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Earnings Analysis
Why this page exists: QTWO has no documented material pre-announcement habit — the edge here is the earnings-cycle statistics themselves (drift, gap, reaction, follow-through) and how they vary by regime. This page
measures every earnings cycle — drift into the report, the gap, the reaction,
the follow-through — alongside the NVDA / SPY / VIX regime it happened in, and
uses the documented pre-announcement history to project when the next
pre-announcement is most likely to land. All numbers are computed from real
daily prices, real earnings dates, our own ATM-straddle expected moves and
stored option chains, and a
curated registry of real press releases. Nothing is simulated.
Next earnings & predicted pre-announcement window
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Next confirmed QTWO earnings date (source: exchange calendar).
Current regime & edge read
As of 2026-07-24: NVDA Strong Down (nan% 20d), SPY Strong Down (nan%), SOX Mild Down, VIX 18.7 (Medium (15-25)).
EdgeScore +0.48 (Bullish)
| Component | Current bucket | Hist. mean reaction | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA regime | Strong Down expl. | +1.4% | 3 |
| VIX level | Medium (15-25) | +4.0% | 31 |
| Earnings weekday | Wednesday | +3.3% | 33 |
EdgeScore = mean of the matching buckets' historical mean earnings reactions, normalized by the average absolute reaction (±1 cap). Transparent and purely historical — not a prediction model.
Cycles
46
Avg reaction
+2.9%
Median reaction
+2.5%
Avg |move|
6.1%
Up rate
63%
Avg drift T-20
+2.4%
Event-window statistics (all cycles)
| Window | N | Mean | Median | Std | Min / Max | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift T-20 → report | 46 | +2.4% | +0.5% | 11.0 | -21.7% / +37.2% | 52% |
| Drift T-5 → report | 46 | -0.3% | +0.6% | 5.3 | -15.8% / +11.6% | 54% |
| Overnight gap | 46 | +0.7% | +0.6% | 5.3 | -20.1% / +9.1% | 57% |
| Reaction day (close→close) | 46 | +2.9% | +2.5% | 6.9 | -9.8% / +15.2% | 63% |
| Follow-through +5d | 46 | -1.2% | -0.7% | 5.9 | -15.6% / +12.8% | 43% |
| Follow-through +20d | 46 | -0.5% | +2.1% | 11.0 | -41.2% / +18.5% | 59% |
| Max favorable excursion (20d) | 46 | +11.9% | +11.7% | 8.8 | -2.7% / +27.4% | 93% |
| Max adverse excursion (20d) | 46 | -9.1% | -7.2% | 11.8 | -46.3% / +6.2% | 24% |
Reaction by regime & calendar
Reaction by report weekday
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday n<10 | 4 | +8.4% | +7.3% | 3.4 | 100% |
| Wednesday | 33 | +3.3% | +2.5% | 7.0 | 67% |
| Tuesday n<10 | 6 | +1.0% | +1.1% | 5.3 | 50% |
| Monday n<10 | 3 | -5.1% | -7.0% | 3.2 | 0% |
Reaction by NVDA 20-day regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +8.0% | +10.8% | 7.7 | 80% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +6.6% | +5.8% | 5.7 | 82% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | +1.4% | +3.4% | 6.3 | 67% |
| Sideways | 12 | +0.7% | +0.3% | 5.3 | 50% |
| Strong Up | 15 | +0.5% | +0.6% | 6.7 | 53% |
Reaction by VIX level
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium (15-25) | 31 | +4.0% | +3.1% | 7.6 | 68% |
| High (>25) n<10 | 5 | +1.5% | +2.9% | 5.0 | 60% |
| Low (<15) | 10 | +0.3% | -0.0% | 4.2 | 50% |
Drift T-20 by NVDA regime
| Bucket | N | Mean | Median | Std | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Up | 15 | +5.3% | +1.9% | 12.9 | 67% |
| Mild Up | 11 | +3.5% | -1.5% | 7.3 | 45% |
| Mild Down n<10 | 5 | +1.7% | -0.3% | 7.2 | 40% |
| Sideways | 12 | +1.6% | +2.0% | 10.1 | 50% |
| Strong Down n<10 | 3 | -11.8% | -15.0% | 9.7 | 33% |
Documented pre-announcements
No documented pre-announcements in the registry.
Expected move vs actual (our nightly ATM data)
| Report date | Expected move | Actual reaction | Gap | Actual / EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 13.1% | -3.4% | -10.0% | 0.26x |
| 2026-02-11 | 19.3% | -7.4% | -4.6% | 0.38x |
Only cycles inside our own options-database coverage window are shown — we do not fabricate historical implied volatility. Coverage grows each quarter.
Options strategy P&L — priced from our own chains
No earnings cycles inside our chain coverage window yet — this section fills in automatically as coverage grows.
Every earnings cycle
| Report | Pre | Drift20 | Gap | React | +5d | +20d | MFE | MAE | HV20 | NVDA / VIX | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 Wednesday | +11.0% | -10.0% | -3.4% | -2.8% | -11.1% | +2.8% | -15.3% | 52% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -9% | |
| 2026-02-11 Wednesday | -17.7% | -4.6% | -7.4% | -1.4% | -7.0% | +0.1% | -18.5% | 45% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +11% | |
| 2025-11-05 Wednesday | -4.9% | +9.1% | +14.8% | +4.5% | +3.5% | +22.0% | +6.2% | 27% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +13% | |
| 2025-07-30 Wednesday | -2.8% | -1.5% | -9.8% | -7.0% | -3.8% | +0.1% | -18.6% | 24% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -3% | |
| 2025-05-07 Wednesday | 1 | +16.9% | +7.7% | +13.1% | +1.2% | -0.9% | +17.0% | +5.1% | 51% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +4% |
| 2025-02-12 Wednesday | -0.5% | +8.5% | +0.9% | -2.3% | -21.3% | +10.9% | -23.6% | 27% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +3% | |
| 2024-11-06 Wednesday | +12.2% | +4.4% | +13.0% | +1.0% | +6.6% | +24.7% | +2.8% | 25% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +22% | |
| 2024-07-31 Wednesday | +10.9% | +4.4% | +3.8% | -7.1% | +4.8% | +12.6% | -8.8% | 47% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +20% | |
| 2024-05-01 Wednesday | -0.3% | +7.5% | +15.2% | +4.6% | +2.5% | +24.1% | +4.5% | 33% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +12% | |
| 2024-02-21 Wednesday | -5.8% | +4.8% | +9.9% | -0.6% | +10.9% | +22.5% | +4.1% | 38% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +6% | |
| 2023-11-01 Wednesday | -5.0% | +7.0% | +10.8% | +5.2% | +7.6% | +25.5% | +3.7% | 38% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +15% | |
| 2023-08-02 Wednesday | +12.2% | +2.9% | -1.9% | -0.3% | +3.8% | +3.0% | -7.2% | 38% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +49% | |
| 2023-05-09 Tuesday | -2.9% | +7.4% | +10.2% | +2.1% | +12.6% | +27.4% | +4.8% | 47% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +628% | |
| 2023-02-21 Tuesday | -3.6% | +3.9% | +2.5% | -0.7% | -28.2% | +5.7% | -40.4% | 49% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -49% | |
| 2022-11-07 Monday | 1 | -17.3% | -20.1% | -7.7% | +12.8% | +2.9% | +13.5% | -20.8% | 67% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +178% |
| 2022-08-03 Wednesday | +19.4% | +0.2% | -3.6% | +0.3% | -13.9% | +4.4% | -17.5% | 47% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +34% | |
| 2022-05-02 Monday | -15.0% | -4.0% | -7.0% | -15.6% | +7.0% | +4.3% | -26.6% | 48% | Strong Down / High (>25) | -52% | |
| 2022-02-15 Tuesday | +6.0% | +1.0% | -0.2% | -10.8% | -11.4% | +1.9% | -22.3% | 62% | Sideways / High (>25) | +102% | |
| 2021-11-03 Wednesday | -1.9% | +1.9% | +12.1% | -3.1% | -10.6% | +16.9% | -2.9% | 34% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -24% | |
| 2021-08-04 Wednesday | -5.1% | -3.4% | -6.5% | -9.7% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -22.2% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +19% | |
| 2021-05-05 Wednesday | -6.2% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -4.4% | +0.2% | +3.3% | -7.2% | 29% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +26% | |
| 2021-02-17 Wednesday | +9.4% | -1.1% | -5.1% | -4.8% | -19.4% | -0.3% | -27.8% | 32% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | -56% | |
| 2020-11-04 Wednesday | -1.1% | +0.6% | +3.8% | +5.0% | +16.0% | +21.3% | +0.5% | 27% | Sideways / High (>25) | +25% | |
| 2020-08-05 Wednesday | +8.7% | +3.4% | +3.1% | -7.0% | -2.8% | +7.0% | -9.2% | 36% | Strong Up / Medium (15-25) | +394% | |
| 2020-05-06 Wednesday | +37.2% | +1.9% | +2.9% | -7.4% | -2.3% | +5.3% | -7.7% | 63% | Strong Up / High (>25) | +24% | |
| 2020-02-19 Wednesday | +0.7% | -2.0% | +1.5% | -12.5% | -41.2% | +7.0% | -46.3% | 27% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +295% | |
| 2019-11-06 Wednesday | -9.7% | -1.7% | +0.6% | +9.8% | +18.5% | +25.5% | -6.2% | 41% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +46% | |
| 2019-08-07 Wednesday | -6.5% | +5.8% | +15.2% | +2.4% | +2.1% | +25.4% | +5.8% | 22% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | +149% | |
| 2019-05-07 Tuesday | +9.6% | +0.1% | -4.9% | +3.1% | +1.6% | +3.6% | -7.2% | 21% | Mild Down / Medium (15-25) | -25% | |
| 2019-02-13 Wednesday | +23.6% | -8.0% | +2.5% | -0.9% | +1.7% | +10.4% | -10.9% | 24% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +600% | |
| 2018-11-06 Tuesday | +1.3% | +4.0% | +3.4% | -4.5% | -4.5% | +7.6% | -10.6% | 35% | Strong Down / Medium (15-25) | +586% | |
| 2018-08-07 Tuesday | +4.5% | -0.4% | -5.2% | +0.6% | +3.9% | +2.1% | -7.4% | 23% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +66% | |
| 2018-05-02 Wednesday | +8.5% | -0.8% | +10.6% | +3.3% | +3.5% | +17.7% | -0.8% | 23% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +290% | |
| 2018-02-14 Wednesday | +14.1% | -1.3% | +2.5% | +1.0% | +6.6% | +10.6% | -7.1% | 24% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +250% | |
| 2017-11-01 Wednesday | +1.9% | -2.4% | -2.3% | +4.2% | +2.2% | +5.8% | -6.9% | 21% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +252% | |
| 2017-08-02 Wednesday | +0.3% | -3.9% | +1.9% | -1.7% | +8.4% | +12.7% | -13.7% | 24% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +53% | |
| 2017-05-03 Wednesday | +9.1% | -2.6% | -2.0% | +0.5% | +2.8% | +3.9% | -5.1% | 17% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +52% | |
| 2017-02-15 Wednesday | +9.1% | -2.3% | +8.4% | -0.4% | -0.8% | +14.2% | -3.0% | 31% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +42% | |
| 2016-11-02 Wednesday | -8.0% | -4.5% | +1.7% | +9.6% | +6.3% | +23.7% | -5.0% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +14% | |
| 2016-08-03 Wednesday | +11.7% | -1.6% | -5.3% | -11.0% | -1.5% | -0.3% | -16.7% | 25% | Strong Up / Low (<15) | +7% | |
| 2016-05-09 Monday | +9.1% | +0.6% | -0.7% | -7.7% | +12.7% | +13.7% | -12.4% | 33% | Sideways / Low (<15) | +11% | |
| 2016-02-10 Wednesday | 1 | -21.7% | +5.6% | +8.0% | +1.1% | +7.8% | +21.1% | -0.6% | 84% | Strong Down / High (>25) | +6% |
| 2015-11-05 Thursday | -2.7% | +4.1% | +13.8% | -4.5% | -2.5% | +17.1% | +4.1% | 34% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | -8% | |
| 2015-08-06 Thursday | -2.6% | +4.8% | +5.8% | -4.8% | -3.7% | +12.4% | -4.3% | 34% | Mild Up / Low (<15) | +17% | |
| 2015-05-07 Thursday | +5.8% | +1.6% | +8.8% | +6.5% | +6.2% | +19.3% | +1.6% | 28% | Sideways / Medium (15-25) | +29% | |
| 2015-02-05 Thursday | -1.5% | +3.4% | +5.4% | -1.8% | +5.5% | +19.2% | -1.0% | 29% | Mild Up / Medium (15-25) | +3% |
Methodology: reaction day = first trading day after the report (AMC assumed). Regimes are 20-trading-day returns (NVDA/SPY/SOX) and VIX close on the report date. Historical implied volatility before our options-DB coverage window (Nov 2025) is NOT reconstructed — realized volatility (HV20) is shown instead. Options strategy P&L and IV crush are priced from OUR OWN stored option chains (one row per contract per pull) for every cycle inside coverage; both sections grow automatically each quarter. Buckets with n<10 are exploratory. Correlation is not causation; small samples dominate the pre-announcement analysis. Pre-announcement registry: screeners/earnings_analysis/preannouncements_QTWO.json.
Automated, data-driven · educational only · not financial advice.