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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: SWKS habitually moves BEFORE earnings when it pre-announces (guidance raises, preliminary results, business updates). This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed SWKS earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Historical pre-announcements landed 5–5 trading days before the report (median 5).
Projected watch window: Jul 21 → Jul 21 · most likely around Tue Jul 21.
Projected watch window: Jul 21 → Jul 21 · most likely around Tue Jul 21.
Pre-announcement weekdays so far: Tuesday ×1. Documented pre-announcement rate in the modern era: 33% of the last 3 cycles.
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.59 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -6.2% | 6 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -1.6% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | -1.8% | 11 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-1.0%
Median reaction
-1.0%
Avg |move|
5.5%
Up rate
41%
Avg drift T-20
+1.8%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +1.8% | +0.5% | 11.6 | -19.4% / +35.9% | 50% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.2% | +1.0% | 5.2 | -10.3% / +19.0% | 65% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | -1.2% | -1.6% | 6.9 | -28.2% / +17.5% | 37% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -1.0% | -1.0% | 7.1 | -24.7% / +13.0% | 41% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 4.6 | -12.7% / +8.0% | 46% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +0.6% | +0.7% | 8.8 | -23.5% / +25.2% | 52% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +6.0% | +5.2% | 9.2 | -20.9% / +24.9% | 78% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -8.7% | -6.9% | 8.5 | -28.8% / +7.9% | 20% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 7 | +2.1% | -1.3% | 6.7 | 43% |
| Thursday | 25 | -0.7% | -2.5% | 5.8 | 40% |
| Tuesday | 11 | -1.8% | -0.4% | 6.9 | 36% |
| Wednesday n<10 | 3 | -7.9% | +0.5% | 11.9 | 67% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 12 | +2.5% | +0.9% | 5.8 | 50% |
| Sideways | 10 | +0.7% | +1.1% | 5.6 | 60% |
| Strong Up | 12 | -1.9% | -2.5% | 6.1 | 33% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -3.7% | -3.8% | 6.4 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -6.2% | -4.2% | 9.4 | 17% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (>25) n<10 | 7 | +2.6% | +5.1% | 5.4 | 57% |
| Low (<15) | 13 | -1.6% | -4.3% | 5.5 | 23% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -1.6% | -0.5% | 7.9 | 46% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 12 | +10.2% | +9.8% | 15.1 | 75% |
| Mild Up | 12 | +2.8% | +1.2% | 7.9 | 58% |
| Sideways | 10 | -1.0% | -1.7% | 7.0 | 50% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 6 | -3.8% | -2.5% | 5.5 | 17% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 6 | -6.4% | -7.6% | 9.5 | 17% |
Documented pre-announcements
| Date | Signal | Event | Lead | Day ret | Next day | To earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | POSITIVE | Preliminary Q4/FY25 results: Q4 revenue $1.10B, non-GAAP EPS $1.76 (above September-quarter guide); issued alongside the ~$22B Qorvo merger agreement | 5d | +5.8% | -1.9% | -10.3% |
The habit: every documented pre-announcement landed inside the last 5–5 trading days before the report. Positive pre-announcements (guidance raises) came with continued drift into earnings; negative preliminary results did not mean-revert before the report. Sample is small (n=1) — treat as exploratory, but the LEAD-TIME clustering is the actionable part: once inside the window, gap risk is two-sided and elevated.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 12.5% | -10.5% | -6.2% | 0.84x |
| 2026-02-03 | 12.9% | +5.5% | +5.0% | 0.43x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 Tuesday | 1 | +31.8% | -6.2% | -10.5% | +2.1% | +25.2% | +18.4% | -15.2% | 46% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +10% |
| 2026-02-03 Tuesday | -14.2% | +5.0% | +5.5% | +5.6% | -3.5% | +14.8% | +1.0% | 51% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2025-11-04 Tuesday | POSITIVE | -3.2% | +2.6% | +2.0% | -6.3% | -4.5% | +5.1% | -15.6% | 51% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +15% |
| 2025-08-05 Tuesday | -13.2% | +2.2% | -0.2% | +6.2% | +10.0% | +15.5% | -2.9% | 19% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 2 | +35.9% | +0.1% | +0.6% | +7.4% | +6.3% | +10.8% | -2.9% | 86% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
| 2025-02-05 Wednesday | -4.2% | -28.2% | -24.7% | +0.9% | +3.1% | -20.9% | -28.8% | 25% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-11-12 Tuesday | -11.7% | -2.6% | -4.4% | +0.5% | +8.3% | +5.3% | -5.6% | 36% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2024-07-30 Tuesday | +10.6% | -4.9% | -3.5% | -12.7% | -4.6% | -3.0% | -18.3% | 36% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2024-04-30 Tuesday | -0.0% | -14.6% | -15.3% | +2.5% | +0.4% | -10.2% | -16.4% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2024-01-30 Tuesday | -7.2% | +3.0% | +0.1% | -1.4% | -1.9% | +3.2% | -4.7% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | -7.5% | -3.5% | +1.7% | -5.0% | +8.6% | +10.9% | -4.2% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2023-08-07 Monday | -1.8% | -3.2% | -1.3% | +0.1% | +1.0% | +0.6% | -6.9% | 22% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2023-05-08 Monday | -5.9% | -12.5% | -5.2% | -0.3% | +4.4% | +2.8% | -12.5% | 25% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2023-02-06 Monday | +14.5% | +4.9% | +12.5% | -1.8% | -8.4% | +13.2% | +0.5% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -0% | |
| 2022-11-03 Thursday | -11.1% | +4.8% | +6.8% | +6.0% | +7.6% | +19.6% | +3.8% | 47% | Sideways / High (>25) | +4% | |
| 2022-08-04 Thursday | +15.6% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -2.1% | -11.1% | +1.0% | -14.9% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2022-05-03 Tuesday | -11.0% | -4.5% | -5.0% | -9.5% | -5.0% | -3.9% | -18.3% | 44% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +0% | |
| 2022-02-03 Thursday | -12.4% | -2.8% | -2.5% | +4.3% | +1.0% | +5.2% | -6.9% | 42% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2021-11-04 Thursday | +5.6% | -1.9% | -4.3% | -1.3% | -8.6% | -1.2% | -15.5% | 22% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2021-07-29 Thursday | +2.6% | -6.1% | -6.2% | +0.7% | -1.6% | -3.5% | -11.6% | 21% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2021-04-29 Thursday | +7.8% | -6.7% | -8.3% | -3.0% | -5.5% | -5.6% | -19.0% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2021-01-28 Thursday | +6.2% | +17.5% | +5.9% | +5.8% | +5.3% | +22.9% | +4.7% | 39% | Sideways / High (>25) | +61% | |
| 2020-11-02 Monday | -6.3% | -0.1% | -2.3% | +4.2% | +4.1% | +6.9% | -5.2% | 29% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +21% | |
| 2020-07-23 Thursday | +7.1% | -2.9% | -2.8% | +8.0% | +7.2% | +10.7% | -5.0% | 20% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +10% | |
| 2020-05-04 Monday | 1 | +24.1% | +4.5% | +5.1% | +5.4% | +18.7% | +24.9% | +2.7% | 63% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +1% |
| 2020-01-23 Thursday | +6.8% | -1.3% | -4.6% | -5.0% | -5.9% | +0.2% | -12.7% | 25% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-11-12 Tuesday | +17.3% | -5.9% | -0.4% | -4.5% | +8.5% | +8.5% | -6.2% | 29% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +1% | |
| 2019-08-07 Wednesday | -0.0% | -4.0% | +0.5% | -5.3% | -0.6% | +0.6% | -10.0% | 35% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2019-05-02 Thursday | +6.4% | -2.4% | -3.5% | -4.5% | -23.5% | -0.9% | -26.5% | 26% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2019-02-05 Tuesday | +17.8% | +7.9% | +11.5% | -1.3% | -3.9% | +15.2% | +5.2% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2018-11-08 Thursday | -2.2% | -7.2% | -8.1% | -4.6% | -11.6% | -4.2% | -20.7% | 39% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-07-19 Thursday | +2.5% | +0.8% | -5.4% | -1.6% | -5.4% | +1.4% | -11.3% | 24% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2018-05-03 Thursday | -6.6% | -2.6% | +4.3% | +0.9% | +5.3% | +10.2% | -4.6% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% | |
| 2018-02-05 Monday | -6.5% | +6.7% | +10.4% | -0.4% | +7.3% | +18.9% | +4.2% | 37% | Sideways / High (>25) | +5% | |
| 2017-11-06 Monday | +11.1% | -5.5% | -4.4% | -0.8% | -12.0% | -2.6% | -17.8% | 26% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2017-07-20 Thursday | +4.2% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -4.6% | +0.8% | -5.9% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-04-27 Thursday | +7.2% | -1.4% | -4.3% | +1.2% | +6.6% | +3.1% | -5.5% | 20% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +3% | |
| 2017-01-19 Thursday | +1.3% | +8.3% | +13.0% | +2.6% | +4.6% | +20.8% | +7.9% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-11-03 Thursday | -5.9% | -2.8% | +0.5% | +1.1% | -1.9% | +7.7% | -3.7% | 16% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2016-07-21 Thursday | +8.5% | -5.9% | -8.6% | +2.6% | +11.3% | +2.0% | -12.0% | 54% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-04-28 Thursday | -7.9% | -1.9% | -6.9% | -3.7% | -0.6% | +0.3% | -15.5% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2016-01-28 Thursday | -19.4% | +6.2% | +6.4% | -4.2% | -5.4% | +8.6% | -15.5% | 59% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | +1.1% | +4.7% | +7.1% | -11.8% | +2.6% | +10.7% | -8.3% | 40% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +0% | |
| 2015-07-23 Thursday | -4.9% | +3.2% | -5.2% | -1.0% | -15.4% | +3.3% | -19.9% | 42% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -4.7% | +3.9% | +6.6% | -1.2% | +11.4% | +19.8% | +0.1% | 22% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2015-01-22 Thursday | +6.6% | -1.2% | +1.9% | +4.1% | +4.4% | +7.1% | -2.5% | 32% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_SWKS.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.