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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: TER has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Next confirmed TER earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore -0.11 (Neutral / Mixed)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | -5.3% | 5 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +0.4% | 22 |
| Earnings weekday | Tuesday | +2.6% | 20 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+0.6%
Median reaction
+0.0%
Avg |move|
7.2%
Up rate
50%
Avg drift T-20
+3.2%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +3.2% | +3.1% | 11.4 | -14.6% / +37.5% | 61% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 4.7 | -9.5% / +10.1% | 50% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.3% | +1.3% | 8.2 | -22.9% / +17.8% | 52% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +0.6% | +0.0% | 9.3 | -22.4% / +20.5% | 50% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | +1.1% | +0.7% | 4.8 | -8.1% / +16.6% | 59% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | +3.5% | +2.5% | 9.0 | -10.8% / +31.3% | 63% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +10.8% | +8.7% | 12.1 | -14.8% / +42.1% | 85% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -6.9% | -6.7% | 8.7 | -28.5% / +13.1% | 24% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday n<10 | 2 | +5.4% | +5.4% | 8.0 | 50% |
| Thursday n<10 | 2 | +4.9% | +4.9% | 6.4 | 50% |
| Tuesday | 20 | +2.6% | +2.8% | 10.2 | 60% |
| Wednesday | 22 | -2.1% | -3.2% | 7.9 | 41% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Up | 11 | +4.4% | +3.6% | 7.2 | 73% |
| Strong Up | 16 | +1.9% | +1.8% | 10.4 | 62% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +0.6% | -0.2% | 6.2 | 43% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | -4.4% | -1.5% | 7.6 | 14% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -5.3% | -4.8% | 9.9 | 20% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 17 | +2.4% | +3.1% | 7.3 | 65% |
| Medium (15-25) | 22 | +0.4% | -0.5% | 10.4 | 41% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 7 | -3.3% | -1.3% | 8.8 | 43% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 16 | +10.6% | +8.1% | 11.5 | 88% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +5.1% | +4.9% | 5.2 | 82% |
| Sideways n<10 | 7 | +2.2% | +0.2% | 9.9 | 57% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 7 | -5.7% | -7.0% | 7.3 | 14% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 5 | -10.6% | -12.4% | 3.2 | 0% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 12.1% | -19.4% | -17.2% | 1.61x |
| 2026-02-02 | 13.9% | +13.4% | +3.5% | 0.96x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 Tuesday | 1 | +37.5% | -17.2% | -19.4% | +16.6% | +22.7% | +7.0% | -20.6% | 58% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +21% |
| 2026-02-02 Monday | +20.2% | +3.5% | +13.4% | +9.6% | +7.5% | +38.3% | -1.1% | 43% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2025-10-28 Tuesday | +4.9% | +17.8% | +20.5% | +1.0% | -3.5% | +32.7% | +5.0% | 54% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2025-07-29 Tuesday | +0.7% | +16.8% | +18.9% | -0.7% | +10.2% | +32.3% | +13.1% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2025-04-28 Monday | 2 | -7.2% | -2.3% | -2.5% | +0.7% | +9.3% | +11.7% | -7.2% | 92% | Sideways / High (>25) | +22% |
| 2025-01-29 Wednesday | -5.0% | -16.4% | -5.7% | -2.1% | -5.3% | -1.1% | -17.4% | 46% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +5% | |
| 2024-10-23 Wednesday | -4.8% | -5.0% | -11.0% | -1.1% | -6.5% | -4.9% | -18.1% | 33% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2024-07-24 Wednesday | -2.7% | -10.5% | -13.4% | +5.5% | +8.9% | -4.8% | -24.0% | 44% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2024-04-24 Wednesday | -6.9% | +6.7% | +8.2% | +4.4% | +31.3% | +42.1% | +3.3% | 38% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +55% | |
| 2024-01-30 Tuesday | -3.6% | -8.7% | -7.7% | +1.2% | +4.0% | +0.2% | -11.8% | 30% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2023-10-26 Thursday | -14.6% | -0.3% | -1.5% | +2.5% | +10.4% | +10.3% | -4.8% | 27% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +10% | |
| 2023-07-26 Wednesday | +3.9% | +3.4% | -3.5% | -2.5% | -4.8% | +4.0% | -13.3% | 30% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2023-04-26 Wednesday | -10.4% | -3.6% | -3.2% | +2.0% | +4.6% | +6.4% | -5.1% | 26% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +24% | |
| 2023-01-25 Wednesday | +19.5% | -3.6% | +0.2% | +4.2% | -0.6% | +8.3% | -5.0% | 35% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +23% | |
| 2022-10-25 Tuesday | +1.6% | 0.0% | +3.3% | -0.0% | +13.0% | +22.7% | -3.0% | 47% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2022-07-26 Tuesday | +0.2% | -7.1% | -0.2% | +1.0% | -5.1% | +7.2% | -9.0% | 42% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2022-04-26 Tuesday | -12.4% | +2.6% | -1.3% | +2.8% | -6.6% | +7.2% | -9.3% | 41% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +11% | |
| 2022-01-26 Wednesday | -12.9% | -22.9% | -22.4% | +5.4% | +5.6% | -14.8% | -28.5% | 48% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2021-10-26 Tuesday | +3.3% | +3.7% | +6.9% | +13.2% | +21.2% | +34.2% | +2.3% | 25% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2021-07-27 Tuesday | -7.0% | -3.5% | -1.1% | +3.8% | -4.3% | +5.5% | -9.3% | 32% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +9% | |
| 2021-04-27 Tuesday | +15.1% | +5.8% | +1.0% | -7.1% | -2.9% | +6.2% | -12.9% | 41% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2021-01-27 Wednesday | +10.5% | -4.9% | -7.8% | +0.5% | +4.8% | +13.7% | -13.1% | 37% | Sideways / High (>25) | +9% | |
| 2020-10-20 Tuesday | +14.9% | +0.1% | +4.7% | -5.0% | +15.0% | +21.9% | -3.3% | 26% | Mild Up / High (>25) | +6% | |
| 2020-07-21 Tuesday | +7.0% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -2.8% | +1.9% | +4.2% | -7.8% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2020-04-21 Tuesday | 2 | +32.5% | +8.8% | +3.0% | +0.7% | -2.6% | +10.8% | -7.4% | 77% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +15% |
| 2020-01-22 Wednesday | +6.1% | +7.4% | +3.6% | -8.1% | -10.8% | +10.8% | -10.9% | 23% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +12% | |
| 2019-10-22 Tuesday | +1.7% | +7.4% | +2.6% | +4.8% | +5.7% | +13.6% | +1.5% | 29% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2019-07-23 Tuesday | +4.0% | +10.8% | +20.5% | -1.0% | -8.4% | +21.9% | +3.7% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2019-04-23 Tuesday | +12.9% | +4.8% | +7.6% | +2.1% | -8.5% | +11.8% | -2.0% | 24% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2019-01-23 Wednesday | +8.0% | +8.7% | +12.9% | +2.4% | +14.3% | +29.5% | +6.6% | 43% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +25% | |
| 2018-10-23 Tuesday | -14.1% | -3.9% | -6.1% | +12.4% | +16.7% | +14.7% | -6.2% | 29% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2018-07-24 Tuesday | +7.2% | +10.5% | +6.4% | +0.7% | -7.2% | +13.4% | -3.8% | 28% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +20% | |
| 2018-04-24 Tuesday | -13.0% | -10.8% | -16.4% | -3.4% | +10.4% | -6.3% | -22.8% | 35% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +7% | |
| 2018-01-24 Wednesday | +9.3% | -0.1% | -4.2% | +2.3% | -1.6% | +2.0% | -16.1% | 31% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +32% | |
| 2017-10-25 Wednesday | +6.3% | +4.8% | +7.4% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +14.1% | +1.9% | 9% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +25% | |
| 2017-07-26 Wednesday | +18.7% | -7.5% | -6.6% | -3.1% | +1.2% | -4.7% | -11.5% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +5% | |
| 2017-04-26 Wednesday | +9.4% | +3.6% | +7.6% | -2.6% | -3.3% | +8.3% | -1.9% | 16% | Mild Down / Low (<15) | +15% | |
| 2017-01-25 Wednesday | +5.8% | +4.8% | +1.4% | +3.8% | +5.7% | +9.0% | +0.4% | 19% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +48% | |
| 2016-10-26 Wednesday | +2.9% | +6.0% | +3.6% | +0.7% | +9.1% | +13.5% | +1.3% | 18% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +23% | |
| 2016-07-27 Wednesday | +12.4% | -6.7% | -3.3% | -4.6% | +1.9% | +0.8% | -8.1% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +10% | |
| 2016-04-27 Wednesday | -2.6% | -6.6% | -8.5% | -2.3% | +1.1% | -5.7% | -13.0% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +15% | |
| 2016-01-27 Wednesday | -6.5% | +5.7% | -4.8% | -2.4% | +1.6% | +5.7% | -13.0% | 27% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +30% | |
| 2015-10-27 Tuesday | +8.2% | -1.0% | +9.7% | -1.5% | +0.4% | +11.7% | -1.0% | 29% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2015-07-29 Wednesday | -3.5% | +5.1% | +3.1% | -1.2% | -8.8% | +7.5% | -13.7% | 17% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2015-04-30 Thursday | -2.6% | +7.0% | +11.2% | -1.2% | +4.5% | +17.2% | +6.9% | 20% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +39% | |
| 2015-01-28 Wednesday | -7.0% | +2.7% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +5.8% | +7.1% | -6.1% | 30% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +22% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_TER.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.