6% | +42.7% | -42.7% | +44.3% | -44.3% |
| 2026-03-18 exp 2026-03-20 · ATM 462.5 | -3.8% | 136.0% → 82.0% (-54 pts) | -90.5% | +7.2% | -41.0% | +41.0% | -44.3% | +44.3% |
| 2025-12-17 exp 2025-12-19 · ATM 225 | +10.2% | 150.0% → 104.0% (-46 pts) | +127.9% | -98.5% | +19.2% | -19.2% | +18.8% | -18.8% |
How this is priced: entry legs come from our own stored option-chain snapshot on the report day (nightly quotes are frozen at the close, i.e. BEFORE the after-market announcement); exit legs from the reaction-day close snapshot. Front expiry after the reaction day, ATM = strike nearest the pre-report close, strangle = one strike out per side. Marks, not fills — spreads/slippage would reduce long-side returns. One row per earnings cycle inside our chain coverage (grows every quarter automatically).
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 Wednesday | 5 | +17.0% | +17.6% | +15.7% | -14.9% | -- | -- | -- | 115% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2026-03-18 Wednesday | +9.7% | -8.0% | -3.8% | -14.0% | +3.0% | +0.9% | -32.5% | 61% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +33% | |
| 2025-12-17 Wednesday | 1 | -1.3% | +13.8% | +10.2% | +15.3% | +46.0% | +62.3% | +8.6% | 68% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2025-09-23 Tuesday | POSITIVE | +42.9% | -0.8% | -2.8% | +3.5% | +25.2% | +29.1% | -7.1% | 43% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% |
| 2025-06-25 Wednesday | +32.0% | +1.8% | -1.0% | -3.4% | -11.2% | +2.0% | -14.9% | 30% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2025-03-20 Thursday | -0.2% | -4.7% | -8.0% | -3.8% | -27.3% | -4.4% | -40.2% | 63% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2024-12-18 Wednesday | +6.3% | -13.3% | -16.2% | +3.1% | +25.8% | +6.2% | -19.6% | 48% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +1% | |
| 2024-09-25 Wednesday | -2.1% | +18.1% | +14.7% | -9.1% | -4.3% | +19.9% | +3.3% | 49% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-06-26 Wednesday | +7.3% | -4.6% | -7.1% | +3.5% | -18.7% | -3.5% | -26.1% | 47% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2024-03-20 Wednesday | +18.1% | +17.8% | +14.1% | +8.6% | +2.0% | +35.8% | +11.2% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +274% | |
| 2023-12-20 Wednesday | POSITIVE | +2.6% | +8.0% | +8.6% | +0.6% | +4.5% | +14.5% | +2.5% | 28% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +6% |
| 2023-09-27 Wednesday | +2.3% | -3.3% | -4.4% | +4.5% | +2.2% | +3.9% | -6.4% | 21% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2023-06-28 Wednesday | -6.4% | +1.1% | -4.1% | -4.8% | +10.7% | +8.1% | -9.8% | 28% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +9% | |
| 2023-03-28 Tuesday | +2.5% | +2.8% | +7.2% | -9.9% | -3.8% | +8.8% | -5.5% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -116% | |
| 2022-12-21 Wednesday | -12.7% | -3.3% | -3.4% | +2.5% | +25.4% | +21.2% | -5.4% | 34% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | -114% | |
| 2022-09-29 Thursday | -11.5% | +1.1% | +0.2% | +9.0% | +4.4% | +15.1% | -0.4% | 38% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-06-30 Thursday | -24.8% | -3.6% | -3.0% | +10.4% | +15.5% | +15.4% | -7.0% | 50% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2022-03-29 Tuesday | -4.9% | +2.7% | -3.5% | -5.8% | -15.9% | +5.1% | -19.6% | 74% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2021-12-20 Monday | -1.2% | +8.5% | +10.5% | +2.5% | -0.6% | +20.1% | +6.5% | 34% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2021-09-28 Tuesday | -0.1% | -2.6% | -2.0% | -1.4% | -3.6% | +0.3% | -10.0% | 20% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2021-06-30 Wednesday | +0.8% | -3.2% | -5.7% | -3.7% | -3.8% | -3.2% | -14.7% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-03-31 Wednesday | POSITIVE | -1.0% | +5.4% | +4.8% | +3.1% | -4.7% | +9.9% | -4.9% | 59% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2021-01-07 Thursday | POSITIVE | +8.1% | +4.3% | -2.1% | +5.0% | +4.8% | +10.3% | -6.0% | 30% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +13% |
| 2020-09-29 Tuesday | +11.4% | -3.5% | -7.4% | +0.8% | +10.7% | +8.2% | -8.3% | 36% | Sideways / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2020-06-29 Monday | +6.1% | +5.3% | +4.8% | -4.7% | -2.8% | +10.3% | -2.4% | 46% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +7% | |
| 2020-03-25 Wednesday | 5 | -18.9% | +5.7% | +5.4% | -10.9% | -2.3% | +17.2% | -7.5% | 133% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +21% |
| 2019-12-18 Wednesday | +13.9% | +3.7% | +2.8% | +1.1% | +5.7% | +10.3% | -0.7% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2019-09-26 Thursday | +12.6% | -5.6% | -11.1% | +0.6% | +9.0% | -3.0% | -14.1% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +16% | |
| 2019-06-25 Tuesday | -0.8% | +9.8% | +13.3% | +6.9% | +29.6% | +47.6% | +9.2% | 41% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +33% | |
| 2019-03-20 Wednesday | -4.9% | +3.9% | +9.6% | -10.8% | -1.9% | +11.8% | -2.8% | 33% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2018-12-18 Tuesday | -13.5% | -7.2% | -7.9% | -1.7% | +7.9% | +7.7% | -16.8% | 53% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +0% | |
| 2018-09-20 Thursday | -8.3% | -3.6% | -2.9% | +0.6% | -7.7% | +1.4% | -10.7% | 52% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +6% | |
| 2018-06-20 Wednesday | POSITIVE | -0.1% | +4.3% | +0.8% | -12.1% | -5.4% | +4.9% | -15.0% | 36% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +0% |
| 2018-03-22 Thursday | POSITIVE | +33.1% | -2.1% | -8.0% | -3.8% | -6.6% | -0.2% | -19.8% | 45% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2017-12-19 Tuesday | -7.7% | +6.1% | +4.0% | -7.2% | -6.6% | +6.8% | -7.3% | 48% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2017-09-26 Tuesday | +10.0% | +6.1% | +8.5% | +8.8% | +12.2% | +23.4% | +5.1% | 25% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2017-06-29 Thursday | +2.3% | +2.1% | -5.1% | +1.1% | -1.9% | +2.8% | -9.2% | 39% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2017-03-23 Thursday | +12.7% | +12.2% | +7.4% | +1.9% | -3.9% | +12.8% | -0.4% | 28% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2016-12-21 Wednesday | +4.3% | +11.3% | +12.7% | -4.0% | -5.6% | +14.9% | +4.4% | 37% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2016-10-04 Tuesday | +4.6% | -1.4% | -0.6% | -4.8% | -4.1% | +3.0% | -9.2% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +47% | |
| 2016-06-30 Thursday | 1 | +5.0% | -8.6% | -9.2% | +1.0% | +9.9% | +8.2% | -16.4% | 61% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +17% |
| 2016-03-30 Wednesday | -5.3% | -1.6% | -0.1% | 0.0% | +10.4% | +11.2% | -4.5% | 52% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +45% | |
| 2015-12-22 Tuesday | -4.6% | -6.1% | -2.1% | -1.0% | -22.6% | +3.2% | -36.3% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2015-10-01 Thursday | -9.3% | +3.0% | +7.7% | +17.7% | +1.9% | +30.7% | +2.6% | 47% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +17% | |
| 2015-06-25 Thursday | -15.1% | -15.6% | -18.1% | -3.0% | -6.7% | -14.2% | -28.6% | 22% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | -4% | |
| 2015-04-01 Wednesday | -7.3% | +2.3% | -1.5% | +4.1% | +5.2% | +9.8% | -2.7% | 31% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2015-01-06 Tuesday | -9.9% | -4.1% | -2.3% | -3.9% | -9.6% | +3.0% | -14.5% | 26% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_MU.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.