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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: BDC has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Next confirmed BDC earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.44 (Bearish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -2.2% | 4 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | -0.8% | 26 |
| Earnings weekday | Thursday | +0.1% | 16 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
-0.5%
Median reaction
-0.7%
Avg |move|
2.2%
Up rate
43%
Avg drift T-20
+2.5%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.5% | +1.0% | 13.3 | -33.4% / +34.8% | 52% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | +1.4% | +1.2% | 9.5 | -19.4% / +26.0% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.1% | +0.1% | 1.3 | -3.5% / +2.5% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 2.7 | -6.7% / +5.1% | 43% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +0.5% | -0.4% | 4.6 | -10.1% / +15.1% | 48% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +1.5% | +1.9% | 10.1 | -23.4% / +26.4% | 61% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +7.4% | +6.0% | 6.9 | -0.2% / +31.7% | 98% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -7.7% | -6.6% | 6.6 | -27.4% / +1.1% | 7% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday n<10 | 3 | +1.4% | +2.1% | 3.1 | 67% |
| Thursday | 16 | +0.1% | -0.1% | 2.0 | 50% |
| Wednesday | 27 | -1.1% | -1.4% | 2.8 | 37% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways | 13 | +0.5% | +1.9% | 3.3 | 54% |
| Strong Up | 15 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 2.3 | 40% |
| Mild Up | 11 | -0.7% | +0.8% | 2.5 | 55% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | -1.6% | -0.7% | 1.9 | 33% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | -2.2% | -2.1% | 0.9 | 0% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 15 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 2.6 | 47% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 2.0 | 40% |
| Medium (15-25) | 26 | -0.8% | -1.0% | 2.9 | 42% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +6.6% | +2.7% | 11.8 | 53% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +3.5% | +4.1% | 12.0 | 55% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 4 | +1.7% | +8.8% | 15.6 | 75% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 3 | -1.5% | +0.5% | 3.6 | 67% |
| Sideways | 13 | -2.1% | -2.8% | 14.9 | 38% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 9.8% | +1.5% | +0.2% | 0.15x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 Thursday | 1 | -3.5% | +0.2% | +1.5% | -1.7% | -8.0% | +3.2% | -10.2% | 56% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2026-02-12 Thursday | +28.0% | -0.1% | -0.8% | -2.6% | -23.4% | +1.3% | -24.8% | 41% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2025-10-30 Thursday | +4.1% | +0.0% | -0.3% | -1.6% | -6.9% | +1.2% | -13.5% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2025-07-31 Thursday | +2.7% | -2.0% | -4.9% | -1.3% | +12.8% | +8.0% | -7.3% | 31% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2025-05-01 Thursday | 2 | -3.0% | +1.6% | +3.4% | +2.4% | +1.4% | +13.2% | +1.1% | 71% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +7% |
| 2025-02-06 Thursday | +0.5% | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.6% | -9.2% | +2.8% | -11.8% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-10-31 Thursday | -1.6% | +0.1% | +1.2% | +11.1% | +6.2% | +15.8% | +0.1% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2024-08-01 Thursday | +8.9% | -3.5% | -1.2% | -4.6% | +7.7% | +8.1% | -9.4% | 44% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2024-05-02 Thursday | -0.5% | +2.4% | -0.8% | +4.1% | +8.5% | +10.9% | -1.8% | 40% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +16% | |
| 2024-02-08 Thursday | 1 | +14.3% | +1.3% | -1.2% | +2.1% | +7.7% | +8.1% | -6.6% | 46% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +30% |
| 2023-11-02 Thursday | 2 | -33.4% | +2.2% | +3.7% | -1.6% | +5.3% | +11.9% | +0.4% | 115% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2023-08-03 Thursday | -6.7% | -0.7% | -1.7% | -0.7% | +7.6% | +6.4% | -4.9% | 26% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +8% | |
| 2023-05-03 Wednesday | -4.7% | -0.3% | -1.4% | +3.5% | +10.6% | +14.1% | -1.9% | 29% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2023-02-08 Wednesday | +14.4% | +1.1% | -1.4% | +3.8% | -2.8% | +3.6% | -12.4% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-11-02 Wednesday | +9.6% | +0.1% | +2.5% | +2.1% | +12.5% | +16.6% | -1.3% | 33% | Sideways / High (>25) | +13% | |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +26.4% | +1.1% | +0.0% | +0.7% | -2.5% | +5.7% | -2.8% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2022-05-04 Wednesday | +8.7% | -0.1% | -1.5% | -4.4% | +3.6% | +2.1% | -9.1% | 48% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +19% | |
| 2022-02-09 Wednesday | -6.5% | -1.7% | -4.2% | +1.6% | +0.5% | +0.9% | -12.5% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +4% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | +10.0% | +2.5% | -1.9% | +4.4% | -2.0% | +6.7% | -6.5% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | +8.1% | +1.6% | -4.1% | +7.9% | +9.5% | +7.7% | -5.0% | 40% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | 1 | +8.7% | +1.9% | +5.1% | -2.2% | +3.6% | +13.7% | -1.0% | 49% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +44% |
| 2021-02-10 Wednesday | +9.2% | +0.3% | -4.5% | -2.8% | -0.6% | +0.6% | -10.9% | 57% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2020-10-28 Wednesday | +1.6% | -1.7% | -0.7% | -0.8% | +26.4% | +28.0% | -4.7% | 32% | Mild Down / High (>25) | +19% | |
| 2020-07-29 Wednesday | +3.7% | -3.1% | -3.8% | +2.3% | +4.9% | +12.6% | -8.7% | 44% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +68% | |
| 2020-04-29 Wednesday | 1 | -6.8% | -2.0% | +1.7% | -7.6% | +0.7% | +6.6% | -21.2% | 98% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +3% |
| 2020-02-04 Tuesday | -1.0% | +1.6% | +2.1% | -5.0% | -19.6% | +3.7% | -27.4% | 33% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2019-10-30 Wednesday | -1.6% | -0.7% | +0.3% | +1.5% | +8.1% | +9.0% | -0.9% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -2% | |
| 2019-07-31 Wednesday | 1 | -17.8% | +1.0% | +0.8% | -1.9% | -3.9% | +3.9% | -8.7% | 79% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +1% |
| 2019-05-01 Wednesday | +5.8% | +0.5% | +3.7% | +0.8% | -12.9% | +6.9% | -11.2% | 36% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2019-02-20 Wednesday | 1 | +25.2% | -0.5% | -5.4% | +2.4% | -6.7% | -0.2% | -12.7% | 49% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% |
| 2018-10-31 Wednesday | -25.0% | -1.8% | -3.2% | +8.1% | +4.9% | +6.4% | -4.7% | 38% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2018-08-01 Wednesday | 1 | +19.8% | -0.2% | -3.7% | +2.5% | +3.8% | +2.7% | -6.5% | 47% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +4% |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | -7.2% | -0.4% | -6.7% | +0.8% | -4.5% | +0.5% | -13.5% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2018-02-01 Thursday | 1 | -5.0% | -0.5% | -1.2% | -10.1% | -0.9% | +1.3% | -12.0% | 48% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | -8% |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | -1.1% | +0.3% | -0.9% | +0.7% | +3.4% | +5.1% | -2.4% | 20% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | -0.1% | +0.5% | -2.5% | -2.1% | +2.5% | +0.5% | -7.3% | 28% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | +9.8% | +0.1% | +1.4% | -0.5% | +0.3% | +2.7% | -8.1% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +4% | |
| 2017-02-02 Thursday | -3.1% | +0.2% | +1.4% | -2.8% | -7.0% | +1.6% | -7.7% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | -11.6% | -0.4% | -1.9% | +9.1% | +21.4% | +22.5% | -2.4% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +1% | |
| 2016-07-19 Tuesday | 1 | +14.1% | +1.1% | +4.8% | -2.1% | -3.5% | +5.1% | -3.3% | 61% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +22% |
| 2016-05-04 Wednesday | -2.8% | +0.7% | +2.0% | -1.0% | +6.0% | +8.2% | -3.6% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2016-02-09 Tuesday | 1 | +14.2% | +1.4% | -2.8% | +15.1% | +25.7% | +31.7% | -5.7% | 94% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +10% |
| 2015-10-28 Wednesday | 1 | +34.8% | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.3% | +0.1% | +3.3% | -4.6% | 75% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +3% |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | 1 | -23.6% | -0.5% | +1.9% | -7.1% | -22.4% | +4.7% | -23.6% | 54% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +2% |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -8.8% | +0.1% | +1.4% | -0.7% | -0.8% | +4.6% | -1.1% | 40% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +2% | |
| 2015-02-05 Thursday | +6.2% | +0.3% | +0.8% | +2.6% | +3.0% | +8.0% | -0.2% | 23% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +2% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_BDC.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.